JC

@timanderson87 You posted this right as they came within one point lol, let's see what happens

My final four for the tournament was Duke, Michigan, Arizona, and Florida, with the Blue Devils winning it all

@robpizzola Thanks Rob, I thought it meant I'd have a model that spits out a probability of something happening, and then compare that probability to the odds being offered. If my model says something should have a way higher chance of happening than the +150 being offered, i'd bet it.

That's not how it works. Books put out numbers at smaller limits, there are absolutely edges to be had. There's a process called price discovery. They let bettors bet into numbers at small limits until they feel confident that they have a decent price and they raise limits, and that process is repeated up until game time.

As we approach the Super Bowl, you are going to see a lot of Super Bowl prop trends posted, which is basically the laziest form of analysis and/or engagement farming. “Shortest TD under has hit 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls” tells you basically nothing without price and context. Different teams, different play styles, different totals, different red zone tendencies, differences in the way the game is officiated. It’s not one repeating experiment. 8/10 on something across 10 different games with 20 different teams doesn’t mean it’s due or predictive. From 2009–2014 we had 4 safeties in 6 Super Bowls. That didn’t mean safeties were suddenly a 67% event going forward. Trends aren’t edges. The question is always the same... is the price good? The only thing that matters is the price.

@robpizzola The books probably have way more sophisticated models than I could come up with, but it would be fun to try

@JEC816 Sometimes shopping from book to book on the same prop can be good enough to overcome the vig. Ie: entire market offering +120 on something and one book offering +160 But generally, yes, you need some way of estimating what the true probability of the event is.

@ThePME He's eating the drumstick how he should have eaten the corndog

Cust Eats: DEATH HOT WINGS

@LegacySiu Kroos

Guess the Goalscorer Level: Impossible

@MattWalshBlog My beard is completely grey on the chin but no where else, looks really weird so I shave it off

It’s frankly just absurd that some men choose not to have beards

@kylesykes23 @AdamSchefter Chuba easily

@AdamSchefter I have Jacobs and Gibbs as my RB’s and my WR’s are Nico and Ladd, do I start Chuba, Isaac or Marvin Harrison at my flex spot?

With the fantasy football playoffs starting tonight: 49ers rookie RB Isaac Guerendo plans to play Thursday night vs. the Rams despite his sprained foot that has left him being listed as questionable, per sources. Guerendo insists he “feels good.”

@DrJesseMorse Would you play Abdullah over guys like justice hill?

Ameer Abdullah is the RB I would expect to lead the #RaiderNation backfield in Week 12, with both Zamir White and Alexander Mattison banged up. Laube is more of a flex play IMO.

@CamStewartLive I have your back Cam! If people can't take a joke that's their problem buddy.

So you've all come back at the same time to attack again. Block block block block block block. I am done with this nonsense. Blocked !

@MightyFurtado @bl68471602 @MrStache9 Salary should be reflective of the number of people capable of doing the job. A warehouse worker should not be making the same as an engineer. If it was private then fine, pay people what you want, but this is taxpayer money.

@bl68471602 @MrStache9 Am I the only one that sees no issue in these earnings?! How much overtime have they given out? How long have those employees worked for LCBO. Seems to be a lot of salt in the sea. Sucks to suck but good for them on making that bag. You want 6 figures go work for the government.

A 750 of Vodka for $18.98!!! In Ont it's over 30 bucks! Someone posted that an LCBO full time cashier makes $39 an hour. PRIVATIZE!

@thegoldenmuzzy @NHL_AaronWard Is it about Woll?

@NHL_AaronWard I got a bad phone call about 30 mins ago, I can tell you that

So, how we feeling?

@ThePME Damn and I thought I was a fan lol

I think you may need to scale that back for next year.

@ThePME @ToeTagginTambo LETS GO TAMBO!

My guy @ToeTagginTambo is giving away (up to) $30,000 depending on his results at the DK King of the Beach next week. It'll be split up into 6 winners. Here's how you can get in the draw. Sharing this around doesn't hurt your chances btw 🔽🔽🔽

@ThePME Terminator 2 and Silence of the Lambs, too hard to choose

Fav movie from the bunch?

@DBro_FFB Love or Russell Wilson this week? It's an ugly choice for me with Fields out

I'm discussing this in-depth in the Primer... BUT if you think this is a smash matchup for Jordan Love against MIN...you aren't looking deep enough.

@MasonDoddFFN Kelley just missed his chance for a TD

Did I really fall for Dillon / Kelley for two weeks in a row? Please do something so I don't have to delete my account

@robpizzola Is Geoff ok though? Poor guy

Gonna be an absolute BANGER tonight.

@DrJesseMorse @TheFantasyDRS Apparently Ekeler has an ankle injury and may not practice this week

Updated #NFL Injury Report Heading into MNF @TheFantasyDRS The premium version is available on our website & the betting version please see the link in my bio.

@DrJesseMorse Because he's on my fantasy team

Why does DJ Moore only have 2 targets?