Israel Radar

The most important development in the war is that it's still going, and looks like it will continue for several more weeks. This ensures absolutely massive damage in Iran, well beyond what most observers expected. Tens of thousands of regime assets hit and destroyed.

People want winners or losers, but that's not how wars work. Here is the most probable scenario: 1. The war is unlikely to end with a negotiated ceasefire. President Trump will likely declare we're done and give the Iranians 48 hours to stop, or we resume stronger and harder. Alternatively, the UN Security Council votes for an abrupt halt. 2. Once the shooting stops, the Iranian regime will return to its pre-war shattered economy, water shortages in Tehran and most of the country, poverty, and despair. It will now have to repress Iranians with a much weaker and far less experienced security apparatus. 3. If the regime survives the war and popular anger, it will face severe isolation, especially from its Gulf neighbors, making reconstruction extremely difficult. Tehran in 2026 will resemble Baghdad in 1991: the regime still in place, declaring victory for defying the superpower, but a shadow of its former self. Iran's ability to project power beyond its borders will be minimal (even with whatever missile stocks remain). 4. With the Iranian regime muddling through and the rest of the region moving on, the chances for revival of IMEC increase. Arab-Israeli normalization will resume, especially as spoilers have been weakened. The Gaza Strip will remain as it is today for a long time, and probably Lebanon too. 5. Israel will not let go of Lebanon without full Hezbollah disarmament. It will likely wait out Hezbollah's missile stock to run out and will continue policing like it did throughout 2025. 6. Turkey will try to inherit Iran's regional role, especially in Lebanon, Iraq and Gaza (Turkey already got Syria). It will run into an Israeli and Arab wall. Turkey has less than three years remaining to become the new boss in the Arab region (after which Barrack will be out of office). Its chances of success are slim.

Iranian missile with cluster munitions hits Haifa refinery, causes some local electricity outages; Energy Minister Eli Cohen says limited damage caused (N12 News) Interesting to see how Israel will respond to this attack.

Israeli strike on Iranian gas field is not likely to be repeated, according to Israeli officials. The attack was coordinated with the US, they say, and Trump's subsequent comments did not surprise Israel. via Reuters

Israel’s security cabinet met last night; ministers were told war is expected to continue for several more weeks (Ynet)

IRAN UPDATE: Israel estimates that Iranian regime is on verge of losing control due to ongoing eliminations and strikes; Iran’s leadership is in total chaos, says senior Israeli source. Israel intends to make the internal crisis in Iran worse in the coming days; plans include “unusual and powerful action” that hasn’t been done before to directly undermine the regime’s ability to govern. “We want to create a breaking point,” says the Israeli source; the aim is to show the Iranian public that it’s game over for the regime. via N12 News

Israeli strike targeted 20% of Iran's gas processing capacity, Ynet reports. Senior Israeli source says more surprises coming up against Iran's energy sector.

Joint US-Israeli assault on Iran is a new military partnership model that could replace NATO-style alliances. Interesting analysis 👇

Israel believes US is planning to take over Strait of Hormuz; operation is expected to take 2 weeks, US military is pouring more forces to the region; Israel is also expected to take part. via Kan News

Israel In, NATO Out? The current war in the Middle East could upend the partnership model that has shaped American policy since World War II. In its place, a new model is emerging and now being implemented by the U.S. and Israel against Iran. Beyond providing an opportunity to upgrade Israel’s relations with its most important strategic partner, the U.S.–Israeli model could reshape the global geopolitical landscape. In the 20th century, a formal defense alliance became the dominant model for U.S. partners. Under this framework, Washington extended its conventional and nuclear deterrence umbrella over other nations. In return, allies subordinated themselves to American policy and, in most cases, relinquished their ambition to possess nuclear weapons. Israel has always been the exception. While relying on U.S. military, diplomatic, and economic support, it also functioned in practice as an extraordinary strategic asset – essentially an American aircraft carrier in the Middle East – while relinquishing only minimal freedom of action and remaining exempt, according to foreign sources of course, from the nuclear restrictions Washington imposed on others. President Trump had already eroded the American commitment to NATO and to U.S. allies during his previous term, and even more so in the past year when he threatened to take control of Greenland. In recent days, NATO members rejected his call to join efforts to defend freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz against Iranian aggression. Meanwhile, the U.S. has for the first time gone to war alongside Israel, a country that is not bound to Washington by a formal alliance. Moreover, this is a joint U.S.–Israeli initiative carried out independently, not as part of a broader coalition. The IDF is not only helping the U.S. achieve the objectives set by the President. It’s also protecting American assets and troops in the region while providing the U.S. Air Force with a real combat laboratory that will improve its performance and enhance the reputation of American weapons platforms. Before the war, the U.S. declared in its National Defense Strategy that Israel is a “model ally.” In the current campaign, Israel is delivering on that promise, in a big way. Israel is stepping into the vacuum created by NATO’s weakening and presenting the world with a new partnership model – one that does not rely on a full American security umbrella or boots on the ground, but instead combines the strengths of both countries and is ready for action at the moment of truth. Israel must leverage this new model after the war to preserve the U.S. aid package for another decade, even though PM Netanyahu has already announced that he intends to gradually phase it out. More importantly, a new framework for relations with Washington must be created that reflects Israel’s new status. This framework should guarantee access to the most advanced platforms, faster development and procurement processes, and joint investment in technological superiority: artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, critical materials, energy, and semiconductors. NATO may not have said its final word yet. But we are witnessing the beginning of a new geopolitical era: an age of strategic autonomy where America’s most valuable allies will grow stronger, while those that fail to adapt and act in genuine partnership will be left behind. Dr. Avner Golov, vice president of MIND Israel