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Arsenal vs Burnley Player Projections Arsenal: 5 players above 30% to score (Havertz 55%, Eze 42%, Saka 38%, Trossard 38%, Magalhães 36%). Burnley with only 1 above 10% (Flemming 26%). Scoring: Havertz 55%, 0.84 xG Shots: Eze 4.2 projected Creating: Odegaard 0.51 xA Havertz is the headline. 4 goals in his last 4 PL games vs Burnley. First start back after injury. #ARSBUR #PremierLeagu

Arsenal vs Burnley Match Preview Win probability: Arsenal 71%, Draw 18%, Burnley 11%. Total xG: 3.01. xG split: 2.47 vs 0.54. Arsenal projected for 4.5x Burnley's attacking output. Goal lines: O1.5 81%, O2.5 58%, O3.5 35%. BTTS at 39% (unlikely). Arsenal 71% to score 2+. Burnley 10%. #ARSBUR #PremierLeague

Arsenal vs Burnley Every point matters for Arsenal. A win moves Arsenal 5 points clear of Manchester City ahead of City's trip to Bournemouth tomorrow. Six points from six clinches the first Premier League title since the Invincibles of 2003/04 (22 years). Arsenal have won all 10 PL games against already relegated sides this Premier League era. Burnley have won just 1 of their last 27 top-flight games. Conceded 3+ in each of their last 3 away matches. #ARSBUR #PremierLeague

Inter Miami vs Portland Timbers Player Projections The standout scorer pick: Messi at 73% to score, 1.26 xG, 6.0 shots projected (not a real surprise). Telasco Segovia at 0.57 xA, the highest on the entire fixture. Segovia is also Miami's top assist provider this season (5). The standout away pick: Kelsy 42% to score. Portland's striker has 4 goals in his last 4 matches. #MIAvPOR #MLS

Inter Miami vs Portland Timbers Match Preview Miami: 0 wins in 4 home games at the new Nu Stadium (3 draws, 1 loss). Portland: Never earned an MLS away point against a Florida-based club. Miami 56%, Draw 25%, Portland 19%. Total xG 4.00. BTTS at 71%. Miami have scored in 9 straight. Portland 6-0'd Sporting KC last weekend then 2-2 against Montréal. #MIAvPOR #MLS

Inter Miami vs Portland Timbers Inter Miami: Scored in 9 consecutive games. League-leading 31 goals. Messi: 12 goals + 4 assists, scored and assisted in his last three MLS games. Inter Miami now top of the East after a 5-3 win at Cincinnati midweek. Portland: Phil Neville returns to face the team he coached in their last meeting (May 2022). Unbeaten in 2 (6-0 vs Sporting KC, 2-2 at Montreal). Kevin Kelsy 4 goals in his last 4. But just 1 win in 7 road games this season, and have never earned an away point in Florida. #MIAvPOR #MLS

@JMed0725 Good spot, fixed now

@JoinFinal3rd Miami just lost 3-4 two games ago?

CF Montréal vs Chicago Fire Player Projections Two strikers, two different jobs. Cuypers: MLS top scorer, 12 in 9, projected at 64% to score tonight (1.26 xG). Owusu: 6 goals + 5 assists, "most underrated player in the league" per Chicago's own coverage, 43% to score. The shots leader: Zinckernagel 3.9 projected, also 0.79 xA, the slate's highest creator number. Montréal depth: Carmona 23% (just back from ankle), Jaime 18%, Longstaff with 0.28 xA from midfield. Chicago: Cuypers carries the headline. Zinckernagel pulls the strings. Lod and Haile-Selassie round out the supporting cast. #CHIvMTL #MLS

CF Montréal vs Chicago Fire Match Preview Result probability: Montréal 42%, Draw 34%, Chicago 24%. Total xG: 2.72. xG split: 1.57 vs 1.15. Goal lines: O1.5 76%, O2.5 51%, O3.5 29%. BTTS: 55%. Score 2+: Montréal 46%, Chicago 32%. #CHIvMTL #MLS

CF Montréal vs Chicago Fire Hugo Cuypers is the MLS top scorer. 12 goals in 9 matches. 6 in his last 5. Looking to score in his fourth straight game. Chicago: 4th in the East. Scored in nine consecutive games. Won 5 of last 6 on the road (only one road loss all season). 23 goals scored, joint third-most in MLS. Montréal: 11th in the East but unbeaten at home in their last three (Orlando 2-0, NYCFC 1-0, NYRB 4-1). 2-2 vs Portland last time out. #CHIvMTL #MLS

Chelsea vs Manchester City Player Projections The depth split: City: 4 players above 30% to score (Haaland 68%, Semenyo 36%, O'Reilly 31%, plus midfield depth). Chelsea: 2 (Palmer 41%, Pedro 39%). Haaland is the slate's standout: 1.14 xG, 6.0 shots, 68% to score. The Wembley curse (0 in 8 there, 0 in 9 finals) is the only thing dampening the model's confidence. Doku 0.37 xA, the slate's standout creator. Most goal involvements in the last two FA Cup campaigns. #CHEMCI #EmiratesFACup #FACupFinal

Chelsea vs Manchester City Match Preview City 59%, Draw 23%, Chelsea 18% Total xG: 3.80. xG split: 1.48 vs 2.32. Goal lines: O2.5 73%, O3.5 53%. BTTS: 71%. Score 2+: City 67%, Chelsea 44%. #CHEMCI #EmiratesFACup #FACupFinal

Chelsea vs Manchester City 1,813 days since Chelsea last beat Manchester City. Just two weeks shy of five years. Chelsea: 2 wins in their last 11 competitive games (both FA Cup ties vs lower-league sides). No team has entered an FA Cup final with fewer wins since Newcastle in 1999. Caretaker boss Calum McFarlane in charge. City: Unbeaten in 9, 3+ goals in each of their last 3. 4th consecutive FA Cup final (lost the last two). Pep chasing his fourth Cup at the club. #CHEMCI #EmiratesFACup #FACupFinal

Celtic vs Hearts Player Projections Shankland 38% to score. Maeda 35%. Nygren 31%. Three players above 30% to score in a title decider. Kieran Tierney with 0.18 xA is the key player to watch to get an assist in this matchup. Celtic five players above 14% to score. Hearts three. The depth tilts home, the standout name (Shankland) tilts away. #CELHRT #ScottishPremiership

Celtic vs Hearts Match Preview The title decided on the final day. Celtic 56%, Draw 22%, Hearts 22%. Hearts unbeaten in 3 vs Celtic this season. Won at Celtic Park in December (2-1). Drew at Tynecastle in January (2-2). Last 5 H2H all over 2.5 goals. Celtic six straight league wins. 16 goals in their last 6 under O'Neill. Hearts win the title with a draw. Celtic need to win. The form line meets the season line. #CELHRT #ScottishPremiership

Celtic vs Hearts Final day title decider at Celtic Park. Hearts have led the Scottish Premiership for 250 days this season. Hearts win the title with a draw. Celtic need to win. Hearts: 25/1 pre-season. McInnes' debut campaign. Unbeaten in 7. First non-Old Firm title since 1984-85 on the line. Celtic: 56th title within reach (1 clear of Rangers if they win). Six straight league wins. But winless in three vs Hearts this season. #CELHRT #ScottishPremiership

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Aston Villa vs Liverpool Player Projections Ollie Watkins: 40% to score, 0.53 xG, 3.6 shots projected. The highest scorer probability AND highest xG on the entire fixture. McGinn vs Szoboszlai on the xA leaderboard. McGinn 0.32, Szoboszlai 0.31. Two No.10s setting up almost identical expected assist quality, but McGinn has scored in 3 of his last 5 PL home games. Gakpo leads Liverpool's pack at 28%. Rogers carries Villa's shot volume at 3.6 (joint-highest). #AVLLIV #PremierLeague

Aston Villa vs Liverpool Villa 38%, Draw 37%, Liverpool 25%. Read the gap: the draw is just one point behind the home favourite. The model sees this as essentially a 50/50 between Villa winning and a stalemate. BTTS at 57%, O2.5 at 52%. Liverpool clean sheet probability: 21%. Lowest in this fixture by a clear margin. #AVLLIV #PremierLeague

Aston Villa vs Liverpool Champions League on the line. Both teams on 59 points. Villa: just one win in their last five, but the Europa League final is on Wednesday. Goals at home but only 4 clean sheets all season. Emery managing rotation. Liverpool: won 1 of last 6 on the road. Drew Chelsea 1-1 last out. Salah returns from injury but expected to start on the bench. #AVLLIV #PremierLeague