Jeremy Robson 🏍️🐶

@Me10Andy @rcolvile Sounds like a plan!

@JemRobson01 @rcolvile Which is why we should start building those lovely terraces again - small footprint, but cheap to buy and heat!

Sorry, Kevin, this is nonsense. Housing costs as a % of income have risen from 10% in 1957 to 30% or more. We are 6.5m homes behind European average. And the evidence from the many other countries with similar interest rates but higher housebuilding is pretty bloody clear.

@LiamHalligan As facts are important below is the Argentinian budget deficit since 2014. I don't see any 15% of gdp deficits. Perhaps it is my eyes!

Economists warn electing far-right Milei would spell ‘devastation’ for Argentina. So said the headline of a Guardian article back in November 2023. The Guardian was reporting a letter signed by 108 intellectual luminaries – including French academic Thomas Piketty and US-based Jayati Ghosh – designed to undermine arch-reformer Javier Milei ahead of Argentina’s crunch election. After years of bailouts and chronic economic mismanagement, Argentinians were enduring 220pc annual inflation and a sharply contracting economy. The country’s deeply incompetent government was running a ruinous annual budget deficit equal to 15pc of GDP. The signatories, many from leading universities, warned of economic “devastation” if Milei’s policies – “rooted in laissez-faire economics and involving contentious ideas like…significant reductions in government spending” – were implemented. The letter didn’t label him “far right” – that was an embellishment by Guardian headline writers. But it was clearly a serious attempt to prevent Milei from gaining power. 🧵2/7

"Britain's Vulnerability to War exposes the need for fundamental reforms" My latest @Telegraph column Follow this thread, for a full explanation. 🧵1/7 telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/…

UK- is not self sufficient in food (about 40% imported) gas (45% imported) & oil (44% imported) and has no mining capacity to speak of. In a world less globalisitic (as the money runs out) it is a matter of time before this matters. The future is going to get ugly.

@kelvmackenzie 29 will likely be a hung parliament. Implied betting odds are 76% that it will be a right wing coalition. The onlly last question is what right wing coalition. Opinion- it won't happen before 29 but just after.

Accept Cameron to Sunak betrayed us at every turn but the reality is that a Labour-Green-Lib Dem offering will be too strong for Reform to defeat on their own. When it comes to picking candidates Farage can force out Tories lefties like Dr Ben Spencer, my useless MP for Weybridge and Runnymede. Unite the Right.

Labour fuck ups w/e 5/4/26 Waiting lists reduced by refusing scans & procedures Israel envoy says Starmer has no spine No reduction in fuel duty or any other duty! Gdp per cap growth for 4th qtr -.1% Starmer gets hecled outside the HOC

@PolemicTMM 😃

Today's post Just Make it Stop. polemicpaine.substack.com/p/just-make-it… Hormuz shuts, fuel goes up, holidays cancel and suddenly the barbaric regime has legitimate grievances. Not hypocrisy. Something more predictable and considerably more depressing - what stress actually does to conviction when the cost becomes personal.

@seledka_vodka Just info but Uk is about .9% of the world.

No one serious is claiming that North Sea oil and gas is state-owned. That's a strawman. The actual argument is about what extracting it does for Britain - and the answer is straightforward. North Sea oil gets sold on the global market, yes. Around 80% of it bypasses our refineries entirely, partly because those refineries were built to process Libyan crude, not the light sweet crude the North Sea produces. Fine. But when oil companies extract that oil and turn a profit, the Exchequer taxes that profit. That tax revenue is real money that can subsidise bills during supply disruptions. That's our stake - and it's a legitimate one. Gas is even more direct. North Sea gas feeds straight into the UK pipeline network. Britain consumes between 65% and 85% of the gas it extracts domestically. It stabilises supply. It generates taxable profit. There is no coherent argument for leaving it in the ground. Now, climate. Britain produces less than 2% of global greenhouse emissions. Not a single major polluter on earth is adjusting their behaviour based on UK climate commitments. What actually happens when we strangle our own energy sector in pursuit of rapid decarbonisation is simple - we de-industrialise, we export jobs to China, and China builds EVs powered by coal. We get poorer. The climate is unaffected. Leaving recoverable North Sea reserves untouched doesn't save the planet. It just makes Britain weaker.

@Artemisfornow They are just after increasing their followers & think that in your face does it.

Wow, has anyone else noticed a huge increase in nasty bots and sock puppets? I usually get a mix of people who agree and disagree on my feed and there are some good discussions and points on all sides but suddenly my feed is full of insults from tiny accounts. Just me?

@juneslater17 Reform is now past it's sell by date and is on discount. My guess is that there will not be more takers despite the reduction. The next 2 yrs are going to be interesting but I am happy that the coalition in 29 will be a right wing one.

I have 251,000 followers on TwitterX. I used to love it . I still enjoy ripping politicians a new one 😉 Generally l leave the ones on the Right alone. I may well see their flaws but they pretty much want many of the things that I do. So I don't engage. Where it's become unenjoyable, After I make a post on my own page ...the viciousness of the right completely outweighs attacks from the left. I've made it clear where my support lies and I've shared my reasoning many times. It's all pretty practical stuff Yet those who support other much more recent parties think it's ok to come on the thread insult my intelligence and claim my support is because of some bonkers crush on Nigel Farage. 🙄 I haven't had a crush on anyone since the 5th form when I drooled over Donny Osmond and stuck a photo of his face on my mate's head so she could pretend to be him mining to Puppy Love. It was a complete disaster as she started hyperventilating cause I'd stuck it on too tight and she couldn't get any air in . It was as I was sellotaping Donny's lips back together so I could still use the photo on my wall as a pun up, that I realised it was probably better to concentrate my efforts on local boys rather than Donny. I was keen, but I didn't join The Mormons. I see it like this .. I'm in a war and I need to be around plenty of soldiers and weaponry, who's got the most? Who's made the most progress? Who actually has a chance ? Who's got some experience? The others may make really good tweets and possibly get amplified by favourable algorithms but that doesn't turn into seats. Seats come from people chucking their hat in the ring and daring to stand as a candidate. This is a hard slog. These council elections are showing how difficult that job is. Reform are currently vetting 5000.. How many has your team got ? I never tell you who to vote for I just tell you what I'm doing and how my chosen team are doing so far .. That's it ..so there no need to call me a moron or a fool or twist what I say .. I don't go in your page and do it to you . I only retaliate if you come on my thread.. As far as crushes and being a fan girl are concerned ... I can assure you as I rub magnesium on my knees at night, Take my keep me alive supplements, do my stretches then I can unfold slightly better than a Blackpool deckchair I'm not the slightest but interested in anything but the political outcome for this country. .

@L__Macfarlane Austerity? I must have missed that!

Remember: for years the UK had negative borrowing costs. We could’ve build infrastructure, resilience, capacity. Instead, we chose austerity. Now we’re paying the price in so many ways.

Just a thought- The straights are the choke point. It is probably the last time in modern history that this happens. All of the gulf is going to diversify how it moves oil in the near future. Iran is most likely one and done on this bargaining chip! Doesn't help now but it will.

Off on a tour to southern India for 16 days from Bangalaru to Chennai on Tuesday. Hoping I don't get stuck in India with a lack of fuel! Should be OK!

@UrbanKaoboy Nice post- realistic!

Musings of the Day, 4/2/26: Just got off a call with Apollo Private Credit/BDC team, and they corroborated many of my beliefs: - Social media/MSM doomsaying over Private Credit/CLOs massively overdone - Especially "irresponsible" for some of the bank talking heads fanning the flames, some of whom were levered 30x during GFC - Many of the Credit Doomsday scenarios being projected are WORSE than GFC, when actual default experience has been pretty benign - "Is the house on fire?" CLEARLY NOT - Spreads are attractive now - "95% of our loans are cash-flowing (NOT PIK)" - Covenants alone will not save the day; TOTALITY of documentation matters for recovery - "If you're concerned about the CREDIT in Software, then that means the Equity is WIPED." 1000% -- see below: My 2c and reminder to all: - Equity Terminal Value Erosion is NOT the same as Imminent Mass Defaults - IF the Credit Markets are right, the EQUITY Markets would be AT LEAST 20-30% lower imho - CAPITAL STRUCTURE matters, and this is one of those weird situations where SENIOR securities (and their derivatives) have been hammered much more than JUNIOR securities (Equities) - Read my own view of the SAASpocalypse part of the Credit Doomsaying from the trenches here: x.com/UrbanKaoboy/st…

@yieldsearcher Where do you think that the 10yr tops? At 5% 30 around 4.4%? I am trying to decide (probably foolishly) where to put the top in rates.

@JemRobson01 All fair pts. Not calling the bottom on rates, but do feel it gets sensitive at 5% 30Y.

Another thing to note back in 07-08. With $147 oil, headline CPI (blue) went up from 2.1% to 5.6% YoY. But core PCE (orange) stayed rangebound at low-2s before the collapse. Headline figure will move up. But the Fed and bonds follow core. Not a certainty this will move big.

@LeeHurstComic Poor interviewer!

Had she just had sex in the cupboard with the interviewer just before they filmed this?

@andrew_lilico Nope. Restore have not formulated any financial policies.

Is there a political party I should vote for if I actually want to change anything about the UK's macroeconomic management?

@DPJHodges And about £20bln per year!

Amidst the EU excitement people are ignoring one basic fact. Europe won't have us back unless we accept free movement. And Starmer can't. That's it.

@Haryan_Glaeddyv You made the right decision!

Screw it, it's over, I'm joining Restore.