kanika sethi

I bet this posts about $PLTR gets some love. 🤣 I think $PLTR is in a wave 4 down a huge incomplete 5 wave bullish impulsemove that started in 2023. I think this bump higher is going to lose steam around that top level $181.84 of course w/highs and lows in between. Then we'll continue our descent down. In my thesis, we should get to at least $110.90 -> $87.94. It is entirely doubtful that we see that $72.66 level but it is possible. Our big huge 5th wave will then top out somewhere in the $336 range possibly after and then oh boy get out of the way bc it's going to be ugly headed down to correct this multi-year move. A move above $195 or below $67 will invalidate my wave counts. The top diagonal in pink will act as resistance throughout the move. And, the bottom green as a floor of support. $PLTR $PLTU

$PLTR Palantir reports earnings on Monday, May 4th after hours. The results are going to turn heads. Here is what I expect and am looking for. 🟢 Revenue: $1.64b (vs analyst expectations of 1.542b), 82% Y/Y growth. 🟢 EPS: 29c (vs 28c analysts) 🟢 NDR: 145% 🟢 $875m FCF REVENUE + GROWTH While 82% Y/Y growth may seem insane to project (and it is absolutely shocking at this size), the reality is that analysts have Palantir pegged for 75% growth. The reason for this confidence? An incredible number of deals that landed in Q4, accelerating the short and long-term RPO of Palantir. They're now at $1.62b short-term RPO, a figure which does not include contracts with an initial term under 12 months, obligations further than 12 months, most government deals, and anything that includes a cancellation clause. While this acceleration won't all fall in Q1, it's clear that the extreme growth levels of Palantir aren't abating any time soon. The Net Dollar Retention rate in this scenario looks to be around 145%, give or take, which is above the level (120%) considered elite for SaaS. With the benefit of FCF and a cancelled buyback program, Palantir will have over $8b in cash after Q1. A WEAKNESS RESOLVED Over the next 2 quarters, it looks like Palantir will have shored up its only weakness: international growth, which has been lackluster. Dave Glazer (CFO) stated that in the 4th quarter, Palantir closed $1.3b of international commercial TCV bookings. While international revenue has accelerated back to double digits over the past 2 quarters, this pales in comparison to US commercial (81.8% Y/Y) and US government (60.3% Y/Y) growth. Palantir landed other significant international expansions, including one with HD Hyundai across their entire enterprise worth "hundreds of millions" over several years. While I don't expect international to necessarily climb to those levels, seeing it above 20% over the next two quarters helps, even as the comps on the US side become more difficult later this year. GUIDANCE AND TURMOIL Palantir has an incredibly resilient business model, benefitting from times of macro stress and turmoil, and also from times of stability. Q1 certainly was no exception, with Palantir-supported Maven becoming an official Program of Record (and expanding internationally to the Czech Republic). They also landed two other significant US govt contracts worth up to $1b each in the quarter, while Airbus expanded their contract, which is rumored to be $1b over 10 years. This is in addition to around 20 other partnerships and extensions noted, which only captures a part of the acceleration. The point? Palantir is certainly not done growing, and it's not even finished accelerating. I believe Palantir will not only raise guidance, but guide for close to 80% revenue growth next quarter, which is a far step above where analysts have the firm positioned. This sets them up for around $1b in FCF in Q2. FINAL THOUGHTS The next two quarters will put to death the myth that Palantir cannot expand internationally, see them near $10b in the bank with no debt, and positioned incredibly well to continue disruption. While I usually say I don't expect the stock to move much, this quarter I believe there's a strong chance of a violent upward move. As such, I will be hesitant to sell any covered calls on the stock for earnings.