Kairocrypto @ricyofficial

@BobLoukas 😂😂😂 guilty

The "I'm a genius trader" stage of the Cycle seems to have started.

Comfy with my WETH bag staked in @wasabi_protocol earning yield, Blast Gold and Wasabi Points on my favorite CultureFi DEX app.wasabi.xyz/vaults/47d8700…

@CryptoGertje @BobLoukas ahole is like opinion everybody has one. doesnt mean you gotto become one! lol bob is not a daytrader and had help so many people get through the cycles. who tha fck is you? dckhead 😂

OK, just so we're not thinking with only blinders on. Here is the #bitcoin bear case. Left or Middle translated Cycle, down into a (yet to be identified) 16 yr Cycle Low in late 2025. Making this the declining 4yr cycle (4 x 4yr cycles) of a 16yr cycle. Here we would be showing either the upthrust of a distribution phase having just occurred or one more thrust to come. Is there a rational reason to believe this? Well, yes on a long time-frame. I've maintained since the first 4yr cycle videos that the Cycles will at some point give us a bear cycle. Whether it's this cycle or the next, it will come at some point. There is no power law is my argument. But to think that comes now versus later is the key question. In cycle theory, we place far greater weight on what has been occurring vs what "i am afraid" might occur. Just like trend following, we place greater weight and trust on the current trend and then look for "real" signs of a change in trend. Some points to consider though. ALT's have been dead entire cycle. Faith (outside of money/bitcoin) in crypto being revolutionary is only believed by a core group now, meaning that the retail base is not growing and the use cases have not materialized. For bitcoin many will argue it doesn't care about "crypto", but I think that's still very important in attracting new capital. New retail speculators are not asked to believe in anything revolutionary anymore, which makes onboarding difficult. We're reduced to the simplistic/lowest form of speculation now, and it's come much sooner in the cycle that before. Like betting on two flies on a wall. So what could be some of the price action signs this could be unfolding? Looking at the monthly, a close below the 10ma this stage of a bull market is a red flag. Also the current high set recently broke the consolidation trend and should follow through, so seeing price form a swing high and close below the lows of that candle would be another big red flag. So essentially a monthly close below $58,800 would have me worried. What chance would I give it? Firstly, probabilities based on arbitrary data are mostly useless, but let's throw out a number of 10-15%. What it is is a "possibility", and certainly not a zero one like many will believe. Absent of this, worrying about a bear market or early cycle top is mostly based in fear of losing your open profit. The past evidence and cyclicality highly favors this being the most opportune time of the cycle. I just want you to know that by posting mostly or only bullish views doesn't mean I think it's a certainty, I do think of other outcomes. Having a high degree of confidence on an outcome does not make it a guarantee of an outcome.

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@playsomo 💤

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Longed ETH on @wasabi_protocol blast.wasabi.xyz/perps/perp_172…

Longed ETH on @wasabi_protocol blast.wasabi.xyz/perps/perp_172…

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Let’s go Bitcoin!

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