John Wix

$CRDO they don’t shake the tree unless there’s something good at the top

$GFS Everyone going down all these rabbit holes for alpha… when you can just buy a company called “GlobalFoundries” and they have foundries across the globe

$GFS is the type of sentiment that gets you a re-rating later. What if their investor day wasn't cope? How high does it go?

Absolutely true — I was meeting with those same telco equipment guys regularly in 2000. Also irrelevant to the point I was trying to make. Back then, supply could largely keep up with demand because there was massive underutilized wafer capacity coming out of the 1998 Asian crisis that could ramp quickly. The relatively quick supply response led to an overbuild, which caused the crash as the overbuild was largely debt funded which required an immediate ROI for the CLECs to service their debt. There is no comparable slack in the system today. Leading edge wafers and power are both structurally constrained, and neither can be turned on in a matter of months. That’s the core difference imo. And obviously the largest buyers of compute will have no trouble servicing their debt anytime in their near future. I might be wrong, we might be in a bubble, you might be right, time will tell. Good luck!

The 800V transition discourse has descended into full retail psychosis. Watching people rank Navitas vs. Infineon vs. onsemi by who has the lowest RDS(on)·Qg product is genuinely hilarious because you fucking retards think a 15% advantage over one supplier or the other matters when that ‘edge’ doesn’t survive the first round of price negotiations. If your investment thesis requires you to cross-reference reverse recovery charge curves, zero-voltage switching loss at 1MHz, or whether GaN HEMT enhancement-mode beats SiC MOSFET trench in a specific 11kW OBC topology…. congratulations, you’ve already lost. If you need to LARP as a power electronics engineer to justify a position you probably shouldn’t have the position at all. People got rewarded once for being “technical” about HBM stacks and now think every semi cycle resolves by reading spec sheets harder. It doesn’t. The 800V transition isn’t a horse race and margin compression in WBG power discretes is already accelerating, the Chinese GaN entrants are coming in 30-40% under incumbent ASPs. Also, ‘GaN vs. SiC’ isn’t one trade, it’s four trades where traction inverter, OBC, DC-DC, and server PSU each have different winners and different timelines, and anyone pitching a single device vendor as ‘the 800V play’ is telling on themselves for how little they know about anything. The Infineon bulls and the Navitas bulls are both going to get cooked because they’re fighting over who supplies the picks during a gold rush where the actual scarcity is somewhere else entirely. There’s a vastly cleaner way to express this thesis with better unit economics, less competitive intensity, and exposure that compounds through the entire 800V buildout regardless of which device wins which socket. But watching people brute force datasheet comparisons into a thesis is genuinely entertaining, so I’m content to let the AI psychosis play out a bit longer.

Crazy all the Barron Trump is buying memes were real... and somehow he only owned <$50K $INTC

$POET POET Technologies Secures $400M Registered Direct Offering • POET Technologies announced a registered direct offering totaling approximately $400M • The financing includes common shares and warrants

im keen on $wfyi for Aschenbrenner 13f. he has a tiny position, it is one of the few things he is holding that hasn't multi-bagged. anyone on that much of a heater is likely to trims some off the runners and double down on the one that haven't played out - assuming the thesis is not impaired. $wfyi thesis is as strong as ever. also $FCEL seems like a coin toss in terms of a position. at this point feels like 2x on commons right out the gates if the coin is in your favor, and has a good change of running anyway whether its on the 13f or not.