Jacob Hornstein

I love that @JDVance and @elonmusk are concerned about falling birthrates. But they're wrong to only focus on cultural and economic causes. Genetics play a more important role, and policymakers have to take that into account. My latest in @thehill:

@novusolus He values salesmanship and may believe exclusivity draws attention and speculation to his message

It's strange Thiel delivered his lectures in strict privacy because they sound interesting and it's rare for billionaires to speak on anything so off the beaten track of ordinary discourse, even if his Libertarian interpretation of the Antichrist is somewhat unimaginative.

@haravayin_hogh How so? What are the plausible alternatives to Georgian Stalin?

His bizzare book "Young Stalin" which took a very credulous attitude towards both notoriously unreliable Tsarist & Soviet sources, raised far more questions than answers. In particular Stalin's known upbringing & family are utterly at odds for someone of his ethnic background.

@coholismal Recently met a guy who runs a charity that gives psychedelics to veterans and Alzheimer’s patients

could honestly extended to fully legalizing all drug use for this population too

how long does it take unhealthy habits to kill someone? what if we subsidized smoking/drinking/excess sodium etc for boomers, perhaps by cutting sin taxes above a certain age, as a trade for their healthcare tail costs?

@watchingspirals I was right, but I lost. A quarter million of our supporters died, hundreds of thousands of our supporters self-purged from institutions, opportunity to challenge DEI in medicine was blown, Kennedy institutionalized anti-vaxx, & we lost 3% of our educated supporters to Democrats.

Everything that people say about Zelensky applies 1,000x to Chiang. Westerners were obsessed with him, were sure he would defeat communism, taking back all of China. He just needed a little bit more money...

Thiel: "There is a lack of understanding of just how meticulous and unique Japanese thinking is...Japan is one of the places that has been least affected by the negative aspects of globalization."

Thiel: "I told [Vance] that it would be more important for the United States to focus more on domestic issues so that the U.S. economy would be in a solid state when Vance runs for president in three years."

The technology driven homogenization of the local means that culture, ethnicity, language, and all other nurture based modifiers are increasingly irrelevant and that genes, blood, and all other nature based characteristics are more important than ever.

People want to find a ‘silver bullet’ on wokeness - like it’s a series of ideas or policy choices. It is civil rights law, or refusal to recognize genetic differences or women in the workplace. Maybe it’s just what happens when a society is falling apart because it has no core. Like it’s a predictable outcome when you lose cohesion - and the ideas come later. Austria-Hungary had all kinds of ‘woke conflict’ around 1910 as its multiracial empire shifted toward having a parliament. Every ethnic group became a block. And it all fell to pieces at the major test in WW1. Lee Kuan Yew summed it all up when he said in a multicultural society people vote on ethnic solidarity. That’s basically what we are seeing in a more complicated way in the USA. You can close the border and enforce solidarity like from 1924-1965 - or we can fragment to pieces.

In a kleptocracy public funds are stolen and those who benefit are politically powerful enough to capture the government itself. As true in the modern U.S. as of post-Communist Eastern Europe states of the 1990s. Since the U.S. is so much richer, the theft is far greater too.

David, I’m a big fan of your work. But — their ballistic missiles may have underperformed (not clear), but their drones have outperformed. Look at the strikes on radars and bases: the Iranians seem to have done more damage than we thought they could. — India is almost certainly not going to use force to re-open the strait. They have a strong relationship with the Iranians predicated on their shared desire to check Pakistani power. Sending ships is probably best read (don’t know Indian politics well) as a way for Modi to seem tough to voters as prices rise. — Key parts of the Iraqi government are still cooperating with the Iranians. Azerbaijan de-escalated earlier tensions. Turkey doesn’t want another unstable neighbor. — China may not appreciate Iran’s oil disruptions, but it still gains something from the U.S. being tied up in the Middle East, and would lose something from a weakened Iran that couldn’t entangle the U.S. It’s possible the Iranian regime falls. But it’s worth keeping in mind that even the Israelis and Americans reportedly don’t think that’s on the table right now. I’d give majority odds the regime is still in place by EOY.

Nobody is really making the same prediction I am, that I can see. I am just looking at the big picture facts: * Iran lost militarily. * Iran's ballistic missile program did far less damage than even mega bulls thought before this military operationg began. * India is saying plainly that they will send in 7 warships to end Iran's blockade. Which makes sense, since Iran losing a war doesn't magically let them turn international waters into a toll road - that is truly incoherent. * All of Iran's neighbors turned against Iran * Iran is also angering China by blockading them. Unclear if China will actually join the fight, but I don't see why they would want to help Iran.

BREAKING: An Iranian missile has struck Saudi Arabia. This comes just two days after Saudi Arabia warned Iran that any further attacks on its soil would elicit a military response.

Headline: Iran going to escalate in response to Israeli attacks Subtext: The things mentioned as escalations are all doable post war. Iran has not yet struck key economic infastructure in the Gulf or in Israel in response to Israel's strike on its steel sector. When Israel struck South Pars, it took 6-8 hours for Iran to respond by hitting Ras Laffan. The longer the delay here, the more likely it is that the delay reflects some kind of ongoing negotiations the Iranians don't want to disrupt

@theojaffee @JimMcMurtry01 And I think a system in which only American Indians can build things is worse than one where no one can! At least the latter has the escape valve of necessity — the former will enrich a narrow tribal elite at everyone else’s expense.

@Jacob_Hornstein @JimMcMurtry01 I agree completely!

The wealthy 1500-member Musqueam tribe, which claims all of Vancouver, is building 11 towers (some 56 stories) on an 11.7-acre waterfront site. This density breaks all the rules, but when you’re a court-supported racial oligarchy, you can do anything.

@theojaffee @JimMcMurtry01 I think white people should be allowed to build things too

@ayatr0llah @formerlyed Is it true that Mojtaba is the front-runner right now? Media keeps saying so but seems like there are fewer AOE members saying so

@formerlyed He is but lots of intense factionalism. A few videos released of assembly of experts members (the body that chooses SL) effectively endorsing him by elevating him to the rank of Ayatollah which he’s not

It’s almost guaranteed that if the IR survives and picks Mojtaba, they will say it isn’t hereditary succession because Bush Senior and Bush Junior were both presidents too

@orrdavid @olliejmorgan @SowingAlphaSeed Polymarket doesn't charge fees for almost all markets.

@olliejmorgan @SowingAlphaSeed The house take is way too high.

Interesting concept! ETFs the e.g. put all their money on a bet that the next president will be a Republican. Then after the election they just split/reverse split to rebase things and make the same bet on the next election.

An easy test of this theory is Anglo Africa, where not only is housing cheap but full-time staff rounds to free even for the middle classes...and still fertility looks the same as elsewhere.

@WillManidis Karl Popperism

one of the strange consequences of markets eating the world is that "trader brain" is now terminal across society. your convictions are now a thing that you now hold provisionally at an arms length and on a risk adjusted basis. never believing in anything in any True sense.

He’s not wrong to criticize boomers who sold out their own young. He is wrongly exculpatory of the beneficiaries, especially because they pushed to adopt these measures in the first place, now occupy many of the positions of power being generally turned over from the old guard, and have a vested interest in continuing this system.

Sure, but Savage isn't wrong. The older white male guard actively opened the door to this. Over the years, as diversity hires gained seniority, the old guard steadily lost control of the system and no few of them also found themselves fighting for their own existence – frequently by doubling down on the DEI poison to save their own skins.

Jacob Savage focusing his critique on older white men is cowardly. Many of them were spineless and contemptible. But they were responding to pressure from women/minorities whom Savage is totally unwilling to blame. And their stepping aside for unqualified DEI hires would also have been unjust, & terrible for entertainment/law/tech/etc. Savage knows this, but it's easier to blame old white men than young POC women. So he slimeily avoids breaking actual taboos by beating the deadest horse of all. Imo that suggests that had Savage been in their position, he would have also sold out young men. The fundamental flaw of the Boomers/Gen X was an unwillingness to be honest about why women/minorities are "underrepresented" amongst top performers, which created pressure for them to accept counter-discrimination as necessary. Savage isn't willing to break that taboo either, or even blame those who pushed for discrimination against him; so why would we think he'd have the courage to act differently in the shoes of an older man?