James Morris

It’s early and uncertain, but a few things are clear: 1. Khamenei’s death opens the region’s largest Pandora’s box. He served as either Supreme Leader or President since 1981, and defined Iran’s post-revolution trajectory. No one knows what follows his departure. 2. Regime change via air power is extremely difficult. Trump called on protestors to rise up, but the IRGC and Basij will still have the guns and the people still won’t. The security forces will need to crack or dissolve for a true political transformation. 3. That said, the transformation of Iran, either domestically or in its foreign policy, was impossible while the Supreme Leader ruled. It might be possible after his departure. 4. Trump has framed this as the necessary response to an imminent nuclear and missile threat. Not really. Iran wasn’t enriching uranium and doesn’t have ICBMs. The forcing function was the opportunity to topple a dangerous, repressive, and bloody regime while it is dramatically weakened. 5. Iran’s response so far has mixed predictable actions - shooting at Israel and U.S. bases - with others, like its attacks on civilian areas in Gulf countries. All the latter will accomplish is to unite the region against Tehran. 6. We’re witnessing the anti-Powell Doctrine in force. No attempt to build a national consensus behind war, no ground component to attain overwhelming force, no clear objective. 7. Instead Trump has preserved the flexibility to adapt based on how things unfold. He could stop in a couple of days and say the nuke and missile threat is taken care of and it’s now over to the Iranian people. He could instead continue for weeks, aiming at decisive regime change. It’s a different approach to war. 8. Hamas’ terrorist attack aimed to destroy Israel. Instead it lit a fuse that blew up the Axis of Resistance, Assad’s Syria, and now Khamenei’s Iran. For all the risk and danger, there is unprecedented opportunity for a better Middle East. 9. For all its military might, the U.S. will have only a limited role in determining the outcome. Events are in motion with no one actor calling the shots.

Voters quite like Andy Burnham and they hate Keir Starmer. That was a needlessly expensive and self-destructive way for the Labour Party to learn that lesson

We stand with Ukraine and its brave people now and always, until victory and beyond. Slava Ukraini! 🇺🇦