Jim

@SpecialSitsNews Keep crying, everything limit up and peace has come

Every time we announce a TACO, the market bounce will be less and less and the infrastructure damage will be longer lasting...

@WayneHines24470 @colinwalker79 Seriously? Tesla sold out in Australia until June

@colinwalker79 Little evidence that Hormuz straight crisis is effecting buyer behaviour towards EVs, yet.

"Soaring petrol prices drive record demand for EVs" "Autotrader reports 28% rise in leads for new EVs since the start of Donald Trump’s war in Iran" The EV transition is one of the best ways the UK can end its vulnerability to volatile oil markets telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/…

@TheWardenBrad Bull market confirmed

@LithiumIonBull @LithiumARG Liontown might want them :)

Congrats @LithiumARG on an excellent quarter, especially lower cost and much higher selling price guidance. $LAR

@LambDownUnder And look what's happening with EVs since the war. Oil likely to stay elevated and Tesla is sold out until June in Australia... Plus storage systems selling like hot cakes all over the world Demand is far more de-risked compared to the old cycle and it's currently in deficit

I have some IGO, but you're right, broadly I don't have any. I can't get that excited about lithium. Its too plentiful, too many mines on care and maintenance just waiting to come back online as soon as price pops to keep it down. I also think the uptake/optimism around the demand forecast is a bit misplaced so will likely disappoint. Doesn't mean it cant do well, and if things drop back further I might look at taking some more on. I'll admit it may be a blind spot of mine, but I struggle to hold any lithium with conviction.

Hopefully that's the low. Worst drawdown I've ever sat through, and it only got back to where it was in November or 5 months ago. Most of my $coal stocks are held in a different account which doesn't look as bad as this $gold heavy one. The speed of the drop is genuinely nuts.

@LambDownUnder Understandable, I'm thinking many have a similar view. The crucial thing I think people miss is how much IP China has with it and needs the industry in all it's products to succeed. Its a geo political and domestic security asset... Only Oz can provide tier 1 supply for now.

@LambDownUnder Buy Liontown and you'll be ok imo dyor

@SpachusAus Rates are going to drop hard soon, cry more

The rate cut begging brigade is out in force, inflation numbers drop tomorrow. There will be no more cheap money, this is the reset people have been waiting for. #RBA #Inflation

@sparkes_dwayne Fascinating! Thank you :)

Some random thoughts on the hard rock pegmatites as I sip my morning coffee. Nobody seems to be talking about the price of Tantalum which has just reached its highest price in 20 years. A lot of hard rock lithium companies produce Tantalum as a by-product. It’s a relatively rare metal that occurs in small quantities in pegmatites. Most deposits have an average grade of around ~130ppm Ta. It’s quite easy to concentrate given just how heavy it is compared to spodumene and the typical pegmatite associated deleterious elements. Tantalite a specific gravity of ~8 whereas spodumene comes in at ~3.1. However, its worth noting, like all metals and minerals, some deposits will have higher recovery rates and better metallurgy than others. As you can see on the diagram below, given just how heavy it is, and also that it generally contains iron, it can be removed before the flotation step with gravity and magnetic separation. The recoveries are generally quite low (I note LTR’s came in at 38% in their DFS - not sure what they are in operation). Whilst it’s low, it’s not bad for a by-product and such a simple and relatively low cost process (magnetic and gravity separation after SAG). I’d imagine it would be relatively straight forward to increase the recovery rates. For example the grind size is optimised to suit the spodumene as it’s the main game. If the tantalum price increases enough I’m wondering if there’s a sweet spot where you’d ideally tweak the grind to suit the tantalum recoveries a bit. Although I’m not sure what tantalum price you’d need to warrant that. Companies generally list it as a credit against the operating costs. In LTR’s DFS for example, they were estimating a US$48 credit per tonne thanks to tantalum concentrate sales. Which equates to a tantalum price somewhere around the ~US$84/lb CIF China mark. The current price of >30% Ta2O5 concentrate is $US260/lb (this is per contained Ta2O5). So to run through an example, last half yearly, LTR produced around 591dmt of Tantalum concentrate, which equates to 1,302,930 pounds. However, this would come out as a 12% graded product as stated in their DFS and is further upgraded offsite for a 4% loss. So total contained Ta2O5 would be 1,302,930 * 12% * (0.96) = 150,098 lbs of Ta2O5 per half year. So if you crunch the math, 150,098 x ~$US230(rough realised price) x 1.43(US to AUD) x 2 = ~$A98.7 million annually. It starts to become quite a significant credit, especially if you take into account the simplicity of concentrating it. I'm not sure of the offsite concentrating costs and its not listed anywhere. I'd imagine its still largely magnetic and gravity based so shouldn't be overly high relatively speaking compared to other processes. If the price of Tantalum continues to increase, you would think companies would start to implement/tweak processing to increase recoveries given how low they are. 38% is quite low if you ask me (using LTR as an example) and I'm sure there would be ways to increase this without hurting the spodumene output. Just a benefit hard rock mining has over brines! Maybe some of the smaller lithium players could look to implement a small scale WHIMS, etc. and start concentrating tantalum to raise early stage cash? If the price of spodumene holds above US$2000, and you throw in a juicy tantalum credit, you’re going to see some pretty decent quarters for lithium producers I'd say! Thanks for reading!

@WayneHines24470 At least the missiles aren't towards energy assets

Track peace progress by attacks rather than US statements..DYOR Invest accordingly

@k311126 Makes sense thanks

@James2464 I was told materials like plastic pipes and similar supplies used in large projects more expensive now

my mate at Reece tell me all materials at Reece bumped up by 30% now $REH

Go long lithium?

@WayneHines24470 I like the snippets

@James2464 I use snippets like this to compare various demand statistics, since folks often default to its CCP data therefore it must be inaccurate..i.e. do Customs, CABIA, CPCA, CAAP and public company data align? And ingore to spurious comments.

Chinese Carbonate Customs Data Feb 26

@KingKong9888 @JasonEBurack Eric, what about Lithium? China imports massive amounts

As I have said many times in the past, #Silver is the new Oil. Thanks @JasonEBurack for the heads up.

@WayneHines24470 I agree with this mostly. I think March sales will surprise upward

@JackFarley96 Jack I sense there's a big gap in understanding the implications of oil and lithium supply/demand dynamics in regards to China and rest of world. Could be a great talking point for a guest!

@SquirrelMacro Great conversation! Rupert, I'm surprised you didn't mention Lithium demand from China out of Australia and South America/Africa. Is this not a precious metal fundamental to the massive battery supply chain that is a pillar to the new Chinese 5 year plan/economy etc?

Thanks for having me on Jack. Always enjoy our conversations!