JeffElJefe

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JeffElJefe

JeffElJefe

@JeffKCollins

winner of DFS championships | formerly employed by @warriors

San Diego Katılım Şubat 2009
806 Takip Edilen31.8K Takipçiler
JeffElJefe
JeffElJefe@JeffKCollins·
@JustinMacmahan @nastylep Ok it sounds like we agree that it would be unimaginable for him to sign it once he got onto the top prospect lists. Looked everywhere and can’t find a date other than 2017 when he was 18.
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Justin Macmahan
Justin Macmahan@JustinMacmahan·
@JeffKCollins @nastylep Right I can’t imagine he’d have signed it then. I think he had just been traded as an unranked prospect and took the deal right before breaking out in 2017 minors
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Justin Macmahan
Justin Macmahan@JustinMacmahan·
Hot Take: These deals aren’t as evil as they seem. Most guys will make more from the payment than their career because they never make it to the MLB. Long term EV is in favor of the financier, but the individual would rather operate within a range of $2m to $300m than $0 to $340m
Mike Rodriguez@mikedeportes

Fernando Tatis Jr. pierde demanda contra la empresa Big League Advance. Cuando era prospecto, Tatis recibió un préstamo de $2 millones a cambio del 10% de sus ganancias futuras en MLB y ahora le toca pagar. Con su contrato actual de $340 millones, deberá desembolsar alrededor de $34 millones, más de $240 mil en honorarios legales y también el 10% de los $3.4 millones obtenidos en arbitraje. #FernandoTatisJr

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JeffElJefe
JeffElJefe@JeffKCollins·
@JustinMacmahan @nastylep He signed the deal in 2017 so I guess it depends on when. If it was during or after that season he was clearly a top prospect — list I posted is 2018 preseason where he was already #8, BP had him #22 mid season 2017.
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Justin Macmahan
Justin Macmahan@JustinMacmahan·
@JeffKCollins @nastylep Not sure how accurate this is, but ChatGPT seems to think he signed the deal before his 2017 breakout Minor League season. And before that he was hardly a ranked prospect
Justin Macmahan tweet media
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JeffElJefe
JeffElJefe@JeffKCollins·
@JustinMacmahan @nastylep Of course the biggest bust here is a guy whose superfractor rookie card I bought — Brendan McKay. Had Tommy John surgery and his career is over. He made $900k + $7M signing bonus. Gotta get that money upfront if you’re a pitcher.
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JeffElJefe
JeffElJefe@JeffKCollins·
@JustinMacmahan I fully support that logic for someone that is actually taking a meaningful risk at not making any money. Makes sense for guys who grew up poor where this money would change their family's lives. It doesn't make sense for a kid from a rich family who already signed for $700k.
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Justin Macmahan
Justin Macmahan@JustinMacmahan·
@JeffKCollins You’re thinking about it too mathematically. It’s really just a question of getting money now or maximizing future money with the risk of never getting it at all. When we’re talking about an amount over 20m before it’s a bad choice, I think it’s totally valid to secure the bag
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JeffElJefe
JeffElJefe@JeffKCollins·
@nastylep @JustinMacmahan Not even close. I don't think people realize how good the Top 50 are. Position players that highly touted are pretty much locks to become millionaires (if they aren't already from their signing bonuses).
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JeffElJefe
JeffElJefe@JeffKCollins·
@JustinMacmahan I think it’s very unlikely he did this deal in order to invest the money elsewhere. If he’s like most teenage athlete millionaires, he’d be better off with it deferred. TVM is what the deal is offering, but $1M into $3M a couple years faster isn’t worth 10% in perpetuity.
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Justin Macmahan
Justin Macmahan@JustinMacmahan·
@JeffKCollins Yeah but if all you do is play 3 years and make $2m in contract earnings, you’d be glad you doubled your money by taking $2m up front and investing it. Time value of money is also relevant here. When they get the big contract, those dollars are worth a lot less than the initial $
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JeffElJefe
JeffElJefe@JeffKCollins·
@JustinMacmahan Not only do they get called up, but guys like him are fast-tracked and aren’t given up on quickly. Once you’re called up you’re making $500k+/year until arbitration. The position player busts are still millionaires. Pitchers are more volatile (arm injuries).
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Justin Macmahan
Justin Macmahan@JustinMacmahan·
@JeffKCollins Those top 20 prospects pretty much all get called up, but do they all earn $20m contracts after their rookie deals? I’d think it’s less reliable than people think
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JeffElJefe
JeffElJefe@JeffKCollins·
@JustinMacmahan I think it was a very bad idea at the time. If he had good advisors, he clearly ignored them. His floor was nowhere near zero. He signed for $700k at 16 and was a Top 20-50 prospect at 18 when he took the loan. Could make sense for others, but not him.
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Justin Macmahan
Justin Macmahan@JustinMacmahan·
@JeffKCollins That same line of logic could be used the other way too. With his Dad who he is, he was probably advised better than 99% of other players, and he still concluded that $2m for 10% was worth accepting. Just because he regrets it now doesn’t mean it was a bad idea at the time
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nikolina lepht
nikolina lepht@nikolinalepht·
@JeffKCollins @ClayLaSoul It 100% is, what? There’s less time to rest, it’s a higher percentage of the game. If your argument stems from NBA games being more physically demanding than WNBA games then you aren’t the brightest.
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JeffElJefe
JeffElJefe@JeffKCollins·
@nikolinalepht @ClayLaSoul You aren’t seriously claiming that 34 of 40 minutes in a WNBA game is more grueling than 34 of 48 minutes in an NBA game… Clark is the best in the WNBA. No need to make ridiculous NBA comparison claims to make her fans look dumb.
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nikolina lepht
nikolina lepht@nikolinalepht·
@JeffKCollins @ClayLaSoul Stats in general are way different but let’s not be stupid and act like playing 34 of 40 and 34 of 48 minutes are the same thing. Way less rest.
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Drunk Canuck
Drunk Canuck@DrunknCanuck·
Not trying to convince anyone of anything. You said time doesn't matter, but it does. She plays 90% of 40 minutes. If she plays 90% of 48 minutes her numbers would be even more stupid. So would Steph's fwiw. inversely if she played the same ~70% as Steph her numbers would be worse over the long run (yes she torched the Storm, but the Storm suck).
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JeffElJefe
JeffElJefe@JeffKCollins·
@DrunknCanuck @ClayLaSoul You’re trying to convince a huge Caitlin Clark fan that what’s impressive about her is the percentage of minutes she plays compared to NBA players? What a weird position to take…
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JeffElJefe
JeffElJefe@JeffKCollins·
@Sane__Thinker @ClayLaSoul @grok Use your sane critical thinking. Why would the tail end of the distribution be ~2x higher in the NBA? Could it be that there are twice as many teams?
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JeffElJefe
JeffElJefe@JeffKCollins·
@Sane__Thinker @ClayLaSoul @grok No, I’m saying that the minutes are comparable, so the shorter game length doesn’t affect people’s opinions. Comparing the two leagues is just silly in the first place. They don’t even play with the same ball. Smaller balls are easier to make (physics!). And I’m a huge CC fan.
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JeffElJefe
JeffElJefe@JeffKCollins·
@DrunknCanuck @ClayLaSoul Outside of the occasional last possession of a quarter on defense with a stoppage, Curry is never subbed out situationally. And that wouldn’t affect my point anyway. Point is: she plays comparable minutes despite the shorter game length.
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Drunk Canuck
Drunk Canuck@DrunknCanuck·
To be fair they also have a deeper bench in the NBA and can check more boxes than the benches in the W can. Allows teams flexibility i.e. in tight situations when you want press coverage, a team can carry a guy specifically to replace Steph in those situations...and that's it, teams in the W don't have that same flexibility, their bench needs to have players who can fill multiple roles, and at times multiple positions.
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JeffElJefe
JeffElJefe@JeffKCollins·
@Sane__Thinker @ClayLaSoul @grok No idea what you’re trying to argue. Reread my post. Do you think I’m saying that Clark doesn’t play a bunch of minutes or something? I’m saying she plays comparable minutes to NBA star players.
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JeffElJefe
JeffElJefe@JeffKCollins·
@m_andrews93 @ClayLaSoul There are numerous differences. But game length isn’t something that skews opinions about her numbers.
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