James Gruber

Semis now the largest Industry Group in SPX at 18.45%. That is up >400bps since end ‘25 and has doubled in weight since ‘24. If we re-aggregate it into the Tech Equip + Hardware group, the combination is now almost 29% of entire SPX and eclipses the dotcom peak of 26% in Aug2000.

1999 Internet bubble vs. 2026 AI revolution I will share these every day until these silly comparisons stop. 🙃

Intel +210.20% YTD Nokia +115.95% YTD BlackBerry + 61.49% YTD Ericsson +35% YTD The roaring 80’s are back baby

My main budget takeaway: super's tax preferred status has never been higher.

This budget reform is huge for ASX microcaps as investors will desperately pile into assets which generate capital losses to offset gains.

I can't believe this guy is bearish during a bull market. Haven't seen this before at all.

Imagine buying the Nasdaq at the absolute peak of the dot-com bubble in March 2000. The worst possible timing. Right before a historic crash. And yet, you‘d still be up 491% today.

Remarkable numbers here. Goldman Sachs: "The consensus of analysts is now for the mega-cap US hyperscalers to spend $755 billion on capex in 2026, representing growth of +83% vs. 2025. This capex is estimated to reach 100% of cash flows from operations this year, leaving little room to return cash to shareholders without a drawdown of cash balances or large increase in debt. Accordingly, the hyperscalers cut buybacks by -64% year/year during Q1, and now allocate 20% of total spending to buybacks and dividends compared to an average of 34% from 2017-2022."

Outside of tech, investment spending in the US is contracting.

Citadel: Only 22% of names in the S&P 500 have outperformed the index itself over the last 30D, reaching 30Y lows.