@owenjonesjourno You point out that he's dangerous, that he still has a knife that he's clearly not wanting to let go of. But then you ask why extreme force is necessary. That's pretty embarrassing for you I'd say.
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JR
4.5K posts
JR
@John_R_Mitchell
The essence of the independent mind lies not in what it thinks, but in how it thinks - Hitchens
UK Katılım Aralık 2012
376 Takip Edilen81 Takipçiler
I'd like an expert to explain this to me.
This is a dangerous would-be murderer with a knife who needed to be apprehended.
He's been tasered, but still has the knife.
He's repeatedly kicked in the head.
I'd just like that explained.
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The Metropolitan Police denouncing a party leader a week before elections - over a retweet.
This is outrageous.
Forget what you think about the retweet.
If you accept this sort of police interference in our democracy, you legitimise a deeply disturbing precedent.
Metropolitan Police@metpoliceuk
“Apprehending violent and dangerous criminals is a full contact and messy task which may appear shocking to observers with little experience of policing in the real world.” Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley writes to Zack Polanski.
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@JamesQueallyLAT Am I allowed to assault someone if I find offence in what they say?
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A 'MAGA influencer' told a gay couple there were 'statistics' showing they were likely to molest their child. (There are not.) Now, support grows for West Hollywood dad who threw punches. My latest: latimes.com/california/sto…
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@KinseyJohn30181 @elonmusk Labelling half the population as evil is not a sensible opinion.
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@elonmusk Democrats are pure evil. They hate Trump and America so much, they will use children as young as 5 years old as activists. It must be corrected. The future of our children depends upon fixing the problem.
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@susie_dent Yes, there is no proper plural of sheep, so I use sheeps. Not my own invention, and I share usage with millions of toddlers.
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A question: what are the things you wish there was a word for? And have you come up with your own word to fill that gap?
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@sdfgh32957097 @theramblingfool Yeah, exactly that.
I think it's a really interesting result, that blue is optimal at exactly p(red) = 0.5, but if you move that a tiny bit the result changes massively, to a strong red preference one way and effectively irrelevance the other way.
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@John_R_Mitchell @theramblingfool Wow, I was skeptical so I ran a python simulation and indeed it really doesn't matter. However there is a provable slight preference for blue so small it is statistically meaningless. So optimal stays blue at p(red)<0.5.
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If you're smart enough to understand the hypothetical requires analytical reasoning, but not smart enough to evaluate the hypothetical's actual complexity, you're going to be wrong and very confident. And anyone who understands enough to get it right will look stupid to you.
Crémieux@cremieuxrecueil
Red and blue button pushers: who's smarter? In a mostly-subscriber sample who took a brief verbal IQ test, the answer is... Blue pushers! If the whole population has an IQ of 100 with an SD of 15, their mean IQ would be 101.9, versus 97.0 for reds.
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@ra44ytaffy Ok, well thanks for the honest reply. Definitely a different viewpoint to me. I could definitely be persuaded in the standard scenario. But at a higher threshold it makes no sense to me
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@John_R_Mitchell Changing the threshold doesn’t change the structure— the rule is the same. There is no % where I’d choose red.
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Do you believe people deserve to live?
If your answer changes the moment it costs you, it isn’t a belief, it’s a preference.
MrBeast@MrBeast
Everyone on earth takes a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press? BE HONEST.
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@BanhmiBrieoche Thing is, he is right, and it's not as trivial as it sounds
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Mansplaining weightlessness to an Astronaut on the ISS
Alright buddy
Bill Simon@ThirdPlanettt
You are not in "micro gravity." You are "weightless." You are weightless because you are in perpetual free-fall toward Earth by Earth's significant gravity. The reason you do not hit the Earth is your horizontal velocity is such that the ground curves underneith you at the same rate you fall toward it. Hence, you orbit. But you orbit in a very strong gravitational field, one strong enough to hold the Moon in orbit 240,000 miles away. So, at a few hundred miles above Earth, where you are, gravity is far from "micro."
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@ra44ytaffy "Your rule accepts outcomes where others die while you live."
Yes, this is accurate.
If the threshold needed for everyone to survive was 99% blue button pushes are you still voting blue?
If you have a cut off, where is it?
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@John_R_Mitchell There’s nothing inaccurate about it. You’re just reading it as causation. I’m not claiming that.
Your rule accepts outcomes where others die while you live. I won’t choose that rule.
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@reddit_lies Pressing blue saves more expected lives by quite a lot.
BUT that's ONLY IF you assume everyone has exactly a 50/50 chance of pushing each button.
If it moves beyond 49.9997 : 50.0003 then red button saves more expected lives.
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@ra44ytaffy You keep using inaccurate phrasing.
Nobody dies so that someone else may live.
They're not dying for my survival. The two things are not related.
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@John_R_Mitchell This isn’t probabilities, it’s principles. Your rule accepts outcomes where others die for your survival.
I refuse to benefit from a rule where others die so that I might live.
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@sdfgh32957097 @theramblingfool As p(red) moves away from 0.5, the chance of a tie decreases hugely.
Lives saved with red push is 1 when red wins overall, 0 otherwise.
Blue needs exact tie to have an impact.
Grok calculated that at p(red) = 0.49997, expected lives saved are equal when pushing red or blue.
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@John_R_Mitchell @theramblingfool Oh okay, How did you get the value for p(red)<0.49... My intuition tells me regardless of the p(red) either blue or red should save more lives as they shift the distribution right or left which changes the expected lives saved.
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@Noahpinion How many people believe the things Sam Altman says in public?
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This is a HUGE messaging pivot. For many years, replacing humanity was the explicit stated goal of OpenAI as a company, and of a large number of top people in the AI industry.
Very glad to see this rhetorical pivot.
Sam Altman@sama
we want to build tools to augment and elevate people, not entities to replace them.
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@mysteriouskat It's understandable, they want to protect the workers in the industry.
Eventually they'll have to change that rule or become even more irrelevant.
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The Academy has BANNED anyone from winning an Oscar if it's an AI generated performance or script.
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@ra44ytaffy Ok, sure. But you said a red button pushers survival was dependant on other people dying.
It isn't.
In fact it has virtually no chance of ever impacting other people's survival.
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@John_R_Mitchell That’s an expected value argument. I’m not arguing outcomes— I’m pointing out the structure of the choice.
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@psilodick @PeterMcCormack Yeah, that's included in my hours. As I said, contact time was about half my working hours.
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A minimum wage of £15 would end my coffee shop, it would have to close, as would many other businesses.
I’ll explain for the economically illiterate.
Staff costs are currently half our costs, a £15 minimum wage is actually more than £15 an hour for the company, because you have to add:
- 12.07% holiday
- Sick pay
- Maternity pay if and when required
- National insurance
- Pension contributions
These costs would mean the shop loses money because remember, energy costs are up, rates are up, regulations are up.
Now you can pass these costs onto the consumer - that would mean charging a lot more for coffee, people won’t pay it. The likes of Starbucks and Costa can, because they have economies of scale. The independent doesn’t.
Now the little socialist will say well this is your fault, if you can’t run a business that can afford to pay its staff properly, but the little socialist has never run a business and does not understand the dynamics.
Now I could pay some staff off and fill those hours myself or reduce us to one staff member during certain periods - but this proves the point that a minimum wage costs jobs.
There was a time when these jobs were done by kids, perhaps on the weekend, paid a lower wage, no holiday and no silly employment rights. Perhaps they were even paid cash. The dynamic worked and small businesses like this could operate. It was also a great first job. Sadly now it isn’t worth employing entitlement youngsters at this level of pay.
So alas, I don’t need the stress, the business would close, a number of jobs would be lost.
Economics is about understanding these dynamics, no vibes.
The cost of living is not solved through passing on inflation to the business, it is solved by ending high inflation and creating prosperity. This is what socialists don’t understand, they can’t create prosperity, they can only destroy it.
Harry Eccles@Heccles94
The Greens will raise the minimum wage to £15 for all workers 💪
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@sdfgh32957097 @theramblingfool Sorry, was unclear due the character limit.
P(red) is the probability of each individual voting red.
Chance of an exact tie (only time blue vote matters) works out to be ~0.00001 when p(red) is exactly 0.5.
Then multiply by 4,000,000,000 to get ~35,000 expected lives saved.
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@John_R_Mitchell @theramblingfool Why is it only 35000 shouldn't it be ~4 billion at p(red) = 0.5. I mean even if that is the sample size this doesn't really tell me what to think. Expected lives saved depends on the probability mass each of p(red) values has.
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@ra44ytaffy First predict what others will do, call it p(red). Judge outcome by expected number of lives saved.
At p(red) = 0.5 exactly: Blue saves 35000 lives vs. 0.5 lives for red.
If p(red) > 0.500026 red vote saves more lives.
If p(red) < 0.49997 your vote doesn't matter.
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@ra44ytaffy Also not true. A red vote doesn't prevent a blue win. It is not a conditional requirement that others die.
I just did some maths on this. If you want to maximise the number of lives saved then blue is the best choice only under extremely narrow conditions.
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@ra44ytaffy Others dying doesn't protect anyone in the red/blue scenario
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@John_R_Mitchell Small background risk isn’t the same as a rule where others dying is what protects you.
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