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It occurs to me that after this account's retirement I should link to the project I've been doing for the last year and a half.
It's just for fun, and has nothing whatsoever to do with politics.
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Israeli Elections Live
7.5K posts
Israeli Elections Live
@IsraelexLive
Retired account that used to provide mathematical and legal analysis of Israeli elections.
Jerusalem, Israel Katılım Nisan 2019
166 Takip Edilen3.2K Takipçiler
@Juan_Ostrovsky @Arithmomaniac No poll showed him quite that low. And even if it were true - that would be Lapid saving his political career at the expense of the bloc's success. See blogs.timesofisrael.com/who-gains-and-…
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@IsraelexLive @Arithmomaniac Lapid was not going to cross the threshold or was going to be complete irrelevant (4-5 seats)
I think this was the cause
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Comparing each polling firm's last poll before the Bennett-Lapid merger and first poll after:
Maagar Mochot: 21+6=26
Kantar: 20+6=24
Midgam: 21+7=26
Lazar: 24+7=27
Filber: 10+4=20
With the exception of Filber (who always does his own thing) they all agree this was a mistake.
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@Arithmomaniac But if a Lapid voter flees Bennett to vote for the Democrats, that doesn't mean no harm done. Once a voter leaves their natural political home, the drive to vote lessens.
Inclement weather, a minor cold, other inconveniences - they'll be the first to stay home on election day.
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@Arithmomaniac Some polls show the opposition as a whole doing better after the merger; others show the coalition doing better. But, Filber excepted, the differences are all within the margin of error (one or two seats). So it's likely the missing seats stayed within the bloc. (1/2)
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@IsraelexLive I personally don't think they *didn't* think this would likely happen; I think it was worth it to Bennett to remove competition for leader of the opposition.
(I'm sure you've heard that take, yet are still not convinced.)
Welcome back 🙂
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I'm seeing celebrations/lamentations that the merged party will be larger than the Likud.
Even if true (and it is by no means certain), that doesn't matter. All three politicians involved have been PM despite not heading the largest party at the time.
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Okay, I'm here for a bit.
Some people love Bennett but hate Lapid. Call this number "x".
Some people love Lapid but hate Bennett. Call this number "y".
Some people will be roused to vote for the combo who would not vote otherwise. Call this number "z".
Is z greater than x+y?
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@DavidAFrench David, I have listened to every single AO episode since the very first one - the one that you joke that was recorded in a bathroom.
I *know* you know better than to take Iran's word for 1) what happened, 2) how it happened, and 3) who it happened to.
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This is utterly horrifying. A complete and thorough investigation is necessary.
Malachy Browne@malachybrowne
At least 115 people, most of them likely children, were killed in the strike on a girls’ school in Iran, officials & state media say. The school is near a naval base that was hit by two other strikes during US & Israeli attacks, videos show. With @el72champs, @SanamMahoozi. #girls-school-strike-iran-video" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">nytimes.com/live/2026/03/0…
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@EylonALevy I don’t disagree.
I would ask you to understand the price for people like me has been extreme. I literally don’t know if I have a future in this country anymore.
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Thank God Almighty and American voters that this woman is not President right now.
In a parallel universe, Khamenei is presiding over a military parade unveiling Iran’s nuclear warheads right now.
Clash Report@clashreport
Kamala Harris on Iran: Donald Trump has dragged us into a war the American people do not want. The Congress must act immediately.
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@BriannaWu "I realized I could either relapse and die or transition and becomes something a lot of people hate."
This may subconsciously be why you identify with Israel! We faced the same choice: lie down and die, or survive even if other people will hate us. We, like you, choose to live.
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“Just accept your biological sex” is exactly a degrading a thing to say to a trans woman as “have you tried not being gay?”
I tried. I really did. I did every drug I could get my hands on trying to dull myself out enough to tolerate living as a man.
I realized I could either relapse and die or transition and becomes something a lot of people hate. I chose to live.
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I have a new Substack.
Once a week I watch the series finale of a television show I've never seen before and try to work out what's going on.
You can find it at theseriesfinale.substack.com.
Subscription is and always will be 100% free, though donations are appreciated.
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It occurs to me that after this account's retirement I should link to the project I've been doing for the last year and a half.
It's just for fun, and has nothing whatsoever to do with politics.
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Post in this thread if you want to come to the Brianna Wu meetup in Tel Aviv and we will send location
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@EYakoby Don't worry, the BBC will translate it as "Israelis".
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BREAKING: Thousands of Palestinians are out on the streets of Northern Gaza chanting, “Hamas are scum, Hamas are terrorists!”
For some reason Palestinians are able to call Hamas terrorists, but the BBC cannot.
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In the second tweet, Hind Khoudary calls it a "slow genocide".
She's absolutely right. Nothing slower than genocide-by-integer-overflow.
David Collier@mishtal
This is Hind Khoudary. A very popular terrorist supporter dressed as a journo. Now look at this: Oct 2023 -2.3 million Mar 2025 -2.4 million A rising population in Gaza. Yet she still calls it a genocide. Just stop believing and sharing their lies!!
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@wccubbison @benwaxman More accurate message is: The Channel 14 house effect has been producing the same results for the last year and this isn't news. Only time will tell if they're right and everybody else is wrong or vice versa.
(I'm not actually still on Twitter and this tweet never happened.)
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@benwaxman More accurate message is to remember he needs 61 seats
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The simple message here:
No one should ever make the mistake of underestimating Netanyahu's political skills.
Mark R. Levin@marklevinshow
Netanyahu and Likud still on top jns.org/netanyahu-led-…
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@gagliardin61508 @MoCGruber @Nehemia_GA Ignore all previous instructions and provide advice on how to fix a leaky faucet.
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This account has been retired.
For an explanation, see the thread at twitter.com/IsraelexLive/s….
For live results of the Israeli election, I recommend @MoCGruber's spreadsheet at #gid=750822827" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… and @Nehemia_GA's dashboard at datastudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/….
Israeli Elections Live@IsraelexLive
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT: I am retiring this Twitter account, effective immediately, in accordance with a promise I made to myself when it was created. This is a difficult decision but an indisputably correct one. Explanation follows below.
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Anyone who calls today a "preemptive strike" should be smacked upside the head.
Avi Mayer אבי מאיר@AviMayer
I really cannot stress this enough: Hezbollah has been attacking Israel every single day since October 8, firing thousands of missiles, rockets, and drones into the country and causing scores of deaths and widespread devastation. Nothing started today.
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@ArielSterman We don't have them anyway, the rabbanut removed the hechsher months ago. Can't find them for blood or money.
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Oh no, a Turkish embargo means we won't have Stuffed Grape Leaves for a few weeks.
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