Tortoise investor

Scores on the doors: an 'OK' year having lagged indices. My financial year ends Xmas eve. '25: 8.5% '24: 21.1%  '23: 8.55%  '22: -14.0%  '21: 28.81%  '20: 24.61%  '19: 19.08%  '18: -8.8%   '17: 18.4%   '16: 4.8%   '15: 4.2%    '14: 25.2% Cumultative: 246.1% CAGR: 10.9%

I asked ChatGPT to analyse what's happened since 2024. In '24 it says the cover was ~2.5 to 4.0 range and this year has been ~2.6–3.2. So maybe slightly softer but not as much in it as I previously thought.

I'm just looking at some of the recent T-Bill placements. I'm sure the bid-to-cover ratios used to be better than this??

Definitely not regretting this... I'm now at 62% cash and down -3.1% YTD. My guide is 2022: the market gradually ground down during the year as the impact of inflation became clear. So I think we've got further to go yet.

@ShareSpeculator On days like today do you tend to hold back? Or monitor the potential for a rebound tomorrow?

Applied Nutrition #APN. I was obviously hoping that “accelerated demand” in H1 would have continued into H2 (as these things so often do), resulting in upgraded forecasts. Not this time. Very nasty open for the markets not helping either. Sold in the opening auction at 210p. 6.6% Loss (after stamp). It’s turning into a bit of a crappy month.

Buried in footnote 8 of #MEGP results 🤔 Now we know why the auditors took longer than planned. Yet no upfront acknowledgement from management.

@CapitalPmh It's all guesswork but the market bottom might now be more linked to inflation rather than Trump's decision-making? I'm always reminded how in 2022 the market decline was gradual rather than sudden, as the reality of inflation became clear.

Have we finally reached a market bottom? Indeed following Trump's comments last night - that he is "considering ‘winding down’ Iran operations" - spread betters are predicting a positive start at Monday's bell (+0.5% UK equities) on the back of a decline in WTI crude prices (-1.6%).

@MartinSLewis How do most people financially plan? It's much more meaningful to me personally to say bills will rise by £x a month, rather than an annual figure. Sometimes I wonder if some journalists are choosing an annual figure purely for the attention grabbing headline.

I’m seeing some confused reporting today that "Cornwall Insight is prediction the energy Priec Cap will rise by £332 a year in July." That's not possible as each new Cap only lasts 3mths and Cornwall's prediction is only about the July one. A closer description would be "Cornwall Insight is predicting that the July to Sept Price Cap will rise by 20%." Still horrid, but the £332 figure really doesn't cut it for many reasons. 1. The July Price Cap only lasts 3mths not a year. Cornwall gives an annualised figure, but that has to be pro-rata'd over the time period, which is equivalent to a rough rise of £80 over the July-Sept Cap. 2. The £332 figure is based on Ofgem’s “typical use” annual benchmark - yet many use more and many less than that. The Cap itself doesn't limit the total you can pay, it limits the unit rate and standing charges of domestic customers on firm's Standard Variable tariffs. 3. The following Price Cap, starting October will be based on wholesale markets from mid-May to mid-August (and each subsequent Cap over the next year even further out). Clearly we are not there yet. If the conflict is over by then the Oct Cap could drop again, if its not, it could get even higher. Cornwalls prediction is specifically only for the July Price Cap not those further out (some others firms do public predictions further out)

It's also possible I am underrating the potential of Mortal Shell II given its engagement on social media: x.com/MortalShellGame However, it sounds like this is a H2 launch so HY might still look a bit weak if Raccoin doesn't deliver.

Some thoughts from me on the Trufin #TRU update today 👇🏻

@ShareSpeculator Well done. Tbh I tend to be glass half-empty in my approach to the stock market so the rest of the market might be less cautious! Do think there is a risk of HY being below investors' expectations.

Sold Trufin #TRU at 126.4p. 0.5% Gain. I wasn’t sure about giving it any longer this morning, I suspect @InvestTortoise had the right idea. Strong 2025 but momentum into 2026 looks to be weaker.

#TRU: 'Group revenue for the two months ended 28 February 2026 [is]... not less than £9.3m'. What they don't say is last year it was £14.8m.... No mention of the January platform announcement that I can see which might also unnerve the market.

FY26 upgraded 11% by Cavendish. This now trades below 10 p/e. Good entry point in my opinion.

I've bought #TPFG ahead of results tomorrow. Looks much more reasonably priced now for a steady compounder that might beat expectations tomorrow. p/e high has been more like 15-20 in the past so there could be decent upside from these levels.

@ShareSpeculator Good luck. I'm on the other side of the trade... they'd already hinted at being H2 weighted and I noticed Mortal Shell 2 timeline is now into H2 too. I've therefore banked profits in current market conditions and will see what results say tomorrow! store.steampowered.com/news/app/25842…

Bought some Trufin #TRU. 125.8p

Everyone's guessing but, based on history of high oil prices, I'm betting the Middle East war to have lasting inflationary impact. I sold heavily today and now in about 50% cash and at break-even for '26. Should have acted sooner - it was obvious America would attack!

Me checking on my portfolio just now

EDIT: my image cut off the fund inflows in the £1.8bn AI fund. Here they are:

And finally, the £5.7bn Technology Trust:

#POLR had an incredible February. I estimate AuM has now increased 13.9% since the end of December - potentially to around £30.8bn AuM. @equity_research estimates assume £28.4bn AuM for y/e 3/26. We could be looking at large performance fees. 🧵