JF Invests | xPunk #10773

Get rich slowly = Low risk w/ high probability. Get rich quick = High risk w/ low probability. Choose one depending on your situation. If you don't want to pick one, you can do a mix of both. How? Continue reading 👇 #investing #investments #investingtips #investor

I recently shared my stock analysis for Ulta Beauty $ULTA to fellow investors where I covered the following: • Business • Tailwinds • Risks • Forecast • Valuation • Buy prices I'll be summarizing it in this thread 🧵

My stock analysis write-up for Ulta Beauty $ULTA is now published! ✍️ $SPY $QQQ A dive on its business, tailwinds, risks, valuation and buy prices. Read it here 👇 thoughtful-investing.beehiiv.com/p/ulta-beauty-…

Ulta Beauty $ULTA stock price experienced a significant drop recently. It's currently trading at a discount to its 5-year average P/E. I'll be sharing my detailed analysis on the company in my newsletter. Subscribe to receive it in your inbox. Newsletter link shared below 👇

I recently shared my stock analysis for Paypal $PYPL to fellow investors where I covered the following: • Business • Tailwinds • Risks • Valuation • Buy prices I'll be summarizing it in this thread 🧵

My recently shared stock analysis write-ups to fellow investors 👇 • Crocs $CROX • Microsoft $MSFT • Nvidia $NVDA • Alphabet $GOOG $GOOGL (Links shared below)

@FI_investor $ZM for losing money long-term 😂

Choose your fighter 👇 • $ZM (Zoom) • $COIN (Coinbase) • $TDOC (Teladoc) • $BKNG (Booking Holdings) #StockMarket #stocks

@FI_investor Yes 🙌

@sadvalueinvestr Well, never short a Ponzi until after it’s blown up and the cracks are showing for even the devotes to see. And even then, keep risk small. There’s plenty of time to ride it down. $FTCH was down 75% YTD, and still fell 35% more today. Tragicomic how widely pumped this stock was.

Not taking a victory lap. I wrote a short thesis on $FTCH in Dec 2019 at $12. Stock round tripped $70 to get to $5.70. wow.

How to analyze a balance sheet: (without a background in finance or accounting)

@ecommerceshares Would you buy $ULTA in its current price? Looks expensive 🤔 20x P/E, 14x TEV/EBITDA, 21x MC/FCF with only ~8% EPS growth next 5 years. Great performance of the management though. Beat rev & eps expectations for the last 4 quarters!

Main reason for the outperformance of $ULTA and co is pretty basic: earnings & earnings outlook. $ULTA consensus earnings revisions have only gone one way - to the proverbial moon. $AMZN meanwhile looks like the proverbial… 💩-pile. Earnings matter, who knew! So… quaint. 😏

Year to date performance for US Retailers (as of Dec 7). $AMZN in the middle of the stack, down by half. FinTwit favourite $FTCH at the absolute bottom at -86%, well-deserved for the most pumped piece-of-sh*t-co of all retail. Who told you? 😏

How to import data into Excel by snapping a picture. 📸 #excel

The luxury industry has been very resilient historically, and is expected to grow at a ~6.5% CAGR until 2030: [chart from $FTCH's recent Capital Markets Day deck] $LVMH $RMS $KER $MONC $BRBY $RACE $BC.MI $CFR.SW

@NorthmanTrader @MacroAlf Earnings grew 5.35% at 2019? multpl.com/s-p-500-earnin…

In an average recessions earnings fall by ~20%. Analysts are pricing in earnings to grow by ~5% next year. Yet I hear a recession is “priced in”?

@truflation US CPI forecast for next week is 7.6%. Based on truflation, it looks like there's a good probability that US CPI will be below 7%?

Truflation US today, Dec 7, 2022 🇺🇸6.16% YoY Our independent inflation index dropped by 1% in 1 month. Our data is available daily at app.truflation.com

@MirkoZhulj @MacroAlf @MacroAlf Same question. I guess the deposits from the Commercial Bank was used to purchase Govt bonds?

@MacroAlf Where is 100$ banks used to buy the Government bonds?

Government deficit spending creates money for people. Here is how: (Short thread)

@SwingWeekend @RecessionAlert2 Analysts are looking for 5% EPS growth in '23, $SPX is priced based on that number (not on recessionary earnings).