Junhee
11 posts
特朗普称协议已基本谈判完成，2天前提醒了不要做空
刚刚，特朗普宣布将“很快”宣布与伊朗谈判的协议, 霍尔木兹海峡将被开放；
$BTC ，黄金，美股期货开始上涨；
2天前，提醒了大家，反指散户在看空，让大家不要做空；
6月10日CPI数据日、6月11日 SpaceX IPO和6月17日的美联储会议，这些重大数据或事件才有机会推动美股转折；
还是按原计划， $SPX 7500-7700，分批止盈。
Trump says the deal is almost done — and two days ago I already warned everyone not to short the market.
Just now, Trump announced that an agreement with Iran will be announced “very soon,” and that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened.
$BTC, gold, and SPX futures are all moving higher.
Two days ago, I pointed out that retail traders had become a contrarian bearish signal, and warned everyone not to short.
Major data/events such as the June 10 CPI release, the June 11 SpaceX IPO, and the June 17 Fed meeting are more likely to become the catalysts for a market turning point.
So I’m sticking with the original plan: gradually take profits as $SPX moves into the 7,500–7,700 range.
Lord William｜UK@LordWilliamUK
粉丝问美股会大回调吗？从散户和机构情绪和动作可见端倪 刚出炉的AAII数据显示，散户看空比例大幅上升到43.6%，净看多比例已下降到-11.9%； 很多散户在踏空或卖飞后，开始做空； 另外，高盛的信息，对冲基金对美国股票宏观产品、指数及交易所交易基金的空头头寸现已升至10年来最高水平； 结合目前市场参与度在中位，英伟达财报没有sell the news； 个人判断，在6月10日CPI数据日、6月11日 SpaceX IPO和6月17日的美联储会议前，美股不看大跌； 罗素2000形态看涨，6月10日前，可考虑逢低买入动能股。 Followers are asking me whether $SPX will see a major correction — clues can be found in both retail and institutional sentiment and positioning. The latest AAII data shows that the percentage of bearish retail investors has jumped sharply to 43.6%, while the net bullish reading has fallen to -11.9%. Many retail traders, after missing the rally or selling too early, have now started shorting the market. Meanwhile, according to Goldman Sachs, hedge funds’ short positions in U.S. equity macro products, indices, and ETFs have risen to the highest level in 10 years. Combined with current market participation still being around neutral levels, and Nvidia earnings not triggering a “sell the news” reaction, My view is that before the June 10 CPI release, the June 11 SpaceX IPO, and the June 17 Fed meeting, I don’t expect a major selloff in U.S. equities. The $IWM chart structure also looks bullish. Before June 10, buying momentum stocks on dips could be worth considering.
中文
美股气势如虹， $EWY 盈利超50%， $TSLA 盈利超20%！
3月买入的 $SPY $EWY $TSLA 盈利丰厚，当时标普指数6500，市场无人问津；
今天 $SPX 突破了7500，和我们的年度目标位7600很近了，按计划分批止盈；
目前散户情绪还不够高涨，不少在浮亏加空；
美股CTA以外的多类机构目前仓位中高，还没有超配；
所以，还不适合做空；
有仓位的分批止盈，没仓位的耐心等待回调。
按历史，每届美联储新主席就职后，回调会到来。
U.S. stocks are on fire — $EWY is up more than 50%, and $TSLA is up over 20%!
The $SPY, $EWY, and $TSLA positions we bought in March have delivered huge gains. Back then, the S&P was around 6,500 and nobody cared about the market.
Today, $SPX has broken above 7,500 and is getting very close to our annual target of 7,600, so we’re taking profits gradually according to plan.
Retail sentiment still isn’t euphoric enough yet — many are still underwater and adding shorts.
Outside of CTAs, many institutional investors are currently at medium-to-high positioning levels, but they are not yet fully overweight equities.
So it’s still not the right time to short the market.
If you already have positions, take profits gradually. If you don’t, patiently wait for a pullback.
Historically, after every new Fed chair takes office, a correction tends to follow.
Lord William｜UK@LordWilliamUK
懂王：我们考虑收尾，我们又赢了！ 再信懂王一次！ 652 买了 $SPY 126.8 买了 $EWY 369 买了 $TSLA Trump: we’re considering winding down — we’ve won again! Let’s trust him one more time! Bought: $SPY at 652 $EWY at 126.8 $TSLA at 369
中文
5天前推荐的 $DRAM 盈利25%， $ARM 盈利17%
$SPX 进一步逼近我年初给出的26年度目标位，7600
5天前，很多人看每股大盘涨的很不爽，纷纷开始做空；
我在Clubhouse和X都明确告诉大家，不要做空，希望你听进去了；
当时推荐的标的 $DRAM 盈利了25%， $ARM 盈利了17%；
目前止盈了部分；
$SPX 7300-7600是我分批止盈的区域，有特朗普在，不要担心没有大波动。
$DRAM is up 25% and $ARM is up 17% since I recommended them five days ago.
$SPX is moving even closer to my 2026 target range of 7,600 that I outlined at the beginning of the year.
Five days ago, many people were frustrated with how strong the U.S. market looked and started aggressively shorting.
I clearly told everyone on both Clubhouse and X not to short the market — hopefully you listened.
The tickers I recommended at the time, $DRAM and $ARM, are now up 25% and 17% respectively.
I’ve taken partial profits for now.
The 7,300–7,600 range on $SPX is where I plan to gradually take profits. And with Trump around, don’t worry — there will never be a shortage of big volatility swings.
Lord William｜UK@LordWilliamUK
炒个美股每天活在上涨的恐惧中，Sell in the May？ 从我们3月31日，抄到这波美股回调大底以来， $SPX 指数一个月已经涨了近15%，涨的让人心惊胆战； 2026年初，我提出的SPX年度目标位7600，也在逐步逼近； 这波上涨的驱动力，来自于消息面转折，然后CTA等机构空头回补，然后是CTA右侧追涨，然后是共同基金被迫加仓，然后是散户FOMO，一路向北； 这两天5大科技巨头的财报和展望也很亮眼，我们持仓的 $GOOG $AMZN 涨的让人舒适； 目前市场情绪中高，参与度中高，VIX还有下行空间，SPX和纳指的PE没有见顶，技术面也没有见顶信号； 所以， 1.不建议做空，虽然有“Sell in the May and go way”的古老说法； 2.大科技纷纷加码Capex，AI浪潮还在继续，市场动能在：存储、CPU、光模块、封测、电力等板块； 3.如果标普回踩7050-6900，可以加仓； 4.如果美伊谈判利好，推动大盘继续上攻，7250-7600，我会分批止盈到清仓，因为年度目标达成了。 $AMKR $ARM $COHR $DRAM Feels like living in fear of further upside $SPX — “Sell in May”? Since we bought the bottom of this pullback on March 31, the $SPX has already rallied nearly 15% in just one month — the pace is almost unsettling. This rally was driven first by a shift in the news flow, then CTA short covering, followed by CTA trend-chasing on the right side, then mutual funds being forced to add exposure, and finally retail FOMO — pushing the market higher all the way. Over the past couple of days, the Big Tech earnings and outlooks have also been strong. Our holdings in $GOOG and $AMZN have performed very nicely. Right now, sentiment is moderately high, participation is also moderately high, the VIX still has room to move lower, and technically there are no clear topping signals yet. So: I don’t recommend shorting, despite the old saying “Sell in May and go away”; Big Tech continues to ramp up CapEx, the AI wave is still in full swing, and market momentum is concentrated in sectors like memory, CPUs, optical modules, packaging & testing, and power infrastructure; If $SPX pulls back to the 7,050–6,900 range, I’ll look to add positions; If positive developments in U.S.–Iran talks push the market higher, into the 7,250–7,600 range, I’ll scale out to a full exit, as my annual targets will have been met.
中文
也是有道理的。不过我觉得是刚刚开始，虽然短期不排除有反弹。原因是，这个时候正好是Warsh的“不再为融资链无限提供流动性”的预期，Nvidia和OpenAI的裂痕，以及OpenClaw驱动的AI token需求大爆炸三件事撞在一起。这个威力堪比宇宙大爆炸。我认为未来1-2个月市场的主旋律就是抛售，因为这三件事，没有一件事是能很快证伪/可逆的，都属于硬约束。不排除今晚/明晚AMD/GOOG财报后会有反弹。
mooyo@CodeToRun
@Areskapitalon 不敢继续空了跑了，全现金等抄底。目标nvda 170
中文
Many people struggle with Apple $AAPL lately as it's been within this very narrow range consolidating for two weeks.... BUT as I have shared with you all days ago, it's brewing for a powerful inverted H&S b/o on daily chart.... it's up 2%+ today with MACD golden cross....
The moment Trump tweets about China deal almost done, Apple could run 5% or 10 pts up easily.....
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