JamesSmithRF

6.3K posts

JamesSmithRF

@JamesSmithRF

Chief Economist at the Resolution Foundation. Previous lives at the Bank of England and in the civil service. Focussed on all things economic-policy related.

London, England Katılım Ekim 2018

1.6K Takip Edilen3.5K Takipçiler

JamesSmithRF@JamesSmithRF·49m

Public finances data was pretty disappointing this morning. Not ideal given war in the Middle East is likely to end up hitting the public sector finances... @elliott_xtensen has all the details for you.

Elliott Christensen@elliott_xtensen

Disappointing government spending and borrowing numbers this morning – not helpful given conflict in the Middle East is likely to worsen the public finances. Other issue today is whether the data support the OBR’s benign forecasts. Thread to follow…

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JamesSmithRF@JamesSmithRF·20h

Overall, then, BoE on hold today was as expected. But it made clear that the outlook for inflation is now much less benign. No matter what happens, the cost of living is already higher. There are now big risks from higher bills and the govt shd already be preparing to act.

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JamesSmithRF@JamesSmithRF·21h

The big issue is what happens to energy bills, though. BoE didn't have a lot to say about this but the outlook has deteriorated significantly. On this, the gov't should start planning its response right now. Here is what it should do: resolutionfoundation.org/publications/p…

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JamesSmithRF@JamesSmithRF·22h

Bank of England keeps rates at 3.75% on a striking unanimous vote. All eyes on how the BoE might change tack in the face of renewed energy shock. Thread on that to follow…

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JamesSmithRF retweetledi

Tim Leunig@timleunig·1d

Well worth reading from @hale_shale @resfoundation

Resolution Foundation@resfoundation

🚨 Out now - the Resolution Foundation response to the Chancellor’s 2026 Mais Lecture. @hale_shale argues that the priorities set out by Rachel Reeves yesterday form a credible framework for supporting stronger growth, but important gaps remain. Read it here: buff.ly/1SkyA5G

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JamesSmithRF@JamesSmithRF·1d

Our take on yesterday's Mais lecture (from @hale_shale 👏👏👏). The short version is that it's great to hear the government is doubling down on growth - but still A LOT more it can do...

Resolution Foundation@resfoundation

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JamesSmithRF@JamesSmithRF·13 Mar

Finally, this chart reminds you that we've had another weak recovery from the pandemic amidst a period of stagnation after the financial crisis. Big challenges here for the Chancellor as she prepares for next week's Mais lecture. Doubling down on growth policy is clearly needed.

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JamesSmithRF@JamesSmithRF·13 Mar

So the picture on GDP growth is not encouraging at the start of 2026. The outlook is also clouded by uncertainty around the escalating conflict in the Middle East. That won't really show up in the official data for another couple of months yet.

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JamesSmithRF@JamesSmithRF·13 Mar

Disappointing UK GDP this morning with the economy flatlining in January. Surprising given surveys suggest a decent start to 2026. Outlook clouded by conflict in Iran. Plenty for the Chancellor to worry about as she prepares for next week's Mais lecture. Short thread to follow...

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JamesSmithRF@JamesSmithRF·6 Mar

Great conversation with @Gilesyb and our @resfoundation boss Ruth Curtice on this podcast. Do check it out. (Don't worry, we don't talk about the Spring Forecast for long - there's much more on where we are now and how economic policy might unfold over the rest of this year...)

Resolution Foundation@resfoundation

"If they're not awful and bloody, then they're not the right ones" @Gilesyb spoke to us about the difficult choices still facing the Government, as we discussed the aftermath of the Spring Forecast. Subscribe to our podcast here 👉 buff.ly/lJaDs3C

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Keşfet

@elliott_xtensen @hale_shale @resfoundation @Gilesyb @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano