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Let's start a cute dog thread... Whose got a pup photo they wanna share?
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(((Harry Enten)))
92.5K posts
(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
Son of a man who was far from perfect, but I loved him anyway. Host of CNN's Margins of Error, a podcast about statistical stories. https://t.co/9MdpDsMxJd
I trust no living human, but I do trust the polls. Katılım Nisan 2010
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Trump's foreign policy ratings are going down into the Strait of Hormuz with big midterm implications.
Voters trusted him by 10 pt over Harris in 2024 on foreign policy. His net approval now is -22 pt.
Trust in him on Russia-Ukraine is down 20 pt. Voters hate him on Iran too.
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The 2026 Dem insurgency is a new tea party on steroids.
Fewer Dems approve of Dem members of Congress (47%) than the GOP did of GOP members at this pt in 2010 (52%).
More Dem House members are going down in primaries (5 so far & likely rising) than all of 2010 for the GOP (2).
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@EsotericCD My Father read that book once every six months... and belonged to the Johnson's Society.
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It's a genuine page-turner because Johnson may have authentically been one of The Most Interesting People in the World at the time.
Also features the greatest quote about my line of work ever given: "No man but a blockhead ever wrote, except for money."
QuintusCurtius@QuintusCurtius
A reminder that Boswell's "Life of Johnson" is one of the most unexpectedly enjoyable biographies ever written. Two guys in London in the late 18th century discussing everything and anything, calling each other "Sir," and living scenes of moving poignancy. It was 800 pages and I wished for 800 more.
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This is perhaps the best sign for Democrats so far: they're dominating primary turnout (casting 57% of primary ballots).
In the same states in 2022, Dems were casting 47% of the votes.
In every midterm since at least 2006, the party with higher primary turnout won the House.
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1996 was the last cycle, I believe, that Dems won Senate races in Iowa and Georgia while also losing in Maine.
Which is what the Fox News polling, if the ultimate result matched the poll, is showing.
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Right now, Dems have a math problem in taking back the Senate.
They need a net pickup of 4 seats & lead in 1 GOP held seat (NC). Rest are ties or GOP ahead.
Problem is the fundamentals.... Median of key 6 states: GOP with +6 on generic ballot. 53% say Dem party too far left.
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I've known John for 20+ years.
Tough to read. I'm glad he's doing better. We need John at full strength come snow time!
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New York Metro Weather@nymetrowx
On Sunday morning, I suffered a sudden heart attack at the ripe age of 36. I was extremely fortunate to be in the hands of good friends, family and amazing doctors that very literally saved my life. It will be a few days before i’m back in action.
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2026 marks the first time on record that more Democrats say they have little to no pride in being American (36%) than say they are very/extremely proud to be an American (27%).
Pre-9/11, it was 86% extremely/very proud & 2% little or no.
An over 90 pt shift in the margin.
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Elissa Slotkin is channeling a lot of Dems when it comes to leadership...
Schumer's net favorable with Dems is 41 pts lower (now negative) than it was last time Dems were going for a majority (2020).
His favorable rating with NY Dems is just 47%! Screams primary challenge.
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@SeanTrende Most wide open field that anyone under the median US age can remember...
No clue what might happen.
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It's why I'm unconvinced about Shapiro's chances. The Dem base hasn't fallen in love in a while, and I think they're in a mood to do so again.
David Weigel@daveweigel
A theme I mentioned in the Dan Goldman loss, and Diana DeGette's campaign, is that the Dem base wants "fighters," and the "establishment" is struggling to convince the base it's fighting effectively. So, Goldman and DeGette bring up Trump impeachment and voters are unmoved. It didn't work! Valdez, DAC, Lander highlight how they threw themselves into protests - that seems to work better in safe seats. Anyway, on my mind after listening to Joe Biden's 10-minute speech to Maryland Dems this weekend. A little bit of content: "Have you noticed, Americans today are saying the economy under the Biden administration was a hell of a lot better than under Trump?" But mostly a lot of wheezing and coughing between rhetoric about "fighting" and "getting up." "We’re the United States of America! There’s nothing, there’s literally, nothing, nothing beyond our capacity if we act together! So let’s get up and fight back, God-darn it!" That's what Dem primary voters heard in 2020, and Trump didn't go away. They heard Biden say it in 2024 and Trump won. It's just a bunch of empty words now. c-span.org/program/public…
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Trump's been the most transformative prez on border security... He's far more popular on it (+2 pt net approve) than Biden was (-23 pts).
The GOP would love to run on this issue in Nov (a 16 pt lead on the Dems).
Extending the border wall is also popular (+14 net support).
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GOP congressmen should be saying "Oh God No!" with Trump & the housing bill.
Google searches for affordability are the highest ever.
Trump was elected on bringing prices down. Now, 55% now say Trump's not keeping his campaign promises.
Polls show this will funnel down-ballot.
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Mamdani (vs. other Dems) is far closer to where Dems are on Israel.
-Dems now heavily sympathize with the Palestinians vs. Israelis (a 47 pt shift in 2.5 years to the Palestinians).
-Now 53% (vs. 34% in 2024) say AIPAC backing makes them less likely to vote for a candidate.
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What happened in NYC tonight represents a larger trend among Dems...
1. Dem Socialists (+17 pt net fav) are more popular than Dems in Congress (+4 pt net fav) with Dems.
2. Socialism's popularity with Dems is way up in the last 15 years & is far more popular than capitalism.
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I would stop drinking cream soda for 2 years to get the Bills to win a Super Bowl.
Not an actual question for most of the people either from Western NY or fans of the team of the only team in NY.
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River Cracraft Fan Club@CracraftFan
Americans, would you rather? Your NFL team wins the Super Bowl Or USA wins the World Cup
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Stunning polarization trend in views of July 4.
In 2001, 68% of GOP & 65% of Dems said they'd display a flag. Now? 64% of GOP say they will vs. 27% of Dems.
A day to celebrate the US? 65% of GOP (vs. 23% of Dems). Dems (42%) view it more as a time to be with friends/family.
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2026 may be the most promising midterm year for Georgia Dems this century.
Ossoff is a favorite to win & has raised the most $ of any Senate nominee. Bottoms has a legit shot to be gov.
It'd be the 1st year GA Dems won both the Sen/Gov race in the same year since 1990!
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As Vance goes on his book tour, his chance of being the 2028 GOP nominee has been tumbling.
Rubio's chances have gone up like a rocket.
Quinnipiac shows that Rubio is better liked with the GOP base, as Vance has faded.
Vance has a -7 pt net favorable overall in Ohio.
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