Joe

@0xSnorlax @FirstSquawk @grok There is no meaningful impact.

@FirstSquawk @grok explain the impact of this to me in simple terms

RECORD US DEBT WALL AHEAD $10 TRILLION OF US GOVERNMENT DEBT WILL MATURE IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS — HIGHEST EVER

@Barchart The yield curve is saying nothing.

The Strait of Hormuz Is Just a Distraction 👀 The Real Story Is Bonds 🚨 What the Yield Curve Is Saying 🎤 barchart.com/story/news/864…

@toiletkingcap Good call! (So far at least)

did you get long gold at the magic jackson hole line?

@KristinaRevay @SamanthaLaDuc Long dated TIPS give you a decent real rate.

@SamanthaLaDuc Call me old fashioned, I want something of value that is REAL, not the FED printing press.

Find safety in the ultra, ultra short duration treasuries cuz 2y notes auction didn't make a good showing, and we have 5Y & 7Y to go this week!

@SantiagoAuFund Simpsons and the 90s?

Name a TV show or movie that better defined an era than Miami Vice and the 1980. You can’t. Don’t even try. Just stop… youtu.be/-aMCzRj3Syg

@BankUnlimited If I have to guess one would probably get more business insights watching National Geographic than listening to this podcast. In fairness though I the most I’ve ever listened is 5 minutes.

The “all in” slopcast is bull spamming $TAO 😬

@NikLentz In general terms and current politics aside, your point is more relevant if you and whoever you’re addressing are in agreement on what their interests actually are.

If you’re rooting against your own interests just to spite someone, you’re not thinking clearly… and you’re too weak to compete.

@MostlyQuality @conksresearch Government doesnt need debt to spend or invest.

@conksresearch if government debt does not matter.. why does citizen debt matter?

@toiletkingcap Indeed! Here are two other big ones: - principles / beliefs only apply when convenient. - people would rather hear what comforts them rather than what's true.

my biggest takeaway in life that I wish was made clear younger is that for almost every single person to have ever lived, the ends actually do justify the means

@TommyThornton @GarethWscourF I'll give you a follow for this.

@BenKizemchuk Do you think it’ll take something like a lousy unemployment report for bonds to truly inflect as stocks continue to drop?

Positive momentum inflection on TLT quarterly chart

@GuyAdami Income to the private sector

4.39% … no bueno

@kkmaway @Idttlol or just duration... timing this thing won't be easy

@Idttlol Cash then duration, more like it.

The real question in this dip is if you have some cash to spare, are you buying bonds or stocks....duration of the conflict end up being the determining factor...IOW, don't hate bonds so much. It pollutes your thinking.

@fejau_inc I'll buy those and tips from you if you're selling.

Yeah not great

@BowTiedLobster @BickerinBrattle I would think there would still be some levers from a fiscal standpoint the admin can pull (front loading, tariff adjustments, emergency spending, etc). I don’t know though if they would be effective in the short run. If not then you’re probably right.

@Joe19nn @BickerinBrattle He did it in advance. OBBB passed last year. If you're expecting more you have been swept up in the "Trump is always dovish" animal spirits of last year instead of analyzing what is likely to happen. Congress controls the purse. The jet pack is a trampoline.

OK here is my call. 1) Trump has won this war, just has to extract himself from the Israel lobby and leave them with the residual. Straits of Hormuz as shown by $95 oil are in process or are opened. 2) Oil drops swiftly to $70. Happy Grofaz 4 d chess rally in SP500 comes about. 3) Realities of circular financing and mirage of AI reality, now confised with anecdotal use of Grok or Claude reduces the claimed $1.5 tril footprinted priced in to about $300 bil from 23 to date, and the remaining $200 bil over next 3 years. All AI related drop to here and now reality losing about 40% in price. 4) this will likely shake a major bank and or financial entity to the ground 5) Fed is already aware of this risk and will swiftly cut Fed Funds, likely at this FOMC 6) Warsh to be speedily confirmed and if Fed Funds not at 2% already will quickly move them there 7) 30 year treasurys rally (rates drop) by about 1/2% 8) the great crash of 2025 (not joking) commences - especially as becomes clear a recession started by Trump fiscal policy in 2025. BEA reveise one or two quarters in 2025 to flat or even negative 9) SP500 challenges 4000 and then.... But for now Trump won the war!!!!

@Ronitper and sell a newsletter

“If you’re going to invest against the crowd, you must be prepared to look wrong for a very long time.” — Michael Burry

@SJosephBurns You also have to live with the fact that the profession has zero value add to society. In fairness though a similar argument can be made for many other professions.

I'm an introvert. One big reason I love trading is that you can do it alone. No boss, no employees, no clients, no customers. Success and failure depends on your own actions.

@TacticzH Well if it’s RIP then I might as well add to it.

$ADBE - Just when you think this can't get any lower. RIP shareholders. Hang in there.

@docmilanfar Respectfully, you clearly haven’t gone out enough. There’s way worse.

the worst person you’re likely to meet is someone who demands your full loyalty, without offering any in return