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@a1fantasy23 hit a huge parlay last game off of your last read !!! hopefully i can go 2/2 form these breakdowns!
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OKC vs IND Game 2 NBA Finals Breakdown 🧠🏆
125 ❤️s for a lotto on this game TONIGHT!
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander said it best: "The Pacers teach you that it's a 48-minute game more than anyone in the NBA." Once again, a 15 point deficit in the 4Q and Indiana comes back with Tyrese Haliburton sealing the deal in the final moments, their 5th comeback of the playoffs.
But, OKC isn't new to this type of heartbreak. Game 1 vs Denver, we saw Aaron Gordon do the exact same thing to steal it away with a 3P game winner. What matters is: their response. That time around, a 43 point blowout win at home. How can they repeat that in the Finals? Let's get into our main points:
1) SGA vs the Indiana defense. 38 points in the NBA is never easy, but when you're as good as Shai and get 30 shots with pure single coverage, it's to be expected. The problem with 38 points: that's exactly what Indiana wants. No other Thunder player besides Lu Dort could find rhythm and at home when your role players are the best, the Thunder NEED other guys to get going. Indiana ran a few different coverages, but overall helped on 77% of Shai's drives in this game. One defense to primarily note: the "next" coverage (will add a clip in the comments). Essentially they would abandon the same wing on screens to help counter Shai getting downhill and the on-ball defender (normally Nembhard) would have to get back to cover that guy on the wing. This opens up passing though and creates deferral opportunities to guys like Jalen Williams that Shai passed up a ton to try to get to the rim. And while a majority of his struggles came on relatively open looks, better shots can be had and I would expect an emphasis from Shai here to get his teammates going, especially Dub and Holmgren. The most interesting part as well: Jalen Brunson and Donovan Mitchell both had their best assist game in G2 vs IND as well (11 and 9 respectively). Shai should be able to break this defense down on film and be better to give OKC his 30 bomb, but also production from his teammates. Had 3 assists on 11 potentials, love o6.5 in a crucial G2 bounceback.
2) So what OKC role players step up though? Luguentz Dort & Alex Caruso. First off, expect an increase in 3PA for JDub, a little indifferent on the volume for o1.5 3PM, but do think the opportunity COULD be there as aforementioned. However, at the 2, love the spot for Dort and Caruso. Lu is consistently guarded by Siakam and Obi who help on Shai's drives backside to prevent him from getting to the rim and force him to settle in the mid-range. The result: Lu wide open for 3. Had 9 3PA last game even with the Shai's 30 FGA with all nine being categorized as open or wide open. We also know Lu Dort's home splits: 43.6% at home compared to 32.3% from 3 on the road this seaspon. HIs efficiency jumps like crazy and he's now had 3+ 3PM in every matchup vs the Pacers this season. Like him to keep it going. In a similar manner, Caruso is a lock for 25+ minutes albeit foul trouble in this MU, over 8.5 points in 11/14 with 22+ minute this playoffs. He also sees open 3s from similar coverages, brings up the ball at times which leads to open drives, and also has some openings from his dunker's spot positioning to get offensive rebounds.
3) The rebounding/turnover battle. It's extremely key to note that IND in the 1H: 19 turnovers. In the 2H, just 5 - they made the changes needed to clean up their act. And when you're OKC, how do you lose a game with 18 less turnovers than your opponent? By not capitalizing on them (just 11 points off turnovers) and losing the rebound battle by 17 . Indiana with 56 rebounds in G1 compared to OKC's 39. Once IND fixed the turnover issues, OKC's small ball lineup started to become a problem in the 2H and got exposed on the glass in which indiana took advantage of 50/50 balls and 2nd chance points. One sneaky beneficary as well: Andrew Nembhard assists. Had a ton of his converted potentials coming off offensive rebounds, pass outs, not stuff as sustainable as you'd like so be careful with him there.
Gotta expect one of Chet/IHart to be on the court at all times now (for the most part), and I hate that their ceilings are limited by the lack of desire for a double big lineup even though that could change this game. Again, the theme kinda sticks, but I expect OKC to be BETTER and I don't expect the same type of rebounding advantage for Indiana as well which hurts their upside heavily and overall makes me extremely scared to touch their props here. Further into this on the next point.
4) How crucial is Chet Holmgren? If you remember Game 1 vs Denver, Chet Holmgren played horrible. But after that game, he vowed to be better and was a driving force into that series victory on the glass and the defensive end. Once again, he faces the same dilemma, posting just 6 points and 6 reb on 2/9 shooting and honestly playing soft defensively. OKC NEEDS more out of him and he has to be patient on the offensive end knowing that IND has one goal in mind: take away the paint. For OKC to be better defensively, stopping the open 3s is also key. That's normally their ideology, but IND has been way too good on these looks and that's going to require better rotations, but also a trust in Chet Holmgren to win the one on one battle inside the paint. Chet himself believed "he could've slowed down" and I think in a must-win spot, we're gonna see the best out of him. Loved his rebounding positioning, so if those minutes do come to fruition, o8.5 rebounds should be a great spot for the near future.
5) How truly likely is a blowout really? When betting props in the NBA, blowouts are always in the back of everyone's mind, ESPECIALLY when the underdog just stole a game. Like we saw with Denver's 43 point loss, OKC likes to come for vengence and they largely agree with one another that they gave up what should've been theirs rather than having it fully taken (if that makes sense to you). And Indiana has lost one game in each series by a blowout fashion (15+ points) -- albeit none of them have been prior to Game 3. Have a hard time figuring out my stance with this one because after the 1Q, Indiana was really on par with OKC even BEFORE the comeback (0 pt differential in 2Q/3Q). Plus, this team has the most magnet ball shooting I have ever seen in my life. However, with all of that being said, I'm high enough on this OKC team where I will say, at home, I don't see another 39% shooting performance where they get killed on the glass and Dub/Chet struggle once again. They made so many mistakes that are fixable that I like the Thunder to maybe not win this by 20-25+ but make a lasting mark on Indiana to remind everyone how good they truly are.
Summary:
- Shai's offensive game should have more of a balance this time around, expect the scoring, but also with more passing.
- OKC's role players have the opportunity to step up at home - namely Caruso and Dort.
- Indiana's rebounding and shooting killed OKC's advantage with turnovers - expect less small ball and more capitlization/urgency from the Thunder.
- Chet Holmgren HAS to be at his best for OKC to win.
- A blowout is very well on the cards in Game 2, but less compared to every prior OKC opponent I'd say.
Hoping for a good one, has been an amazing last month and a half for NBA betting. Cheers to me saying the same when we head into Game 3 🍻
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@Juuicidal @KAMlFYS He’s trolling bro 😭 we were sat in call when bro told us he’s gonna post the edits and see who gets mad
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officially juisexual lmao
le farhan de wall street@NiqueLaCaf
@Juuicidal coming out as juisexual
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@s_halftone @bazmeggeci if ur talking abt getting clients, then this will not help u at all, ppl will look at the craft than your rig lol
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@s_halftone and im assuming ur not gna be doing any heavy duty shit jus like short film stuff so u don't need that fan in the fx30, so 0 point. and if u didn't have a e mount apsc lens then there are a lot of other choices.
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