Vaibhav Joshi

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Keep a close watch on speciality Chemical 👀 looks like a start of an upcycle.

Regime change in West Bengal will benifit Baazar Style 🔥🔥

One thing I think the market still hasn’t fully processed about $SAMMAANCAP is that people are largely valuing it based on what it used to be, not what it is becoming. The stock is still mentally trapped in the Indiabulls Housing era: wholesale exposure, NBFC crisis baggage, promoter overhang, governance concerns, high funding costs, etc. But structurally, this is now a very different company. The original promoter has completely exited. The board is professionally run. Former RBI Deputy Governor S.S. Mundra chairs the company. And now Abu Dhabi’s IHC has come in as the strategic promoter with an ₹8,850 crore commitment. That is a massive shift in institutional quality and perception. 📈 What’s particularly interesting is the valuation disconnect that still exists despite the balance sheet transformation already underway. After receiving the first tranche of ₹5,652 crore on March 31, 2026, net worth increased to roughly ₹28,075 crore. Now many people see the higher net worth and assume book value per share automatically exploded upwards, but the important nuance is that the equity base also expanded significantly after the allotment. Post dilution: • Net worth: ~₹28,075 crore • Shares outstanding: ~115.87 crore • BVPS: ~₹242.3/share Even after adjusting for dilution, the stock still trades at a very meaningful discount to book despite having one of the strongest capital positions in the sector with capital adequacy above 33%. The really important thing here is not just the current book value. It’s what the earnings power could look like over the next few years if the liability side rerates. Historically the company paid elevated borrowing costs because the market never fully trusted the franchise after the IL&FS period. But now the company is backed by a sovereign linked global institution through IHC/Judan Financial. Ratings have already improved to AA+/Stable and management has openly indicated expectations of meaningful reduction in borrowing costs over time. For an NBFC, even a 150–200 bps reduction in cost of funds can completely change ROE dynamics. That’s where operating leverage becomes very powerful. ⚡ At the same time, the business model itself has changed. This is no longer the aggressive balance sheet heavy wholesale lender the market remembers. The company has been steadily running down the legacy book while scaling a retail focused growth book through co lending, mortgages, MSME secured loans, and digital origination. The co lending structure itself is important because it allows Sammaan to originate and distribute loans while keeping capital efficiency much higher than before. So the market may still be applying old valuation logic to what is increasingly becoming a cleaner, more retail oriented, institutionally backed NBFC platform. And this is usually how reratings happen. First the market doubts survival. Then it ignores recovery. Then it slowly accepts normalized earnings. And only later does it start assigning better multiples once trust returns. It rarely happens all at once. To me, Sammaan looks like a company somewhere in the middle of that transition phase where perception still lags reality. If execution continues, funding costs normalize, asset quality remains stable, and the retail strategy scales well, I don’t think the current valuation will sustain forever relative to the transformed balance sheet and improving earnings profile. The market spent years pricing in the destruction of the old story. It may eventually have to start pricing the emergence of a completely new one. $SAMMAANCAP

Very few people are paying attention to what could be unfolding in Balaji Amines and Mitsu Chem Plast right now 👀 Both companies went through a brutal slowdown over the last 2 years because of global destocking, weak exports and margin pressure. But the latest numbers suggest the cycle may finally be turning. Balaji Amines just reported: Q4 revenue up 11.5% EBITDA up 58% PAT up almost 58% EBITDA margins expanded from 16.9% to 23.9% This is important because chemical companies have huge operating leverage. Once utilization improves, profits can explode much faster than revenues. Management is also commissioning multiple new projects including DME and Acetonitrile capacity in FY27 while aggressively scaling specialty chemicals through Balaji Specialty Chemicals. The really interesting part is the long term possibility. Current FY26 revenue is around ₹1450 crore. But several reports and management commentary now point toward a possible path to ₹3000 crore revenue over the next few years if specialty chemicals, pharma intermediates and downstream derivatives scale successfully. And if EBITDA margins sustain even in the 18% to 22% range, earnings can look dramatically different from current levels. Now look at Mitsu Chem Plast. This one is much smaller and much riskier but the optionality is huge. Latest Q4 PAT jumped 118% YoY while margins expanded sharply. Management is entering the IBC business, expanding healthcare furniture and targeting around 30% growth in FY27. Even more interesting, they are talking about a potential ₹1000 crore revenue ambition by FY28. That is massive considering the current scale of the company. The market still thinks this is just another packaging company. But if Mitsu successfully transitions toward medical applications, industrial bulk packaging and value added manufacturing, the entire earnings profile can rerate. Of course risks remain. Balaji still faces Chinese competition and chemical cyclicality. Mitsu still carries classic smallcap execution risk. But these are exactly the kind of companies that can quietly compound for years when the cycle turns and product mix starts improving. Feels like we may still be very early in this story.

One thing I’ve realized in investing is that sometimes 2 companies can operate in the exact same sector… but management quality and expectation setting changes everything 👀 Best example right now is Kaynes Technology vs Avalon Technologies Both are riding India’s EMS manufacturing boom. Both are exposed to themes like railways, EVs, aerospace, industrial electronics and import substitution. But the market is treating them very differently now. Kaynes came into FY26 with massive hype. Management guided for around ₹4500 crore revenue which meant 50%+ growth. The market got excited and priced the stock like nothing could go wrong. Then reality kicked in. Railway approvals got delayed. Smart meter execution slowed. Working capital stretched. Guidance first got revised to ₹4100 crore and even that eventually got missed. Final FY26 revenue came around ₹3626 crore. That’s almost ₹900 crore lower than the original target. And when a stock is priced for perfection, these misses hurt badly. The stock corrected almost 48% from peak levels. Now look at Avalon. Completely different vibe. Management stayed conservative. No flashy promises. No unrealistic projections. Just steady execution quarter after quarter. And the market rewarded that consistency. The stock quietly delivered more than 54% returns in the last 1 year while sentiment around many EMS names remained weak 📈 What’s interesting is that I still think Kaynes can become a much bigger company over the next decade because the opportunity size in Indian electronics manufacturing is enormous. India is still in the early innings of EMS growth. But this phase is teaching an important lesson: Growth alone is not enough. Expectation management matters just as much. Right now Avalon feels like the steadier compounder while Kaynes feels more like a high beta execution story. And honestly… some of the best compounders are usually the companies quietly delivering numbers instead of aggressively selling future dreams.