Johnson

Is the Nigerian stock market overpriced? Let’s talk about it. The market P/E ratio right now is 13.9x. The 3 year average is 9.4x. That means we’re trading about 48% above historical norms. Year to date, the market is up 55.69%. The ASI has risen over 740% since 2015 but company earnings didn’t grow anywhere close to that. So what’s driving this? Banks posted massive profits from FX revaluation when naira crashed. That money was a one time event, not real business growth. Then PenCom raised pension fund equity limits in February 2026, potentially unlocking N1.6 trillion for stocks. More money chasing the same stocks means higher prices, not better companies. What does this mean for you? The era of “buy anything on NGX and win” is done. From here, returns depend on actual company performance. You’re no longer buying at a discount. You’re paying fair to full value. Not saying don’t invest. Saying be selective. Focus on companies with real earnings growth and solid fundamentals. When prices rise faster than profits, be careful. That’s not pessimism. That’s math.

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GTCO paid me dividend yesterday, so let me use this opportunity to teach you something. A lot of you want to enter the stock market, but you don't know how to look at a company and decide if it's worth your money. Let me show you using GTCO's Q1 2026 results. The first thing I look at is profit. Did the company make money? GTCO made N302.9 billion profit before tax in just January to March 2026. Three months. And that's even higher than the N300.3 billion they made in the same period last year. So the company is not slowing down; it's growing. Next thing. Where is the money coming from? GTCO earned N467 billion from interest income alone this quarter. That means the bank is collecting money from you as deposits, lending it out to businesses and individuals, investing in government securities, and earning interest on all of it. That N467 billion is up from N397 billion same time last year. The engine is getting stronger. Then I check deposits. Are more people trusting this bank with their money? Customer deposits moved from N12.55 trillion in December to N13.21 trillion by March. In 3 months, over N660 billion in new deposits came in. People are bringing more money to GTCO. That's fuel for the business. Now here's one a lot of beginners miss. E-business income. This is the money GTCO makes every time you do a transfer, pay a bill online, buy something with your card, use the GTWorld app. That number went from N13 billion to N21.9 billion. 69% growth in one year. This is the future of banking and GTCO is eating well from it. I also check how safe the bank is. The Capital Adequacy Ratio tells you how much capital the bank has to absorb losses. CBN says banks need at least 15%. GTCO is sitting at 43.8%. Almost 3 times the minimum. This bank is not going anywhere. Total assets are now N18.75 trillion. This is a company that operates in Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, UK, Cote d'Ivoire, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Gambia, and Tanzania. When you buy GTCO shares, you own a piece of all of that. And the dividend? They paid N12.76 per share for 2025. That's the money that landed in my account yesterday without me doing anything. I held the shares, the company made profit, they shared part of it with me. This is what I want you to understand. You don't need to be a genius to invest. You just need to learn how to ask 4 simple questions about any company. Is it making profit? Yes. Is the profit growing? Yes. Are more people using it? Yes. Is it financially safe? Yes. When all four answers are yes, you're looking at a solid company. Now go open a brokerage account and start learning. The stock market is not as scary as you think. You've just been looking at it from the outside.