Jacobus Tanjung
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@Jacobustanjung
Sekecil apapun perbuatan baik itu, tidak ada yg sia-sia, maka berbuat baiklah selama kamu bisa.
🚨Latest Developments in the Zhang Youxia Incident 1⃣**I. Overall Assessment** Xi Jinping has not yet stabilized the situation The Zhang Youxia faction continues to take action The highest power structure of the Chinese Communist Party has not completed restructuring The military mutiny and coup attempt failed, and the matter has not yet been concluded Multiple factions have already intervened and formed a de facto joint balance Negotiations are underway; this is the only internally coherent logic that explains all abnormal phenomena This is a forced and unfinished power restructuring, rather than a coup that has already succeeded or failed. 2⃣**II. Assessment of Key Time Points** 1. The evening of January 18 was cross-confirmed by multiple parties as the time when the actual conflict occurred, marking the starting point of a rupture in the power structure 2. January 19–20: Internal information began to circulate Externally it remained at the “rumor stage” The authorities had not yet formed a unified external narrative This indicates that an internally publishable power characterization had not yet been formed. 3⃣**III. Assessment of Factional Structure and Modes of Action** The current actors are not a single faction Zhang Youxia’s military mutiny and coup did not succeed Xi Jinping’s countermeasures of arrests and purge actions also did not fully succeed The Jiang Zemin faction, the Ye Jianying faction, and Liu Yuan （former Chinese Chairman Li Shaoqi’s son) may all have intervened This is not the action of a single faction Multiple factions joined forces, compelled into cooperation This is a “forced alliance,” not a “voluntary alliance” The objectives of all parties are not completely aligned Dissatisfaction with Xi Jinping is the basis for cooperation Therefore, negotiations inevitably begin A unified alternative authority cannot be formed quickly Time is needed to coordinate interests and security boundaries Preserving the Party and preserving the regime are the driving forces 4⃣**IV. Assessment of Xi Jinping’s Current Position** 1. He has not fully taken control of the situation If he had already taken control: There should not be a continued vacuum of official information The status of key figures should not be abnormal Lists of names and propaganda narratives should have been quickly unified 2. Even if he ultimately retains his position, his power will inevitably shrink Xi Jinping has been repeatedly accused of having reached an internally unbearable risk threshold within the system If he falls into a disadvantage, he may relinquish the position of Chairman of the Central Military Commission If he holds a dominant position, he may abolish the Central Military Commission structure 5⃣**V. Evidence Chain That Negotiations Are Underway** 1. Abnormal official information No new authoritative videos Zhang Youxia’s name has not been removed from official websites (including the Chinese Communist Party website) Central-level media are collectively silent No important military officials have come forward to declare loyalty to Xi or take sides 2. Abnormal status of key individuals Xi Jinping’s elder sister Qi Qiaoqiao has not left her residence at the Shenzhen Guesthouse since the 19th Her behavior pattern is clearly inconsistent with the past The guesthouse is under a high-security state, involving control/protection/isolation 6⃣**VI. Logic of Representative Figures / Intermediaries** It is necessary for “non-direct parties” to step forward To serve as buffers To convey bottom lines To avoid direct confrontation among all parties Wen Jiabao is regarded as a feasible candidate The key is not power But his historical image of “not clearly taking sides” He is suitable as a transitional communication node The Jiang Zemin faction, the Ye Jianying faction, and Liu Yuan are participating In addition: it was already stated two days ago that Hu Jintao has passed away 7⃣**VII. The Issue of a Hereditary Successor Is a Structural Risk** The hereditary successor arranged by Xi is a long-term hidden danger Information has long been strictly sealed It has never been officially confirmed Multiple “smokescreens” have been deliberately released Different regions Different backgrounds At least four target individuals or regions A hereditary successor in Ningxia has been specifically mentioned His official career path closely replicates Xi Jinping’s early trajectory High-level security has already been involved The credibility is significantly higher than other options 8⃣**VIII. External Media and Some Influencers Are Getting It Wrong** Internal sources within the Chinese Communist Party deny current interpretations of the Zhang Youxia incident by mainstream English-language media, Such as claims by the New York Times Chinese edition And the Wall Street Journal’s reports alleging that Zhang sold nuclear intelligence to the United States; these should be regarded as deliberately released pretexts for conviction These media should be directly identified as: Media controlled by the Chinese Communist Party They fabricate narratives to divert attention Internal sources also deny the so-called “technical delay theory” Saying it reflects a serious ignorance of how the Chinese Communist Party operates They also deny the narrative-building by some major influencers Saying those narratives divert focus and manufacture alternative explanations That are not internally coherent 🚨At present, the situation is in a state of contest/negotiation/stalemate/mutual deterrence… The above information comes from Canadian writer Sheng Xue @ShengXue_ca.
