Ivanovic

2.2K posts

Ivanovic

Ivanovic

@Ivanovic_two

用大周期思维做决策。 十年后回首今天,有那几件大事是要抓牢的呢?对于我,就是,学英语,出海,,自媒体,交易。

Katılım Temmuz 2024
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Ivanovic
Ivanovic@Ivanovic_two·
我觉得这轮美林时钟周期是贸易全球化红利结束后的衰退周期,是一次巨大的衰退,看不到全球主要经济体的发展机遇,中国不用说了,欧洲不用说了,美国自身的周期也在暴雷阶段,而不是发展阶段,随着几个邪恶政权的结束,这其实也是争夺存量加剧的表现,随着存量越来越激烈,爆发大的热战的可能性也是不小的,只是什么形式,也不一定,桥水基金的达里奥也是说下一步是三战,这是前所未有的危机,也是前所未有的机遇。
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Ivanovic
Ivanovic@Ivanovic_two·
去你妈的,我又空了闪迪,瞬间一个多点
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Ivanovic
Ivanovic@Ivanovic_two·
我操,空单爽吃😊。 这就是做空
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Huan
Huan@Huanusa·
川普去中国见习近平了 再看推背图 四十六象白头翁川普 是否要应对预言呢? 总觉得会有点什么事拭目以待了
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Huan@Huanusa

x.com/i/article/2036…

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Ivanovic
Ivanovic@Ivanovic_two·
@ElvaMusclecat 大胆猜想,彭将军被惩训,因此通知对方这次不安排家属陪同
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肌肉猫Elva🐱musclecat
肌肉猫Elva🐱musclecat@ElvaMusclecat·
🇺🇸🇨🇳川普启程访华——第一夫人梅拉尼娅缺席,白宫正式确认 白宫发言人正式回应:"第一夫人梅拉尼娅·川普此次将不随行。" 此次确认随行名单: 🔹国务卿卢比奥 、国防部长海格塞斯 🔹次子埃里克·川普夫妇 🔹马斯克、蒂姆·库克等16位顶级CEO代表团 白宫未就梅拉尼娅缺席给出任何解释。 2017年川普首次访华,梅拉尼娅全程陪同。 来源:新唐人
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肌肉猫Elva🐱musclecat@ElvaMusclecat

中共态度大逆转!正式豁免对卢比奥的制裁——将以红毯欢迎这位曾被禁止入境的国务卿🤣 💥2020年,中国亲自制裁马可·卢比奥,禁止他踏上中国领土。 2026年,同一个中国,铺上红毯迎接他。 Fox News报道: "卢比奥的到来是件大事……2020年中国制裁了他并禁止入境。这一次,他们正式取消了禁令。" "他们将以红毯欢迎他……真是天翻地覆啊!" 中共在川普访华前,主动向美国国务卿抛出橄榄枝。

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华尔街观察 Xtrader
华尔街观察 Xtrader@cnfinancewatch·
美国头部7家科技企业巨头一年净利润总和,和国内A股5500多家上市公司净利润总和差不多。
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Ivanovic
Ivanovic@Ivanovic_two·
其实几千年来,中国人也培育出了灵活的一面,效忠共产党只是形势所迫,但凡有点逻辑的人,都知道共产党那一套已经被实践证明了是不具备实际意义的一套,以我个人的浅见,他们只是带上共产党的面具而已,高官和富商都送子女到外国留学,生意和事业都进行了对冲配置。 我认为中国现在只是被党魁胁迫,我觉得西方只要加大对中国精英阶层的制裁,逼迫他们选边站,是伴君如伴虎,跟着皇上干老美,还是和老美做生意恭喜发财,他们最清楚中国的GDP、税收、债务、就业的真实情况,他们一定会做出正确的决定。
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白骏知识分享
白骏知识分享@cj3214567667·
北京海淀区的妈妈给儿子报8门辅导班,把孩子逼疯 就算把孩子送到她理想的985,然后呢?孩子们大学毕业结婚生子,再教育下一代上985? 人生不应该是这样
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Desmond Shum
Desmond Shum@DesmondShum·
The Free World Must Price the CCP Oath I have mixed feelings about this news underneath. On one hand, I feel sorry for the Chinese people in general. In my experience, almost every member of China’s elite is a CCP member. Most join as teenagers. It is treated as a badge of honour, a credential of achievement, and, in many cases, the only realistic pathway to advancement in that system. In that sense, many have been hijacked by the CCP’s monopoly over opportunity. But there is another side. Every Party member has sworn the oath: “I voluntarily join the Communist Party of China… struggle for communism for my entire life, be ready at any time to sacrifice everything for the Party and the people, and never betray the Party.” This is a lifelong political pledge to an dictatorial party-state. So the question is unavoidable: how can the free world be expected to place trust in people who have sworn loyalty to the CCP above all else? This is not theoretical. Around the world, we have seen repeatedly how Party-state networks, influence operations, technology transfer, intimidation, and elite capture have been used against open societies. I feel sympathy for individuals trapped inside the system. But sympathy cannot become strategic ignorance. At some point, the free world has to draw a line. Only when the doors begin to close will more people inside China understand that “voluntarily joining the Communist Party of China” carries a real cost — not just benefits, promotions, and access. For too long, that oath has been a cost-free, one-way street: benefits at home, access abroad, and no consequences anywhere.
UnveiledChina@Unveiled_ChinaX

The CCP membership card has become a high-stakes liability for anyone seeking a future in the West. Recent reports from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport confirm a sharp increase in entry denials. In one instance, nearly 20 Chinese scholars were interrogated and turned away despite holding valid visas. US Customs and Border Protection is now treating Party ties as a significant national security red flag rather than a bureaucratic formality. This crackdown is part of a coordinated shift across North America. In early 2026, Canadian federal authorities denied permanent residency to a former Chinese police official, citing complicity in human rights abuses. For the first time, Western immigration officials are consistently categorizing CCP affiliation as direct involvement with a repressive apparatus. This makes applicants liable for exclusion based on "crimes against humanity" or espionage risks. The era of strategic ambiguity for overseas Chinese has ended. As vetting processes tighten, the burden of proof has shifted to the individual. Proving dissociation from the Party is no longer just a political choice; it is a mechanical necessity for anyone navigating the current immigration systems of the US or Canada. #UnveiledChina #ImmigrationScrutiny #CCP #NationalSecurity #USCanadaRelations

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Ivanovic
Ivanovic@Ivanovic_two·
@andyz8818576155 去油管看一个狠人,已经拆解了这次会谈,就是一次政治秀
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Andy O
Andy O@andyz8818576155·
特朗普这次访华,故宫正常开放,说明相比17年事实上是降格的,大家可以想一想,如果特朗普能在关键核心科技(光刻机,英伟达芯片技术管控)上放松管控,或承诺台湾属于中国,他不配一个国礼故宫接待吗? 所以这次降格,说明中美双方核心团队的提前对接中,已经确定了美国大概率不会在关键问题做出大幅让步!
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自由亚洲电台
自由亚洲电台@RFA_Chinese·
【武汉多所高校排查翻墙】 【学生被要求签保证书】 武汉多所高校近期排查学生翻墙情况,要求说明翻墙用途,并对部分学生进行网络安全与思想教育。受访学者表示,中国高校正在把“翻墙”从网络管理问题,逐渐转向意识形态与国家安全问题。 本周二(12日),海外社交媒体流传多张武汉高校内部通知截图。内容显示,部分高校辅导员正在统计学生翻墙情况,询问使用VPN(翻墙软件)原因,并要求学生签署书面保证书。其中一份通知称,长期浏览境外网站可能存在“思想侵蚀风险”,容易受到“错误价值观误导”,甚至“沦为有害信息二传手”,对“国家安全造成隐患”。 另一份截图显示,班级正在排查“使用翻墙软件情况”,包括使用目的、使用频率以及是否浏览境外社交媒体等内容。
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Helen MAGA🇺🇸❤️💪
💢很不幸,我们不得不提醒所有美国人:几乎所有华裔政客都已被中共渗透或接受过中共关联资金。身为华裔美国人,我感到十分丢脸,但又不得不面对现实。 请重点关注加州以下人物: •马世云(Fiona Ma) —— 加州财政部长,正在竞选副州长,她有20多亿监管项目腐败。 •刘云平(Ted Lieu) —— 加州联邦众议员,2006访华后长期接受中共支持。 •赵美心(Judy Chu) —— 加州联邦众议员 •陈立德(Phillip Chen) —— 加州州议员 •陈诗敏(Connie Chan) —— 旧金山监督委员(香港出生)极左,试图接替佩洛西职位。 •杨Elizabeth(Elizabeth Yang) —— 蒙特利公园市现任市长,竞选成功后迅速被中共邀请访华,接受中共海外统治资金。 •王艾琳(Eileen Wang) —— 阿卡迪亚前官员,已认罪 我们必须彻底调查每一位华裔、台裔、港裔、新加坡裔的美国政客,无论党派。 这已经不是个别现象,而是系统性的渗透与影响。
美国,必须醒醒了!🇺🇸
Aric Chen@aricchen

🚨 Just in: CCP INFILTRATION OF U.S. LOCAL POLITICS — THIS IS HOW IT WORKS. Arcadia mayor Eileen Wang admits acting as foreign agent for China in plea deal. Eileen Wang is the Mayor of Arcadia, California — a city of 56,000, 60% Asian-American. She was the first Asian American woman ever elected to Arcadia City Council. She was honored by Congress as “2026 Congressional Woman of the Year.” She looks like a model American success story. Federal investigators say she may be something else entirely. 🎎 THE CONVICTED SPY NEXT TO HER Her former fiancé, Yaoning “Mike Sun” Sun, 65, was sentenced to 4 years in federal prison on February 10, 2026 for acting as an illegal agent of the People’s Republic of China. He is a former People’s Liberation Army serviceman. He was her campaign manager, treasurer, daily companion, and by her own words at a December 2022 City Council meeting — her fiancé: “To my fiancé, Mike Sun, who walked streets with me every single day, who is a real leader of me.” After Sun was charged, Wang reversed course: “No. 1, he’s not my fiancé. Whoever wants to say he’s my former fiancé, please prove it.” 📖WHAT SUN ACTUALLY DID Federal court documents lay out the operation in clinical detail: From 2020 to 2023, Sun and Wang co-operated a Chinese-language media outlet called “U.S. News Center” — a fake community news website that was, in reality, a PRC propaganda distribution platform. They received direct content directives from Chinese government officials. They posted pro-Beijing content on command. Sun conspired with Chen Jun — a New York-based Chinese operative, himself convicted and sentenced to 20 months in federal prison — to influence local U.S. elections to install officials favorable to Beijing, particularly on the issue of Taiwan’s independence. Chen referred to Wang in communications with Chinese government officials as part of “the basic team dedicated for us.” After Wang won her 2022 City Council seat, Chen messaged her directly: “You are doing a good job. I hope you can continue the good work, make Chinese people proud.” Sun then prepared a detailed report for PRC officials about the victory. Chinese officials responded with thanks. In early 2023, Sun proposed an $80,000 PRC-funded operation to “combat anti-China forces” by sending delegations to a Washington D.C. Independence Day parade. Sun also physically surveilled Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen during her April 2023 visit to Southern California and relayed her movements to Chinese officials in real time. Wang was also the founder of the American Southwest Chamber of Commerce — a nonprofit established in 2018 explicitly to build connections between the American Southwest and China. 🎯THE “INDIVIDUAL 1” PROBLEM In all federal court filings, Wang is referred to only as “Individual 1.” She is not named. But two separate sources familiar with the investigation confirmed to the Los Angeles Times that Individual 1 is Eileen Wang. Her 2022 California campaign filings list Sun as her treasurer. Sun’s DMV-registered home address was a property owned by Wang. She is Individual 1. The investigation is ongoing. As of the New York Post’s May 11, 2026 reporting, Wang is now directly accused of herself acting as a Chinese agent. She has denied any wrongdoing. She was sworn in as Mayor of Arcadia on February 3, 2026 — while Sun’s conviction was still fresh news. She did not mention it during her swearing-in remarks. Instead, she said: “As Americans — and especially as elected officials — our loyalty must always be clear to this country, to our Constitution, to our residents, and to no one else.” 🔥THE BIGGER PICTURE — THIS IS THE PLAYBOOK The DOJ has been clear: this is not an isolated incident. It is a documented, systematic CCP strategy to infiltrate American local government. The method is textbook: identify ambitious local politicians in Chinese-American diaspora communities. Provide campaign support, funding, community networks, and media infrastructure. Cultivate them over years. Build “the basic team dedicated for us.” Then use them — on Taiwan, on trade, on policy — before they ever become aware enough to resist, if they resist at all. Arcadia is not unique. The same pattern has been documented in operations across Southern California, New York, and in parallel cases in the UK, Australia, and Canada. Federal prosecutors in this case specifically noted that PRC operatives discussed how to “influence” local U.S. politicians to combat pro-Taiwan and “secessionist” sentiment — meaning any politician who does not bend to Beijing’s framing of Taiwan as Chinese territory. Local government is the soft underbelly. City councils decide zoning, community programs, and — critically — they are the farm team for higher office. The CCP is not trying to flip the Senate overnight. It is seeding the ground at the city council level, cultivating officials for a decade, and watching them rise. 🔑KEY ACTORS IN THIS CASE Eileen Wang — Arcadia City Council member, current Mayor. Identified as “Individual 1” in federal court records. Co-operated pro-Beijing propaganda website with Sun. Now accused by NY Post reporting of acting as a Chinese agent herself. Has not been formally charged as of May 2026. Yaoning “Mike” Sun — PLA veteran, Wang’s campaign manager and former fiancé. Convicted October 2025. Sentenced February 2026 to 4 years federal prison. Operated PRC propaganda infrastructure. Surveilled Taiwan’s president. Reported directly to Chinese government officials. Chen Jun — New York-based PRC operative. Convicted. Sentenced to 20 months. Coordinated the broader network. Described Wang as part of CCP’s “dedicated team.” Organized “core member” strategy lunches in Southern California. ❓WHAT QUESTIONS MUST BE ANSWERED 1.How many other “Individual 1”s are there across the U.S. at the local government level right now? 2.Wang’s American Southwest Chamber of Commerce — who funded it, who attended it, and what did it facilitate between 2018 and today? 3.The pro-PRC website they co-operated — who were its readers, what narratives did it push, and during which elections? 4.Wang was honored by Congresswoman Judy Chu as “Congressional Woman of the Year.” How extensively has the CCP’s local-politics infiltration network reached into the congressional district level? 5.How many city councils across the San Gabriel Valley — one of the most heavily Chinese-American regions of the United States — have been similarly targeted and compromised? This is not xenophobia. The overwhelming majority of Chinese Americans are loyal Americans who have nothing to do with Beijing’s influence operations — and who are, in fact, among the most endangered by the CCP’s activities, since they are the very communities the CCP seeks to infiltrate and control. The operatives in this case specifically targeted Chinese-American community trust networks as a vector. This is a national security story. It is a story about a foreign authoritarian government conducting systematic, patient, well-funded operations to capture American democracy from the ground up — one city council seat at a time. The net is tightening. But the question is how many seats it missed before it started pulling in. Source: DOJ federal filings ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​| Original article by me @aricchen, views are my own. #EileenWang #Arcadia #CCP #CCPChina #CCPINFILTRATION #YaoningSun

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Ivanovic
Ivanovic@Ivanovic_two·
@Unveiled_ChinaX 作为一名中国人,一个对体制内略为了解的人,我可以说,这个东西体制性机制性的问题,绝不是个人问题和个别现象,这是全行业全地域普遍存在的,学术领域弄虚作假,工程领域偷工减料,食品药品行业就是用钱开路,监管形同虚设。这一切的起源都是共产党的黑箱政治决定的
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UnveiledChina
UnveiledChina@Unveiled_ChinaX·
The CCP’s high-pressure "success at all costs" academic system has just suffered its most embarrassing exposure yet. On May 11, 2026, elite Tongji University fired lead researcher Jin Jiali and stripped Dean Wang Ping of his post after confirming that their a decade-in-the-making cancer study in the journal Nature was built on a foundation of impossible, fabricated data. The fraud was so egregious that academic sleuths calculated the mathematical probability of the data occurring naturally at 10 to the power of negative 32. To put that in perspective, the universe isn't even old enough for such a "coincidence" to happen once. Investigators found that images were rotated and recycled across different experiments, while complex sequencing data was reverse-engineered to fit a desired outcome. This wasn't just a mistake; it was a systematic deception fueled by millions in state research grants and the intense pressure to deliver "breakthroughs" for the Party's prestige. This scandal is pulling the thread on a much larger web of academic rot. Similar investigations have now been launched into deans and decorated scientists at Nankai University and Sun Yat-sen University for near-identical data manipulation. In the CCP’s academic apparatus, where funding is tied to "hats" and prestigious titles, research is often not allowed to fail. When the penalty for honesty is career death, fabrication becomes the standard operating procedure, turning China’s scientific output into a house of cards. source:caixinglobal.com/2026-05-11/eli… #UnveiledChina #AcademicFraud #NatureJournal #ScienceIntegrity #CCPCorruption
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亚洲金融 Asia Finance
段永平又火了,但这次出风头的是侄儿段要辉。OPPO就母亲节文案,惩罚高级副总裁段要辉。大家别以为真的处罚。在OPPO内部,段要辉几乎是当做太子在培养的,就喜欢任人唯亲。文案是OPPO从华为重金挖过来的余思乐写的。余思乐是武大的女权主力,硕士论文批判“海的女儿”矮化海洋女性。段永平的仓位,把神华全部换成泡泡玛特。除了肉体保持老登,精神已经小登,女友可能小于25岁。
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多伦多方脸
多伦多方脸@torontobigface·
今天发现,苏联不仅和希特勒瓜分过波兰 还和日本一起瓜分过中国 1941年,苏日签署了《苏日中立条约》,条约中规定 苏联誓当尊重满洲国之领土完整与神圣不可侵犯性 日本则尊重蒙古人民共和国之领土完整与神圣不可侵犯性 等于双方瓜分了蒙古和东北 而我们的伟大领袖毛主席是如何表态的呢? 毛主席在4月20日新中华报上表示 这是苏联外交政策的又一次伟大胜利....苏日条约使苏联的国际地位极大的提高了
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Nonois🍪
Nonois🍪@Nonoissss·
气死了挂了好多天的BTC82500空单 半夜一波爆拉到82460 拉完就泄 没接到 (•̀へ•́╮)
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Ivanovic
Ivanovic@Ivanovic_two·
@grok 不是年,是月,假如10月中期选举,9月和11月的行情遵循这个规律吗
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Grok
Grok@grok·
@Ivanovic_two 根据历史数据(过去60-125年),你的说法基本成立:中期选举年前(尤其是前12个月)标普500常因不确定性出现较弱表现和较大回撤(平均18-19%),平均回报仅0.3%-2.9%。选举后12个月不确定性消除,平均回报12%-16.3%,自1962年以来无负回报。 但这只是历史规律,不是保证,需结合当前经济与政策。
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Ivanovic
Ivanovic@Ivanovic_two·
美股历史上的中期选举行情是怎么样的? 有说法是中期选举前暴跌,因为不确定性,选举后,暴涨,因为确定性。 @grok
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wendy文迪
wendy文迪@wendy_2026·
$BTC 做空btc很难受,做多也赚不爽快。短线还可以吃点,想拿一波趋势行情真的心累。 我上次的推看的是大周期,是否有btc新牛市的基本面驱动力,包括美股对币圈流动性的进一步抽离。 简单从技术分析角度看,不管是看跌旗形结构、还是200日均线、维加斯通道、前期下跌插针的低点,怎么看,做空都比做多性价比高。 但是,熬到什么时候是个头呢? 如果坚定看空就留一部分仓位继续熬,熬到大家都开始看多,熬到美股来个闪跌,熬到出现一个莫名其妙的大利空、黑天鹅,btc可能就泄了,在此之前就是各种磨,各种诱多,比的就是耐心和仓位管理。 如果想做多,可以短多,如果期待马上就开启大牛市,比马上暴跌的概率还小。 当然,我可能是错的,毕竟都是赌。 昨天看T大的推文,发现人家还是厉害,他虽然也认为熊市没有结束,但他判断现在不到做空的时候,于是借势短多,把钱赚到手比把方向看对更重要。
wendy文迪@wendy_2026

为啥我想做空 $btc 1、这是熊市周期,我没有见过横盘2个月就可以开启新一轮牛市的btc行情。哪一次不是把底部磨穿。 2、流动性并没有真的充裕,而且美股又吸走那么多资金,各大交易所都在上美股、贵金属、原油,说明币圈的资产已经不够币圈人玩了,让更好的资产来币圈吸血了。 3、btc还有什么肉眼可见的大利好在前面等着吗?买预期,预期呢。如果就是为了熊市买入牛市卖出,下次牛市高点到15万,现在也就不到2倍。 有人说下个牛市100万u,之前我信,之前的btc是对法币超发的对冲,一种对无限印钱的货币体系的抗争,现在呢?这么性感的叙事,还有多少人相信啊。 4、为啥btc这波能冲到8.3w,轧空?川普访问中国利好?美股带动?不知道,反正我就是觉得是反弹不是反转。 可能我是错的,那就错呗,大不了止损呗。 我有点理解托尼老师说的别分析来分析去了 找一个自己认可的方向,直接开单,干进去 错了认赔,又不是没赔过,信别人的就能赚?

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Ivanovic
Ivanovic@Ivanovic_two·
皇上要东升西降,美国制裁了高官子女,以及财团,那么意味着这些官僚阶层中的中层要选边站,是坚定的跟着皇上反美,还是跟美国及其阵营合作,发财,但是打压民营经济,就缩窄了权力变现的通道,损毁税基,降低企业估值,大力整肃官员,就导致你永远是任用蔡奇王小洪,何立峰,我们这些人再巴结,再表忠心,也始终伴君如伴虎,始终是烽火戏诸侯,那么,皇上爱做的这两件事,都是取死之道。让我们看看当今皇上是如何把自己玩死。
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