JANSEY_TRADES

Over the past few years I’ve been studying historical market leadership, market structure, and speculative cycles across more than two centuries of market history. Going forward, I’ll be publishing this work under the name: Curbstone Research ---------------------------------- “Why We Are Closer to 1994 Than 1999” Most investors are treating today’s AI boom like the final speculative mania phase of the internet bubble. I think we are much earlier. The 1990s internet boom ended with a flurry of gimmicky internet IPOs, not with data centers. It began with: -fiber optic buildout -semiconductors -telecoms infrastructure -server expansion -communications investment -enterprise computing adoption Thousands of internet startups and IPOs came later. Today’s AI market still resembles the infrastructure phase: -compute -semiconductors -datacenters -networking -energy But we still have relatively few scaled public AI application companies. The application-layer explosion may still be ahead. open.substack.com/pub/barrybivin…

I did a deep dive into @DanZanger. Not the kind with lots of zeroes and the implication that Dan has a “magic formula” you can copy. But the kind that looks beyond the surface layer. That doesn’t accept answers at face value. That wants to figure out what causes apparent contradictions. That doesn’t just want to know *what* Dan does, but *why*. The kind that gets to the ESSENCE of the strategy: What makes it work? What are the foundational ideas that underpin it? As I put the pieces together, it became increasingly clear to me that you can trace the most striking elements of Dan’s style to his hard-earned lessons and personality. Because his strategy — just like anyone else’s — isn’t perfect. …which makes the interesting question: how did he make it so potent anyway? *** This article is NOT for you if you’re looking for quick answers and shortcuts. But if you’re looking for depth, I may have just made your day: *** The Nuances Behind Dan Zanger How the story shapes the strategy 🔗 tinyurl.com/4t9xf4h9

Working with @theEquilibrium truly is a pleasure. Immersing yourself in Matt’s content has that ‘equilibrium’ effect on you, helping you stay grounded and focused. Trading is all about stacking edges, and one of the most important edges is a favourable environment for your strategy — the big focus of his new article. My favourite part is where different tactics get discussed: offence vs defence. As a risk-averse person, my biggest trading challenge was learning to get comfortable with aggression. That challenge was made harder by simply not being clear on the purpose of different sell rules — what sort of tactics are appropriate in which environment? Now, it seems so obvious that I feel rather stupid for not realising sooner, but that really hadn’t clicked for me a couple of years ago. As to my struggle to get aggressive, in the end, it was my now-former employer who taught me that mindset change. They put me in a situation where it didn’t make sense to NOT take the risk, twice, with the first leading to personal explosive growth (via TTRH) and the second leading to my resignation and self-employment. When the risk–reward makes sense, aggressive action becomes 10x easier — because it becomes the obviously right decision. Learning to get comfortable with (controlled) risk-taking has hugely improved both my content and my trading returns — but only when the right conditions come along. And until they do, you focus on playing defence so that, when the time is right, you’re in a position of strength to take those bigger risks. This new article explains, in Matt’s words, why environment is so important, how to assess the environment (follow-through), and how to adapt to different environments. Thank you again, Matt! Working with you truly is a pleasure :)

In small burst, once a week, listening to @TimJDillon cynical sarcasm gives me life 😂