June Bartch

𝗟𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸: 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗔𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗹 𝟭𝟬𝘁𝗵: View it here~> epawaweather.com/long-range-out… Our weekly long range outlook takes a look at the next 5-6 weeks of temps/pattern and precipitation into broken down time periods.

@AlexBerenson This coming from someone who didn’t want war.

This is an absolute strategic disaster. We have effectively given Iran control of what is arguably the most important waterway in the world and we have no way to get it back. Escalation would be very risky. But even if it COULD work, Trump lacks the political capital to put significant numbers of American sailors or troops at risk because he started the war without even informing Congress, much less asking for authorization. It is too late to ask, the Republicans won't vote for it and the Democrats surely won't. Iran fully grasps this dynamic. Trump's escalation threats made matters worse, not better, because they started a clock that Iran ran out. Under the circumstances, we would have been better off just continuing our limited attacks, trying to find an insurgency worth funding, and hoping the Israelis could kill enough mid-level Iranian commanders. But as oil continued to rise, Trump panicked. Now we have a ceasefire that isn't really a ceasefire. Iran gave up nothing.

@epawawx Ok that makes me feel much better! Thank you. Have a great weekend!

@JuneBartch Average temps in May are much higher than that... so slightly lower than this:

Nearer term, we'll have [overall] warmer than average temperatures, even if slightly so from this Friday through about the 23rd of April... then a transition week to cooler over the last full week of this month. We are still maintaining (and reiterating) our May monthly projections to be both cooler than average and wetter than average. How I come up with the long range projections every Friday publicly and twice more during the week privately is proprietary, but there is certainly sufficient support for our May ideas. This has nothing to do what a model says as some think is all we do - which is false... although they also agree with the cooler and wetter May idea. See images 1 and 2 attached. The 3rd image is the tropical forcing projections through the first week of May from the bias-corrected European ensemble... similar to the GEFS-extended progression. In an ENSO neutral (where we are currently) phases 6 and 7 are warmer phases, but 8, 1, and 2 are not. They are cooler phases. Given the lag time to see sensible weather effects, this would imply the tail end of this month through at least the first 2-3 weeks of May are colder than average. Not snow-falling cold, but colder than it should be at that time. It's always relative. 4th image is the stratospheric zonal wind at 10 hPa, which indicates yet another late-season zonal wind reversal, and this SSW has staying power. This supports a high-latitude blocking pattern (-NAO) setting up later this month and maintaining for awhile. This also increases the likelihood of those pesky upper level lows that stall near the region for days on end. A commonplace in Spring around here, but odds increase for a few of those to make May a downer overall. Don't shoot the messenger... surely not what I'd choose. Longer term summer stuff is beyond our 6 week long range lead time purview, but it does appear an El Niño summer is in the cards, and depending how strong that El Niño gets, could mean a cooler 'ish and wetter summer. But a little too early to commit to that now.

Iran chose civilization. Trump gambled on it — and won the first round. Netanyahu and Graham aren't happy. That tells you everything.

@Tripletplanner @AlexBerenson I’m sorry you feel that way. Have a great week!

@JuneBartch @AlexBerenson Hit a nerve? You are simply a nasty person. Some would say deplorable.

OMG the MAGA cope tonight is worse than anytime since November 2020, and for exactly the same reason, they just will never admit a loss

@glennbeck I agree with you. We are living in this country now I don’t even recognize

There's only one thing that could actually stop us from beating Iran: the fracturing of the American people. I understand not wanting war. However, we're in one right now. So, I'd prefer to win. Sadly, it seems like a lot of Americans would rather Iran win. And some even seem to agree with the religious zealots in Iran who wake up every day and pray for the destruction of the West. This is LUNACY.

@POTUS I’m just a citizen but after what Gen Kein said this morning I totally agree with him. Strait not opened now. Saudi Arabia oil pipeline the only pipe to get their oil through since strait is closed. I think you made a very big big mistake. Iran will never stop.

@FmrRepMTG x.com/treyyingst/sta…

Israel never stopped bombing, especially Lebanon. So was there ever really a ceasefire? Trump, “the peace President”, should have never started this war alongside Israel, who clearly doesn’t want peace.

@Tripletplanner @AlexBerenson Well you said it so how you do you know show your receipts. I guess I hit a nerve.

@JuneBartch @AlexBerenson Proven how? In court? Not even close.

@FmrRepMTG Really it was Iran that kept bombing we seen it on TV by Trey at Fox News. Your ignorance is dispicable

Wow, Summer Lee (@RepSummerLee) said: “I remember the days after October 7th, there were very few of us taking that stance.” Now it makes sense why Lee refused to disavow Hasan Piker (@hasanthehun) saying America deserved 9/11. House Democrats are literal supporters of Islamic terrorism.

@MOSSADil Good

🇮🇱 Israel continues strikes in Iran despite ceasefire announcement, per security official. Iran has launched multiple ballistic missile salvos at Israel since the supposed start of the ceasefire. No indication Israel has halted operations against Hezbollah terrorists, despite claims the deal would include Lebanon. Stay connected, follow @MOSSADil.

@Ilhan You’re going to jail girly. It’s just a matter of time before your ass is deported right out of here.

Donald Trump must be removed from office for threatening war crimes and genocide. Speaker Johnson: bring the House back into session. Invoking the 25th Amendment and impeachment must be on the table, but Congress should also move on a War Powers resolution to stop Trump.

@MOSSADil I hope Israel is bombing back

🚨 ALERT: Sirens expected to sound again in southern and central Israel as Iran launches another ballistic missile attack. The IDF has detected a new launch, with alerts likely to be activated in the coming minutes as the ongoing barrage continues. Stay connected, follow @MOSSADil.

@POTUS WHAT CEASEFIRE?

Sirens sounding across southern Israel amid new incoming fire.

@IanCarrollShow @JustJenRX That’s a complete lie. Show the receipts to prove your statement. Uneducated imbecile

@JustJenRX First off- Mossad and CIA were inciting and arming the protests- they were literally a foreign attack on Iran. Second- why tf does America care about protests in another country halfway around the world?

Here’s what the Islamic Regime was doing to peaceful protesters in Iran before our President said ENOUGH.