Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar

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Iran War Impact on Myanmar Opens Up Opportunity for India ______ ■ Seema Sengupta (The views and opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect the policies or positions of ISP-Myanmar.) West Asia, a cauldron of conflicts, is burning violently. As war wages on after the February 28 assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a joint US-Israeli raid, its impact has sparked global repercussions. Following energy disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which affected nearly 20 percent of global oil and LNG supply, Myanmar is also in distress. Even though the World Bank noted signs of a moderate recovery in late 2025, continued contraction in the overall economy, together with the West Asian crisis, further destabilized Southeast Asia’s weakest economy... ...As a major oil refining hub and the world’s fourth-largest refining nation, India will look to bolster Myanmar’s limited refining capacity, as the country relies heavily on imports of refined petroleum products. Click the link to read the full colum and comments your thoughts on this piece! #ISPColumn ispmyanmar.com/iran-war-impac…

Read this ISP Outlook in Burmese: ispmyanmar.com/burmese/ol2026…

Our inaugural ISP Outlook issue, "Naypyitawlogy Outlook: Regime Alteration and Four Equilibriums to be Watched," dissects the recent March 2026 top-level reshuffles within the Tatmadaw and analyzes the strategic implications of Snr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing’s anticipated shift to a civilian presidency. We're pleased to bring to you ISP Outlook, a new series designed to provide strategic foresight into Myanmar's trajectory over the next 3 to 6 months. Moving forward, ISP Outlook will regularly feature evidence-based analysis of emerging trends and key drivers from our core research desks. Read ISP Outlook No. 1 here: ispmyanmar.com/ol2026-01/ #ISPMyanmar #ISPOutlook #Naypyitawlogy #Myanmar #Tatmadaw

If the global oil supply chain were disrupted, Myanmar would quickly face fuel shortages and surging prices. That would come on top of an already severe mix of socioeconomic distress, high inflation, and ongoing armed conflict Stay informed on Myanmar's affairs, subscribe for our latest analysis and updates: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI… #Myanmar #Socioeconomics #Inflation #Conflict #Transportation #Agriculture #Textiles #Electricity

Myanmar imports 67.5 percent of its fuel from Singapore. Singapore's own exports heavily depend on crude oil imported from the Middle East. Compounding this risk, Myanmar's strategic reserves cover only 40 days of consumption. This falls dangerously below the internationally recommended 60 to 90 days. #Myanmar #Fuel #OilShock #Singapore

As a war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran ripples across the Middle East, the resulting oil shock is reaching Myanmar, too. Myanmar’s energy security is so vulnerable that it can be easily compromised. Our latest ISP On Point analyzes the cascading impacts of this global fuel shock on Myanmar's economy and stability. Read the full here: ispmyanmar.com/op2026-01/ #ISPMyanmar #OnPoint #Myanmar #Energy #Security #Fuel #Crisis #Iran

Episode 11 of the 30 Minutes with the ISP is now available on YouTube with English Subtitles. In this episode, our panel of emerging researchers discussed Myanmar's growing role as a drug hub and what it means for the future of its youth. Stay tuned, more episodes are coming soon, with English subtitles. Don't forget to subscribe so you never miss an update! Watch the full video here: youtube.com/watch?v=wdl_EF… #ISPMyanmar #30MinuteswiththeISP #Myanmar #Narcotics #Youth

This is the ISP’s translation of the original Burmese version published on December 30, 2025. Read the original Burmese version here: ispmyanmar.com/burmese/column…

We are pleased to share our latest curated collection: ISP Column: Most Read and Engaged Columns 2025. This collection brings together the ten columns that generated the highest readership and engagement among our audiences, selected from the 105 ISP Columns published by ISP-Myanmar over the year. The columns span a wide range of topics, from poverty and conflict to social media culture and political power, reflecting the conversations that mattered most to our readers. These columns are translated by ISP-Myanmar to faithfully convey the intended meaning of the original Burmese versions. Read the full collection and let us know your thoughts! Read here: ispmyanmar.com/columnt10s2025/ #ISPMyanmar #ISPColumns #Myanmar

Our eleventh 30 Minutes with the ISP event, titled "The Narcotics Domestication: Myanmar's Next Generation at Risk," explored the alarming surge in drug production and domestic consumption in Myanmar since the 2021 coup. Our panelists discussed how the country is increasingly becoming a major drug hub, severely risking the future of its youth. The discussion highlighted how the mass production of synthetic drugs has become a central pillar of Myanmar’s conflict economy, driving record-level seizures that still represent only a fraction of the country's total output. Read the full recap memo, and let us know your thoughts below. Read here: ispmyanmar.com/the-narcotics-… #ISPMyanmar #30MinutesWithTheISP #SocioEconomicStudies #ConflictEconomy #Myanmar #Narcotics #PublicHealth

The amendment also removed the requirement for Tribunal members to submit regular reports to the Hluttaw Speakers. It also scrapped the provision granting the Combined Assembly of the Union the authority to amend, supplement, or repeal the law. The current amendment establishes the Tribunal’s interpretations and opinions as binding and robust, thereby significantly expanding its authority. Stay informed on Myanmar's affairs, subscribe for our latest analysis and updates: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI… #ConstitutionalTribunaloftheUnionLaw #AmendedProvisions

By placing the member selection process solely under the President's discretion and significantly expanding the Tribunal's jurisdiction, these changes create a trajectory toward infinite presidential power, potentially institutionalizing a system of personalized authoritarianism. Read this Governance Tracker in Burmese: ispmyanmar.com/burmese/2026gt… #Myanmar #Hluttaw #PersonalisticAuthorianism

The State Security and Peace Council’s (SSPC) recent amendments to the Constitutional Tribunal Law were enacted on January 24, 2026. These amendments—the third in the law's history—fundamentally alter the Tribunal's composition and authority. Our latest Governance Tracker (2026 Series, No. 1) analyzes these amendments. Read the full here: ispmyanmar.com/2026gt-01/ #ISPMyanmar #GovernanceTracker #Myanmar #ConstitutionalTribunaloftheUnionLaw

The KNA now controls key sections of the Myanmar-Thailand border trade. They now jointly control alternative trade routes like Htawtkawkoe, Kyat Ou Taung, and the 1018 route, which have replaced the closed No. 1 Asian Highway. Stay informed on Myanmar's affairs, subscribe for our latest analysis and updates: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI… #ISPMapping #KarenState #Myanmar #Thailand #BorderTrade

As crackdowns on Kyar Phyant (online scam) networks widen, the KNA’s changes became a notable inflection point in Karen State’s increasingly entangled conflict economy. Read this Political & Conflict Economy Tracker in Burmese: ispmyanmar.com/burmese/2026pe… #Myanmar #BGF #KNA #KarenState #ConflictEconomy

On January 1, 2026, the Karen Border Guard Force (BGF) rebranded itself as the Karen National Army (KNA). The rebranding remains muddled, with only two of four brigades joining in the shift; the other two continue to operate as BGF units. Our latest Political & Conflict Economy Tracker (2026 Series, No. 2) examines these shifts in the security and economic landscape of Karen State. Read full here: ispmyanmar.com/2026pet-02/ #ISPMyanmar #Political #Conflict #Economy #Tracker #KarenState

The reshuffle pattern points to the continued sidelining of generals senior to General Kyaw Swar Lin (DSA-35), who is widely tipped to succeed the junta leader as commander-in-chief. Most Chiefs and BSO commanders who lead the General staff, Adjutant General, and Quartermaster General (G, A, and Q) operations, as well as Regional Military Commanders, are now all fourth-generation officers. A few exceptions left are the Judge Advocate General, the Quartermaster General, the Chief of Staff (Air Force), and the Chief of Engineer (Navy). Stay informed on Myanmar's affairs, subscribe for our latest analysis and updates: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI… #Tatmadaw #FourthGeneration #Leadership #Myanmar #Military

The junta leader is micromanaging this generational transition in line with his own preferences, elevating loyal protégés from within his patronage network. This is likely to further consolidate his influence over the armed forces. Read this Stakeholder Tracker in Burmese: ispmyanmar.com/burmese/2026st… #Myanmar #FourthGeneration #Tatmadaw

A fourth-generation transition is clearly taking shape within the Tatmadaw's senior ranks, orchestrated by junta leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. Our latest ISP Stakeholder Tracker No. 1 (2026 Series) details leadership changes within the Myanmar Armed Forces. Read here: ispmyanmar.com/2026st-01/ #ISPMyanmar #Myanmar #Stakeholder #Tracker #Tatmadaw