K33 Research

FTX to redistribute $2.2bn to creditors. Lazarus hacks Bitrefill, and the Senate Banking Committee eyes a vote on a crypto market structure bill by the end of April. In trending topics we cover SEC’s approval of Nasdaq’s tokenized equity pilot. k33.com/research/artic…

Bitcoin tests key resistance after a buoyant week. Perp traders maintain a defensive bias despite the rally, improving odds for continuation. The recent strength is likely led by Strategy purchasing a massive 40k BTC over the past two weeks. k33.com/research/artic…

U.S. Banking Lobbies push back on the OCC granting national trust bank charters to crypto firms. Mastercard launches a crypto partner program. In trending topics, we cover the increased scrutiny on Binance and Binance’s pushback following the war in Iran k33.com/research/artic…

Traders are paying substantial premiums for the privilege of shorting bitcoin, and they have been doing this for quite some time. Chart 1: Mar 11 recorded the 7th lowest annualized daily funding rate since Jan 1, 2023. Mar 12 recorded the 11th lowest. Chart 2: Weekly funding rates have returned to deep negative levels. Chart 3: Even the 30-day average has been negative for 14 consecutive days, the longest streak since December 2022. Chart 4: BTC vs. 30-day average funding rate.

Bitcoin holds near $70K after a strong week despite the war in Iran. Bearish positioning, persistently negative funding, and low CME engagement point to defensive sentiment but also an attractive risk reward setup for BTC. k33.com/research/artic…

Kraken has received Fed master account approval, and additional approvals are expected. ICE invests in OKX. In trending topics, we cover the progress of Morgan Stanley’s crypto initiative, discussing how banks position for long-term crypto growth. k33.com/research/artic…

Amid the war in Iran BTC and oil is green while most assets are red. Positioning remains heavily defensive and BTC sits near historic oversold levels. We believe the current risk-reward favors accumulation and view BTC as a strong buy in its current range k33.com/research/artic…

Meta plans to integrate stablecoin payments, while Block slashes 40% of its workforce. In trending topics, we cover Jane Street, which has been sued by Terraforms, and add our few sats to the ongoing SoMe discussions about market manipulation. k33.com/research/artic…

Another week, another drawdown. Defensive positions dominate, skews have returned to early-February highs, and funding rates remain compressed. We find BTC very attractive at current levels, with weekly RSIs approaching all-time lows. k33.com/research/artic…

CME to launch 24/7 crypto futures on May 29, whereas Goldman Sachs CEO reveals a small BTC investment. In trending topics we cover the latest 13F disclosures, finding that institutional investors reduced exposure by 9,991 BTC in Q4. k33.com/research/artic…

BTC has gone quiet after the crash: spot volumes are down 59%, longs are exiting, ETF holdings have seen a record drawdown, and Fear & Greed hit 5. Our regime model echoes late-2022 lows, and point to a long $60–75k grind ahead. k33.com/research/artic…

BlockFills suspends withdrawals, echoing moves last seen in the 2022 bear market, while Bithumb accidentally sends thousands of BTC in a giveaway. In trending topics, we cover the Federal Reserve’s skinny master account initiative. k33.com/research/artic…

BTC sees second straight double-digit weekly drop, but a rare cluster of extreme outliers points to a high-probability bottom. With indicators at depths of 2018, 2020 and 2022 lows, we brace for stagnant consolidation in the $60k–$75k range. k33.com/research/artic…

Price action outshines any headline from the past week, with BTC posting its worst 14d return since June 2022, hitting lows not seen since 2024. MSTR claims it can withstand BTC at $8k for 5 years, while an UAE acquisition of WLFI sparks scrutiny. k33.com/research/artic…

Bitcoin is testing a critical support zone near $74,000. Can it hold, and how might markets respond if it breaks? And is the four-year cycle repeating again, despite our clear view of its irrelevancy? k33.com/research/artic…

Trump just announced Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. The White House will host a summit next week with banking and crypto leaders to discuss the Clarity Act. In trending topics, we update on NBIM’s rapidly growing indirect BTC exposure. Full pdf 👇 assets.ctfassets.net/i0qyt2j9snzb/6…

Bitcoin slid back to the yearly open after tariff-driven turmoil and failed to rebound as stocks recovered. ETF outflows, weak derivatives activity, and gold’s rally highlight crypto’s persistent underperformance amid macro uncertainty. k33.com/research/artic…

The Senate Agriculture Committee has released its crypto market structure bill, which Trump hopes to sign soon, per WEF remarks. Meanwhile, data suggests increased crypto usage in Iran under sanctions. We also examine NYSE’s 24/7 tokenized equities plan. k33.com/research/artic…

New tariffs ignite another sell-off. BTC futures yields have collapsed to April 2025 lows, and a sharp intraday rise in perp OI sets the stage for a volatile Tuesday after a hectic long weekend. k33.com/research/artic…