
Invictus
1.8K posts




















$ZEC What most people noticed last cycle was that ZEC made a lower high on its USD pair, and therefore concluded that is was and will always be an under performer. It also bled profusely against its BTC and ETH pair, giving more credence to it continuing to underperform in the future. What most people dont consider though is the tokenomics of ZEC and what was going on during that period of time. ZEC's tokenomics are the exact same as BTCs. The supply is capped at 21 million, and the supply is issued through block rewards starting at 50 coins per block, then 25 after the first 4 year halving (2020), and then 12.5 after the 2nd 4 year halving (2024). Therefore, most of the supply was being released leading up to the past two cycles. In fact, ~52% of the total supply was released by its 1st halving (Nov 2020) and ~78% has now been released as of its 2nd halving (Nov 2024). Shown in the first photo is where ZEC currently is compared to BTCs circulating supply today. Because so much supply came in between its launch cycle (2017) and its 2nd bull cycle (2020), I think it should have been expected to underperform in USD terms, and a better metric to compare performance would be market cap. Looking at the market cap (2nd photo) it did make a higher high and a higher low (could also be argued to be a double bottom). Looking into the future, the rate of supply issuance will drastically be reduced, and by the next 4 year cycle and halving (Nov 2028), ~90% of the supply will be circulating. Because less and less supply is being issues, and the multi cycle marketcap is trending upwards, I expect ZEC to drastically outperform its performance during the 2021 cycle. We are also starting to see this outperformance take place in its ZEC/BTC and ZEC/ETH charts. The downward trend and underperformance seems to be coming to an end.



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