Joe Thorpe

77 posts

Joe Thorpe

@JoeThorpePM

Global (DM/EM/Frontier) Rates and FX PM @ Baillie Gifford | $BAGEY Co-Manager | TradFi Native, DeFi Destined Views are my own

London, England Katılım Mayıs 2026

66 Takip Edilen29 Takipçiler

Joe Thorpe@JoeThorpePM·12h

It is weird we are seeing G10 carry names outperforming, USD in the middle, then EM weaker. The EM bit makes sense, but why G10 outperforming USD? Probably due to rate differentials as the other G10 central banks will hike if this persists, we are still not sure about the Fed

English

Joe Thorpe@JoeThorpePM·12h

US/Iran conflict back as a theme in markets, will be interesting to see if: 1) the blockade goes ahead, 2) the US continues striking Iranian military targets, and 3) (the big one) when/how does Iran respond? Markets for now are generally looking through this episode

English

Joe Thorpe@JoeThorpePM·1d

Market will struggle to price a real escalation unless we see a sustained breakdown of transit in the Strait. Until then, it will be assumed all these flare ups are just part of the path towards some new normal.

First Squawk@FirstSquawk

Axios citing a US official: The US military launched strikes an hour ago on missile systems, air defenses, and small boats of the Revolutionary Guard at two sites in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz

English

Joe Thorpe@JoeThorpePM·4d

The term being used in the market is "the summer of carry", and if vol stays as low as it then can certainly be true. cable 1m vol

First Squawk@FirstSquawk

GBP/USD ONE-YEAR VOLATILITY DROPS TO 6.9275%, LOWEST LEVEL SINCE FEBRUARY 2020.

English

Joe Thorpe@JoeThorpePM·4d

If they are able to just slow that flow, it will be very positive for the Yen and JGBs. It also shouldn't be that hard given that JGBs (particularly belly and long end) are highly attractive on a hedged yield basis

English

Joe Thorpe@JoeThorpePM·4d

Can Japan turn the corner? Interesting comments last night from Katayama urging domestic investment in Japan. Japan's long term issue is their massive net international investment position (i.e. they recycle massive current account surpluses offshore).

English

Joe Thorpe@JoeThorpePM·5d

Hungarian bond yields approaching UK bond yields as the market prices their path to EUR adoption (and UK slow burn deterioration). If they follow through though, HGBs should trade with a small premium to Bunds, so still plenty of juice in the trade.

English

Joe Thorpe@JoeThorpePM·6d

... doesn't scream hikes.

English

Joe Thorpe@JoeThorpePM·6d

RBNZ hiked overnight to 2.5% OCR, though softened guidance on future rate hikes. Estimates of the terminal rate of the hiking cycle have come down over the last month, but I still struggle to see the justification for more hikes with this inflation outlook...

English

Joe Thorpe@JoeThorpePM·7 Tem

It's the human condition to want to do more with more, not do the same with less. Also basic game theory suggests that companies should use AI to expand, as if they try to do the same with less, while their competitors do more, they will lose in the long run.

English

Joe Thorpe@JoeThorpePM·7 Tem

Something weird going on with CEE inflation, we have had consecutive downside surprises driven by goods and food inflation. Today was more of the same. No Economist I have spoken with seems to really understand why.

English

Joe Thorpe@JoeThorpePM·6 Tem

But there are also plenty of good roll opportunities in DM too!

English

Joe Thorpe@JoeThorpePM·6 Tem

I spend a lot of time screening the universe of sovereign markets looking for the best combination of yield, roll yield, duration, credit quality. Some other solid Emerging Markets offer great roll

English

Joe Thorpe@JoeThorpePM·6 Tem

There is a big difference between buying Brazilian bonds today and 3 months ago for $BAGEY. Why? It's the shape of the yield curve, and a little thing called Roll (or Roll yield).

English

Joe Thorpe@JoeThorpePM·6 Tem

This kind of graph is generally true for most frontier FX trades, but Egypt are a bit more willing to let the spot returns follow the market than other (like Türkiye at the other end of that spectrum) Was looking at total return for being long TRY the other day.. that Sharpe 😍

English

Joe Thorpe@JoeThorpePM·6 Tem

I am a big fan of long EGP positions and this chart from GS nicely makes the case for more spot appreciation of the FX if we continue to get foreign inflows (which we will as long as the external environment stays benign and oil remains low)

English

Keşfet

@elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano @BillGates @NASA @nikifrancismediavine @katyperry