James Foster

🇦🇺 Q4 GDP: Growth revived in 2025 #ausbiz jamesfostermacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/in-rev…

Bond yields lifted, a headwind for equities, US: S&P500 -1.24%, Nasdaq -1.54%. Europe/UK: Stoxx -1.81%, Nasdaq -1.71%. $AUDUSD fell to 0.7150. US 2yr yld +5bps to 4.07%, 10yr +11bps to 4.59%.

Podcast: A run through the Budget changes & what it might all mean @OwenRask @RaskAustralia #ausbiz raskmedia.com.au/2026/05/14/bud…

$AUDUSD a bit softer o/n but still close to its ytd highs (MarketWatch)

Broad-based gains for equities, US: S&P500 +0.77%, Nasdaq +0.88%. Europe/UK: Stoxx +1.26%, FTSE +0.46%. SPI futures +0.57%. $AUDUSD 0.7220. US 2yr yld +4bps to 4.02%, 10yr +1bp to 4.48%.

Solid US retail sales in April. Control group rises 0.5%m/m (vs 0.4% exp), with the annual pace lifting from 5.1% to 5.7%.

Look at those upstream price pressures heading the way of the US consumer. Notable Fed funds futures have now effectively priced out cuts throughout this year AND next. Volumes may be pitiful that far out, but good luck to Warsh in trying to push for easier policy.

Equities advanced, US: S&P500 +0.58%, Nasdaq +1.2%. Europe/UK: Stoxx +0.91%, FTSE +0.58%. SPI futures -0.25%. $AUDUSD 0.7260. US 2yr yld -1bp to 3.98%, 10yr +1bp to 4.47%.

US PPI Final Demand (M/M) Apr: 1.4% (est 0.5%; prev 0.5%; prev R 0.7%) - PPI Final Demand (Y/Y): 6.0% (est 4.8%; prev 4.0%; prev R 4.3%) - PPI Ex Food And Energy (M/M): 1.0% (est 0.3%; prev 0.1%; prev R 0.2%) - PPI Ex Food And Energy (Y/Y): 5.2% (est 4.3%; prev 3.8%; prev R 4.0%) - PPI Ex Food, Energy And Trade (M/M): 5.2% (est 0.3%; prev 0.1%) - PPI Ex Food, Energy And Trade (Y/Y): 4.4% (est 4.1%; prev 3.6%)

In review: Australian Federal Budget 2026/27 jamesfostermacro.blogspot.com/2026/05/in-rev…

Investor lending was just below peak levels in the March quarter, a fair bit for that segment to take in following the budget

🇦🇺 Housing finance slowed in the March quarter. Commitments ($ val.) fell by 3.8%, with loan volumes down 6.2%. #ausbiz

🇦🇺 Wages growth was 0.8% in the March quarter, same as in the December quarter. Annual growth slows from 3.4% to 3.3%. - Private sector 0.8%qq, 3.2%yy (from 3.4%) - Public sector 0.5%qq, 3.3%yy (from 4%) #ausbiz

USD a bit firmer o/n as CPI came in above expectations (MarketWatch)

Equities declined, US: S&P500 -0.16%, Nasdaq -0.71%. Europe/UK: Stoxx -1.48%, FTSE -0.04%. SPI futures -0.12%. $AUDUSD 0.7240. US 2yr yld +4bps to 3.99%, 10yr +5bps to 4.46%.

Economic forecasts behind the budget. A modest slowdown from 2.25% to 1.75% seen over the coming year. Inflation to peak at 5%.

🇦🇺 Key budget metrics. Forecast deficits narrow to $150.5bn from $195.4bn previously, largely driven by more favorable economic parameters (higher exp tax revenue).

The "Liz Truss moment" of 2022 has turned into the UK's political reality, with 30-year yields soaring to their highest levels since 1998 and the pound weakening. "No matter who is in power, no matter their political leaning, there does not appear to be a credible plan to restore the country’s finances." bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

NAB April business survey not looking so good Conditions fell only a bit to +3, but new orders fell to -5 & emp to just +1. Confidence also remained very weak at -24. Price pressures rose further (like PMI survey). All up continuing to warn of a mild bout of stagflation.

Budget night live with @PeteWargent #Budget2026 petewargent.blogspot.com/2026/05/budget…

Australia NAB Business Confidence Apr: -24 (prev –29) - NAB Business Conditions: 3 (prev 6)