Julien | Tech & Invests

从B200到Feynman，单个AI服务器机架里的功率半导体含量，从1.1万美元涨到19.1万美元，17倍。增长曲线的形态值得注意，B200到GB300阶段还是线性增长，从Rubin开始进入指数区间，Rubin Ultra到Feynman一代就翻了一倍。 GPU单卡功耗从几百瓦走向上千瓦，机柜总功率从几十kW到200kW以上，供电架构从传统48V向800V直流迁移，每一级电压转换都需要更多的功率器件来承接。看Feynman机架的构成，VRM占42%，PSU占26%，IBC占19%。VRM和PSU加起来将近七成，这是英飞凌的核心阵地，DrMOS和Smart Power Stage产品在这个环节的份额很难被撼动。而PSU（26%）和IBC（19%）合计的45%，对应的电压区间在100V到800V，正好落在GaN的甜区。英诺赛科2025年8月跟英伟达达成的800V直流架构合作，着力点就在IBC这一级，用100V GaN做48V到12V的转换，2025年已经实现规模化交付。数据中心内部有精密温控，电压集中在中压段，要的是MHz级开关频率和极致功率密度。GaN能让电感变压器的体积缩小一半以上，对寸土寸金的AI机柜来说这是刚需。SiC的主场在电动车主驱和光伏逆变器那边，高压、大电流、高温，跟数据中心的需求画像完全不同。 第三代半导体两条路线，SiC走车，GaN走算力。英飞凌两头都有布局，英诺赛科All in GaN。每个Feynman机架快20万美元的功率半导体含量，这个数字还没被认真定价过。

This is the footprint ratio of data center to solar panels in the sunniest country in the world. Yeah, I think we're gonna have to go nuclear.

Morgan Stanley has again raised its capex forecasts for the five hyperscalers Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle. It now expects them to spend about $805bn this year, up from a previous estimate of $765bn. For next year, the forecast has been lifted from $951bn to $1.1TRILLION. To put that into perspective, their 2026 spending alone would be roughly equal to what all non-tech companies in the S&P 500 spent combined in 2025. The expected ~$800bn for 2026 is nearly double 2025 levels and about three times what was spent in 2024.