Kyrylo Shevchenko

1/3 In the face of unprecedented adversity in 2022, Ukraine's banking system stood resilient against the storm of a full-scale Russian invasion. Under my stewardship at @NBUkraine, we became Ukraine's financial shield. Here is what we did: 👇

⚡️⚡️⚡️BREAKING: Two non-Iranian supertankers exited the #StraitOfHormuz yesterday — the first time in a week that 4 million barrels of unsanctioned crude flowed through the world’s most critical oil chokepoint. Singapore-linked Eagle Veracruz and Greek Nissos Keros carried Saudi and UAE oil as five vessels crossed both ways. Despite the brief surge, flows remain volatile and grouped, often followed by sharp drops. With global markets watching every barrel, this highlights how fragile energy security remains in the region. US Central Command denied any naval escort support for commercial traffic. Oil markets can breathe for a day — but the risk premium is never far away. #EnergyMarkets #EnergyCrisis

China’s hidden oil reserves are the silent buffer keeping crude prices from exploding higher amid the Iran conflict. Imports plunged from 11.5M bpd in Feb to <7M in May as Beijing taps massive stockpiles (est. 1.4B barrels). Big thanks to market analyst @Rory_Johnston for the sharp insights driving this piece. What happens when the Chinese reserve runs low?

⚡#IMF Mission Back in Kyiv – But This Review Won’t Be Easy. @IMFNews team just arrived for the first review of 🇺🇦 $8.1B EFF program. Yesterday Ukraine’s parliament failed to pass the key law on taxing international parcels. ❌ But parcels aren’t the only hurdle👇 🔹 SOE governance reforms (especially #Energoatom after its major corruption scandal) 🔹 Appointment of permanent Customs head 🔹 NEURC external assessment 🔹 Several tax/customs digitalization steps 🔹 State bank supervisory board nominations Structural benchmarks are slipping, political crisis is deepening, & the war economy keeps bleeding. Truth is: no tranche, no matter how big, fixes the root problem. War financing can’t replace war-ending strategy. Tough talks are ahead. #UkraineEconomy

‼️🇩🇪 While #MiddleEast burns, Germany’s domestic tourism is booming. Fears of jet fuel shortages & Gulf instability are driving Germans away from long-haul flights straight to the North & Baltic Sea coasts. Berlin now expects the domestic tourism sector to generate over €425B in 2026 - that’s an increase of several billion euros compared to last year’s record €422B. Comparison: Domestic market is 3–4× larger than outbound spending. Every redirected euro stays inside Germany, boosting local jobs, hotels & transport instead of airlines & foreign operators. Pure economic win for Berlin in a chaotic summer. Photo: @derspiegel

⚡🇺🇦 Ukraine’s #GrainExports just took a heavy blow. Total shipments in 2025/26 fell 📉 14% vs last season. Barley was hit hardest - down❗36%. War-damaged ports, constant blackouts, labor shortages, mined fields & sky-high logistics costs are crushing 🇺🇦 breadbasket. Yet farmers are fighting back - they’ve already sown ~95% of planned spring grains this season. Pressure on exports will continue into next year. Global buyers in Africa, Middle East & Europe should brace for tighter supplies & higher prices. War is rewriting the world food trade map. #GlobalEconomy

⚡️The US has given preliminary approval for Polish defense companies to manufacture PAC-3 MSE Patriot missiles domestically, with each missile valued at around $4 million. This deal brings thousands of high-tech jobs, massive technology transfer, and billions in new revenue as Poland builds its own production lines on the Vistula. Instead of importing everything, Polish factories will now supply components, maintenance, and complete missiles — strengthening the entire national defense industry for decades. Warsaw is already operating two Patriot batteries and expecting six more, while positioning itself as a key NATO supplier. American interest in expanding output from 700 to 2,000 missiles per year creates a perfect partnership: Poland gains industrial power, export potential, and long-term economic growth, while helping meet surging allied demand.

⚡️India just slashed its oil demand growth forecast by 40%, cutting 2026 refined products growth from 128 kbd to just 77 kbd as the Hormuz crisis slams the world’s fastest-growing major economy. Crude prices are $30/bbl higher than before the Iran war, the rupee is weaker, and pump prices have jumped ₹7.5/litre for petrol and diesel. With India importing 85% of its crude, every dollar counts, triggering a real austerity push: the government is urging carpooling, work-from-home, and public transport, while PM Modi is asking citizens to postpone overseas travel and gold purchases for a year, gold import duties have been hiked from 6% to 15%, and FX reserves have fallen from $728B to $691B in just six weeks. India is managing a balance-of-payments crisis it didn’t start, rerouting 70% of crude imports outside Hormuz (up from 55%), sourcing from over 40 countries with Russia ❗️❗️still over a third of the total, though longer routes bring higher freight costs. Modi is accelerating energy independence with a $100B domestic exploration target by 2030 and opening nearly 1 million sq km of offshore zones, but that’s a 2030 story—right now, the world’s most important oil demand growth engine is paying the price for a closed Hormuz.

🇷🇺 Russia just suspended sales of several Armenian cognacs and wines — including Vedi Alco dry white, Armenian Cognac 5 Stars, and Shakhnazaryan XO — citing “failure to meet mandatory requirements.” This is the latest in a string of trade curbs hitting Yerevan (after Jermuk water and flower imports) as relations sour over Armenia’s EU bid, Zelensky visit, and ICC recognition.

❗📈 🇬🇧 @RollsRoyce shares have surged over‼️1,000% since early 2023 under CEO @TufanErginbilgi - one of Europe’s most spectacular industrial turnarounds. This British aerospace & defence giant (maker of jet engines for Airbus & Boeing) was a pandemic-crippled “burning platform” with heavy losses. The new CEO slashed costs, sold loss-making units, & refocused on high-margin engines + aftermarket services, per @business. 2025 underlying operating profit reached ‼️$4.7B, record orders, net cash position, and major share buybacks announced. In a struggling 🇪🇺 industry, this is pure inspiration: ruthless efficiency meets world-class engineering. #BritishEngineering #RecordProfits

📊 The ghost of stagflation is hanging over Europe. ECB is set to raise its eurozone inflation forecast as prices climb toward 3%. The regulator plans to revise its March projections amid economic uncertainty, but is holding off on new forecasts for now. #ECB #Eurozone #Inflation

🤝🇦🇹 🇦🇪 While much of Europe embraces protectionism, #Austria is doubling down on openness by forging deeper ties with #UAE. The two countries just launched a new High-Level Economic Dialogue on the back of 50 years of partnership, with non-oil trade surging to ‼️$2.1B in 2025 - up 📈 87% since 2019, per @gulftoday. This alliance pairs Austria’s world-class engineering, #GreenTech & precision manufacturing with 🇦🇪 strategic location as a global trade hub & gateway to Asia & Africa. For both nations, it accelerates diversification: the UAE gains cutting-edge 🇪🇺 innovation for its post-oil economy, while Austria secures new growth markets & energy transition expertise beyond a slowing EU. A pragmatic, future-focused partnership that proves smart hedging beats isolation - even in turbulent times. #GlobalEconomy

⚡️Ukraine’s strikes have targeted dozens of Russian refineries since 2024, with peaks knocking out ~15-20% ‼️of capacity temporarily (e.g., up to ~1M bpd offline at times, refining runs dropping to ~4.9-5.1M bpd vs normal ~5.3-5.5M). Russia has offset much of this via spare/idle capacity and repairs often within weeks, keeping annual throughput declines modest (~3% in some periods) and crude exports relatively steady while product exports dipped.

🚨 Argentina just broke ground on the $1.3B San Matías Pipeline — 471 km of 36-inch steel running from Vaca Muerta’s Tratayén hub to the Río Negro coast. This monster will move 27-28 million cubic meters per day, enough to feed two FLNG vessels producing 6 mtpa of LNG with Hilli Episeyo starting 2027 and MKII arriving 2028, delivering Argentina’s first Atlantic LNG exports. Backed by YPF, PAE, Pampa, Harbour and Golar, it finally unlocks Vaca Muerta’s 27 billion barrels of recoverable shale for global markets. This is the infrastructure play that changes everything. 🇦🇷🔥@jackprandelli

⚡️A bombshell corruption scandal is rocking Ukraine’s inner circle - and it couldn’t come at a more critical moment. Huge thanks to @zeitonline team for this masterful, deeply-sourced investigation into “Operation Midas.” Their work is exactly the rigorous journalism Ukraine needs right now. Key points: * Ex-Energy Minister Halushchenko & diamond dealer Timur Mindych (former Zelenskyy business partner) allegedly ran a kickback scheme at Enerhoatom worth ‼️$112M. * Protection rackets on war-critical infrastructure contracts while Russians bombed power plants. * Money allegedly laundered via Caribbean shells to Swiss accounts funding elite schooling. * Andriy Yermak - Zelenskyy’s closest aide - now under investigation & out on bail. * #NABU gathered over 1,000 hours of secret recordings (“Midas tapes”) that captured the suspects’ conversations. 🇺🇦National Bank Governor Andriy Pyshnyi is also mentioned in the published tapes in connection with the broader network. This isn’t just another corruption case. It’s a stress test for 🇺🇦 #EU future. 🇪🇺 has made rule of law & anti-corruption non-negotiable. If Kyiv demonstrates real independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU), transparent prosecutions, and genuine elite accountability - even when it hurts the President’s circle - this could actually accelerate accession talks by proving maturity. If it looks like protection or selective justice, it will hand Moscow propaganda wins & give Brussels hawks every reason to slow-walk negotiations.⚖️ The next few months will show whether Ukraine is serious about breaking the post-Soviet kleptocratic patterns or just managing optics. This is how nations earn trust - or lose it. Photo: @zeitonline

⚡️⚡️⚡️BREAKING: Syzran Refinery in Russia has halted operations after Ukrainian drone strikes and could remain offline for over a month. The critical crude distillation unit, responsible for more than 70% of the plant’s capacity, was completely knocked out. Located 800 km from Ukrainian-controlled territory, the facility has a nominal capacity of 8.5 million tons per year (170,000 barrels per day). In 2024 alone it processed 4.3 million tons of oil, yielding 1.5 million tons of diesel, 800,000 tons of gasoline, and 700,000 tons of fuel oil. With Moscow and Ryazan refineries also shut down following strikes on May 17 and 15, nearly all major central Russian refineries have been forced to stop or slash fuel production, inflicting economic losses on Russia’s oil sector and tightening domestic fuel supply.

⚡🇷🇺 Russia is dusting off its privatisation playbook. Facing an‼️$82B budget deficit in just four months, Moscow is selling a 24% stake in #Aeroflot at a depressed market price - potentially raising ~$630M for a national carrier now valued at just $2.6B.The state is offloading one-third of its holding at rock-bottom multiples (P/E ~2x vs global peers at 12x) - a clear bargain for buyers amid sanctions pain. Domestic oligarchs & state-linked funds will likely snap it up; foreigners are locked out. A short-term cash fix, but signals deeper fiscal stress as non-oil revenues slump & 🇷🇺 GDP growth was slashed to 0.4%. #MakeRussiaPay Photo: @MoscowTimes

❗🇷🇺 Russian companies with 🇮🇳 Indian founders have tripled since 2022, climbing past one thousand. India has surged to become Moscow’s second-largest trading partner, fuelled by discounted #RussianOil & hitting nearly $69B in bilateral trade last year. Yet Indian-linked firms represent only a slim 1.6% of all foreign entities in Russia, dwarfed by 🇨🇳 commanding 22% share. This reveals pragmatic opportunism rather than a grand strategic shift. Sanctions carved out voids that agile 🇮🇳 entrepreneurs quickly filled in trading, logistics & niche manufacturing. Prospects look promising for deeper ties in pharmaceuticals, engineering goods & IT services, especially as both sides eye a $100B target. Still, the heavy trade imbalance, payment frictions & looming secondary sanctions risks keep this relationship tactical. #Geopolitics

🇪🇺EU membership could transform Ukraine and strengthen the entire Union. For Ukraine: full access to the world’s largest single market, massive reconstruction funds, foreign investment, stronger rule of law, anti-corruption standards, and long-term security and prosperity for its people. For the EU: a bigger, more dynamic market of millions motivated citizens, enhanced food and industrial production, a stronger eastern flank against Russian aggression, and greater geopolitical weight on the global stage. Win-win for both sides. However, Ukraine needs to pass all the stages to be ready for the access. Reforms and trust are our best friends on this way. #UkraineInTheEU

⚡️Russia has released photos of its US-sanctioned #LNG carrier Arctic Metagas, damaged on March 3, 2026, while sailing from Murmansk to China. Russia says, the vessel was hit by at least two UAVs and three unmanned boats with explosives near Malta, causing a fire, destruction of control systems, and severe damage to two of four LNG tanks. Investigators in Libya examined the ship with drones, confirming external explosive impacts but no environmental spill or fuel leaks. Russia accuses Ukraine of the attack (which Kyiv has not commented on). This incident likely caused tens of millions of dollars in direct losses for the ship, its cargo (around 60,000+ tonnes of LNG), and disrupted Russian Arctic LNG exports to Asia, adding pressure on Moscow’s #ShadowFleet operations. The drifting vessel also raised major environmental concerns in the Mediterranean before being secured.