(((Harry Enten)))

Let's start a cute dog thread... Whose got a pup photo they wanna share?

Smells like a good weekend to rewatch 1990 and 2002 election night coverage.

Voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2024 are pissed off, & it could reshape the midterms. Trump's net approval with them is down 54 pt since Nov 2024 to -50 pt now! A lot (48%) of these non-2024 voters say they're at least very likely to vote in 2026 & they favor Dems by 31 pt.

In GOP primaries, Trump is the general & the voters are his soldiers. Paxton's chance to win the TX Sen primary are through the roof with Trump's endorsement. This follows Massie's loss & Cassidy putting up the worst Senate incumbent primary performance since at least WWII!

Talarico winning in Texas is no fantasy. He's polling better than any Dem Senate nominee at this point since 2002. Unlike O'Rourke in 2018, Talarico's ahead now. Paxton's much less popular than Cruz was. Trump is less popular now than in 2018. The GOP is right to be scared.

If the polls today were those on E-Day, a very wide range of House possibilities would exist. GOP could hold the House with redistricting (see CNN poll) to Dems blowing the GOP of the water with 20-30+ seat gain (see NYT poll). Average: Dems favored & gaining nationally.

@SeanTrende Funny, I went in the complete opposite direction and had the longest hair of all time.

Had completely forgotten about my COVID beard and buzzcut

The bottom has completely fallen out for Trump with Latino voters. After winning a record share for a GOP nominee in 2024, just 28% of Latinos approve of Trump now. The drop with Latino men is even more dramatic. He won em by 10 in 2024. His net approval now is -41 pts!

The new CNN poll should serve as a big time reality check for Dems. Yes, Trump isn't liked on the economy... but neither are the Dems. Dems' lead on the generic House ballot isn't growing. With redistricting, the race for House control is well within the margin of error.

Netanyahu has a major problem when it comes to public opinion in the United States. Those with no confidence in him is up from 42% to 59% in 3 years. And this isn't just young Dems, a higher 81% of older Dems have no confidence. Also, 58% of younger GOP have no confidence!

Part 1 of my midterm voter series: Top 10 Trump voter groups that have turned on him youtu.be/LeHTI660IuE?si…

As Indiana goes, so goes the nation: Trump still has the juice with the GOP. His approval with them is the same or higher than in past midterm cycles. Most of the GOP say party leaders should follow Trump's lead. GOP lawmakers who mess with Trump get voted off the island.

Dems, GOP & indies all agree that California's cost of living is unmanageable. It comes as Cali’s unemployment rate has run 1+ pt ahead of the nation in every month since March 2023 per CNN’s partner @USAFacts Still, Cali is still a very wealthy state. usafacts.org/ca/

Trump's ballroom is very unpopular: More people believe in ghosts (39%) & telepathy (29%) than support it (28%). The ballroom is such a political problem as it reinforces for Americans that Trump has the wrong priorities (67%) & they disapprove of him on govt. spending (67%).

It's nutter butter... Democrats lead the certain to vote category for the 1st time at this point in a midterm cycle on record. This meshes with special election results. Dems' lead nearly doubles on the generic House ballot (from 5 pts to 9 pts) among those certain to vote.

Oh my goodness on California's gas prices: the nation's highest. 1 reason? Cali's gas tax/fees are nation's highest, & the gap between Cali & the avg. state is way up per CNN’s partner @USAFacts. Most Cali voters say Cali's standards for energy/gas aren't worth added costs.

@EsotericCD I'm an old guy... but man alive interleague play is terrible... And we're dealing with just conferences now.

As formulated by Satan in conjunction with his lieutenants Hitler and Manfred.

Trump's absolutely collapsing with GOP leaning independents per WaPo & Pew polls. He got ~91% of their vote in 2024. Just 53% approve now. That 53% is down too from 73% approval he had with them in term 1 at this point. House GOP struggling too on 2026 House ballot with them

Historic: More voters blame Trump (77%) for gas prices rising than ever blamed Bush, Obama or Biden. A rare majority trifecta of Dems (95%), Indies (82%) & GOP (55%) now blame Trump. And unlike what Trump/Rick Scott argue, 64% say the war hasn't been worth higher gas prices.

@GerryDales Yes. It's why I have confidence that the small move is real & felt comfortable sharing it... Also yes... I'm not gonna use 25 seconds on explaining that, haha :).

One thing that really doesn't work on your shorts but I am confident you know, is that the further you get from 50%, the smaller the margin of error gets. Not a game-changing swing yet, but if it persists post-Trump it will be eye-opening. And if it continues to move things will be different in a hurry.

Trump's GOP is holding on to the generational gains they made with Black voters in the 2024 election. The GOP has gained 12 pts on the Dems on party id with African Americans vs. Trump term 1 at this point. Trump's approval with Black voters is higher than it was in term 1.