Jon Kutsmeda | Mortgage Tech Founder

RIP OFF ALERT 🚨 If your lender has their name on an arena, they are overcharging you ... a lot. 💰 Mortgage rates are determined by the mortgage bond market, not banks or lenders. The only difference in what each offer, are the fees they charge on top. @Lend_Zen is fully automated, eliminating the high fees that pay for this 🏟️👇

Mortgage-Treasury spreads tell us how mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are trading versus government bonds. When spreads are low or declining, mortgage rates improve faster and remain stable longer. -- APR 27 -- 𝟭𝟬𝗬: 4.340 𝗟𝗠𝗧𝗦: 0.91 𝗬𝗼𝗬: -51 bps

Read the detailed guide and scoring breakdown in the latest "Weekly Kut" Substack. 👇 weeklykut.com/p/powell-says-…

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗥𝗔𝗧𝗘 𝗟𝗢𝗖𝗞 𝗚𝗨𝗜𝗗𝗘 🔒🏠 higher risk scores = lean towards locking ​ ------------------ Closing Window ------------------ ​ [ 𝟭𝟱 𝗗𝗮𝘆𝘀 ] — 76 🟠 ​ [ 𝟯𝟬 𝗗𝗮𝘆𝘀 ] — 63 🟠 ​ [ 𝟰𝟱 𝗗𝗮𝘆𝘀 ] — 53 🟡 ​ [ 𝟲𝟬 𝗗𝗮𝘆𝘀 ] — 40 🟢

3/3 This is a critical week for mortgage rates as the bond market will be looking for new directional guidance after the post March 27 recovery has lost momentum.

2/3 The events in Iran have been the main market mover since the conflict began. However, this week is possibly the first time in 60 days that economic data will again take center stage. The calendar is packed with inflation data, numerous manufacturing surveys, and home price data.

THE WEEK AHEAD 📅 The Fed rate decision is Wednesday, followed by what will be Jerome Powell’s final press conference as Chairman. It might also be the last of its kind - Fed Chair nominee Warsh has suggested discontinuing the media briefings. 1/3

The +/- shown in the Rate Price Index shows how the pricing of mortgage rates changed. If you received a loan estimate 5 days ago the price of that rate is now approximately 12 bps higher, or $120 more per 100k of loan amount. Learn more in the image below.

Last week’s mortgage rate recap: ​ 𝗖𝗢𝗡𝗩 𝟯𝟬: 5.887 | 𝟱𝗗: +0.062 ​ 𝗨.𝗦. 𝟭𝟬𝗬 𝗦𝗣𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗗: 0.94 | 𝟱𝗗: +0.03 | 𝟭𝟮𝗠: -0.48

@mathewlhunt @Lend_Zen

@Lend_Zen @JonKutsmeda Casual watcher? 🤷‍♂️

Which one are you? • Active shopper 🏠 • Casual watcher 🔍 • Data junkie 📊 The @Lend_Zen Index provides daily, data-driven insights, and real-time mortgage rate pricing. 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗽 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀, 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱𝘀, 𝘀𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆. 👇 lendzen.net/lzi-ss-xLZidx

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@B2Balzer Nice... MBS-Treasury yield spreads have also been tightening again. Hopefully your outlook for Treasuries delivers, because mortgage rates are already tracking the move closely.

@JonKutsmeda Never mind the dollar for now We have zzzzz bondzzzz

Hope emerges for mortgage rates as the bond market fights back...

@B2Balzer Do you conclude lower oil = stronger dollar because less velocity of dollars = dollar scarcity?

@JonKutsmeda Oil keeps heading lower and it is dragging down the dollar and which keeps risk assets elevated Tail wind for yields even tho we got bull flat when bonds bottomed 3/27 My query is when does the flat lift the dollar despite oil falling and normal correlations return ?

@B2Balzer I used to bullseye doom rats in my T-16 back home.

@JonKutsmeda Bull flattener

@B2Balzer 🔥 🤜🤛

@JonKutsmeda Instant follow

Read the detailed guide and scoring breakdown in the latest "Weekly Kut" Substack. weeklykut.com/p/mortgage-rat…

𝗠𝗢𝗥𝗧𝗚𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗥𝗔𝗧𝗘 𝗟𝗢𝗖𝗞 𝗚𝗨𝗜𝗗𝗘 🔒🏠 higher risk scores = lean towards locking ​ ------------------ Closing Window ------------------ ​ [ 𝟭𝟱 𝗗𝗮𝘆𝘀 ] — 72 🟠 ​ [ 𝟯𝟬 𝗗𝗮𝘆𝘀 ] — 59 🟡 ​ [ 𝟰𝟱 𝗗𝗮𝘆𝘀 ] — 49 🟡 ​ [ 𝟲𝟬 𝗗𝗮𝘆𝘀 ] — 38 🟢

A big reason for the improvement in mortgage rates since last year, and in the recent rebound, has been the tightening of mortgage-treasury bond yield spreads.

Mortgage bonds made a strong recovery in April after the beatdown in March took rates back to August levels.