Kyrylo Shevchenko

1/3 In the face of unprecedented adversity in 2022, Ukraine's banking system stood resilient against the storm of a full-scale Russian invasion. Under my stewardship at @NBUkraine, we became Ukraine's financial shield. Here is what we did: 👇

⚡️Chip shortage could last until 2030. One of the largest memory makers stated that DRAM & HBM supply is over 20 % below demand, driven by AI data centers consuming capacity once used for smartphones and PCs.‼️Global investments are huge❗️Micron’s $100 B NY fab, SK Hynix & Samsung expansions, yet relief won’t arrive for 4–5 years. Memory prices have surged >100 %, fueling electronics inflation. Moreover, the shortage also affects industries such as robotics and automotive. #MemoryShortage #Semiconductors #ChipCrisis Photo: open sources

⚡️95% of 🇷🇺 Russia’s hafnium exports once went to Europe — now abruptly redirected to Asia through 10+ new contracts.‼️ Used in semiconductors and aerospace, hafnium trades in thin volumes but high value, making even small contract shifts economically meaningful.‼️ This pivot is driven by Rosatom, one of Russia’s largest state corporations and a dominant global nuclear player with ~$18B in annual foreign revenue and an order book exceeding $200B. Controlling critical nuclear materials and advanced metallurgy, it is now reallocating niche outputs like hafnium - where supply is structurally scarce (1:50 with zirconium) and processing is capital-intensive. #RussiasEconomy #RareMetals #CriticalMinerals #MakeRussiaPay Photo: @REUTERS / Evgenia Novozhenina

⚡️One of Russia’s leading companies, Rusal, reported a $455M net loss in 2025, (profit in 2024 - $803M). Revenue rose 22.6% to $14.8B due to 16.4% higher aluminum sales and LME price gains, but surging production costs, energy, labor & logistics, plus a $431M FX loss, erased profits. 📉 Auditors warn of “substantial uncertainty” amid sanctions, geopolitical tension & market volatility. Even top industrial players in Russia are struggling. #RussiaSanctions #RussiasEconomy #RusalLoss #AluminiumMarket Photo: Wikipedia / Vesan99

⚡️⚡️⚡️BREAKING: The US may soon lift sanctions on ~140 million barrels of Iranian oil already loaded on tankers at sea. Treasury Secretary @SecScottBessent told Fox Business this could add 10-14 days of global supply and help cap rising oil prices. Essentially: using Iranian barrels against Iran to keep prices down while the military campaign continues. If sanctions stay — most would go to China anyway. If lifted — it floods the world market instead. Quite a move!

⚡️Over the next decade, 🇵🇱Poland will invest ~$270B (≈$1T PLN) into its energy sector - one of the largest capital programs in Europe today. ~$60B allocated to renewables & storage, ~$63B to electricity transmission, ~$43B to nuclear capacity.‼️ PM Donald Tusk (@donaldtusk) positions this as a response to hard security economics: wars in 🇺🇦Ukraine and the Middle East have repriced energy reliability, supply chains, and cost stability. During last 35 years, Poland climbed from post-communist collapse to the world’s #20 economy - overtaking 🇨🇭 Switzerland. #PolandEconomy #EnergyTransition #EnergySecurity Photi: Getty Images

⚡️“They just promise every week: ‘It will be Friday’” - 🇷🇺Russians in occupied 🇺🇦Mariupol have stopped paying construction workers. PST workers haven’t been paid since December 2025, with accounts frozen since March 11, 2026. Moscow firm Ostrob delayed wages from October 2025, and by March December pay remained unpaid. Other affected firms include SpetsSnabTrans (Chechnya, bankrupt), Global Engineering Donbas, and Mariupolzhytlokomplex. Ukrainian city Mariupol has been under Russian occupation since May 2022. #RussiasEconomy #LaborCrisis #ConstructionWorkers #MariupolUkraine #RussianOccupation Photo: oporaua. org

⚡️⚡️⚡️BREAKING: €90 B EU loan to 🇺🇦Ukraine remains blocked by 🇭🇺 Hungary’s Viktor Orbán - a direct threat to Kyiv’s fiscal stability. Without these funds, Ukraine risks being unable to pay pensions, public salaries, and military expenditures.🌐The package was meant to cover roughly two-thirds of Ukraine’s 2026–27 financing needs, including defense procurement and essential services. Delay forces Kyiv to seek alternatives, like bilateral support (~ $33 B) from known plans of Nordic & Baltic countries, but this doesn’t fully bridge the gap. ‼️🇪🇺 #UkraineEconomy #EUloan #ViktorOrban Photo: AFP / Getty Images

⚡️⚡️⚡️BREAKING: The UK has dispatched a team of military planners to US Central Command (CENTCOM) at MacDill Air Force Base in Florida to help develop scenarios for reopening the blockaded #StraitOfHormuz amid the escalating #MiddleEast crisis and soaring oil prices. Acc. to @Independent , the group is working on options to clear the vital shipping lane, where the main threat is mining — plus Iran's fast attack boats, ballistic missiles, and air/sea/underwater drones. U.K. Minister for the Armed Forces Al Carns noted that a similar 1987 operation required 30 warships, but today's risks are greater, making few nations willing to send ships into such extreme danger right now. Critical for global energy security!

⚡️German investor morale plunged to −0.5 in March on the ZEW economic sentiment index - the sharpest drop since Feb 2022 and far below the expected +39.0, signaling acute risk aversion among analysts amid rising energy prices and geopolitical shocks. 🇩🇪 ZEW’s survey shows expectations collapsing even as the present situation slightly improved to −62.9 from −65.9. Deutsche Bank has cut Germany’s 2026 growth forecast to 1.0% from 1.5%, reflecting weaker capital spending and inflation pressure from oil & gas markets. ❗️For 🇪🇺 Europe’s largest economy - with public debt near 70% of GDP and export‑led sectors hit - such sentiment deterioration could presage slower investment, hiring and output. #GermanyEconomy #ZEWIndex #InvestorSentiment Photo: @REUTERS / Timm Reichert

⚡️🇺🇦Ukraine’s central bank kept its key policy rate at 15%.‼️ Inflation is easing but still above target, so cutting rates too early risks reigniting price pressures and weakening the currency. At the same time, further hikes would raise borrowing costs, strain businesses and households.‼️🌐 Globally, major central banks are approaching rate decisions amid persistent inflation pressures and volatile energy markets. The 🇺🇸 Fed, ECB, and 🇬🇧BoE have largely paused after aggressive hikes, while several emerging markets have already begun cutting rates; in contrast, the 🇯🇵 BoJ is only starting to move away from ultra-loose policy. #UkraineEconomy #NBU #MonetaryPolicy Photo: open source

❗📈 🇩🇪 Germany is unleashing its most significant military buildup since the Cold War: an initial ‼️€600B earmarked for defence - more than France & Britain combined. Bypassing strict fiscal rules, the spending is turbocharging growth: #Rheinmetall shares up over ‼️160% since early 2025, new ammunition plants built in months, struggling auto suppliers pivoting to drones & tanks, @weberalexander & @KowalczeKamil write for @business. @UBS sees defence adding 0.5pp to annual 🇩🇪 GDP growth by 2028. What started as a response to Russia’s war in Ukraine — and now intensified by Iran - has become a strategic bet on German-led 🇪🇺 defence dominance. Geopolitics has quietly turned into Berlin’s most powerful economic stimulus. So the real question: if defence is now the growth engine, doesn’t that mean these wars aren’t ending anytime soon? #MilitaryBuildup Photo: @business

⚡️🇷🇺Russian Railways (RZD) to cut ~ 6,000 jobs (≈15% of HQ staff) amid deep financial stress. 🚆 After posting a 2025 net loss (~ $49M) vs $489M profit in 2024, RZD plans cuts to save $820M in 2026. Freight volumes have slumped to ~1.1B tonnes - lowest since 2009 - prompting a 25% cut in the 2026 capex plan to ~$7.9B. ‼️ Fuel, power & maintenance costs being trimmed; asset sales and unpaid leave underway.‼️Paradoxically, RZD is importing labor from 🇮🇳 India (first ~35 workers onboarded) even as it shrinks headcount - a stark sign of structural labor & demand issues. #RussianRailways #RailIndustry #MakeRussiaPay Photo: Wikimedia

USAID $4.5 billion in direct budget support to Ukraine in 2022 could have serious structural weaknesses in the U.S. oversight (Jan 2023 State OIG report). The biggest problem is that it heavily relied on Ukrainian self-reporting! The State OIG report is deliberately narrow — it does not audit actual spending, detect corruption, or evaluate effectiveness. It only checked that the @StateDept followed proper paperwork and clearance procedures before obligating the funds through the World Bank’s PEACE mechanism. The potential misuses, imperfections, and risks the system itself include: 1. Heavy reliance on Ukrainian self-reporting and documentation. Ukraine spends the money first, submits receipts, and the World Bank only reimburses after review. This creates a dangerous window for potential misuse or falsified documentation before any real verification occurs. 2. Speed was explicitly prioritized over tighter controls. Direct government-to-government cash transfers and IMF channels were rejected because negotiating stronger accountability mechanisms and memoranda of understanding would have caused delays. The report openly admits “the pace of events in Ukraine necessitated rapid assistance funding disbursement.” 3. Third-party monitoring by Deloitte is extremely limited. Deloitte was hired specifically because Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance systems had known “gaps” in monitoring, transparency, verification, and reporting — yet their role is mostly reviewing systems, identifying gaps, and conducting only “limited spot checks,” not full forensic audits of every transaction. 4. No independent verification of Ukraine’s “substantial safeguards” at the time of certification. The U.S. certified that Ukraine had strong anti-corruption protections based largely on World Bank policies and future Deloitte work — without the OIG (or anyone) actually testing whether those safeguards were functioning on the ground in October 2022. 5. Overall system design depends on post-expenditure verification rather than real-time prevention. Combined with wartime chaos, Ukraine’s pre-existing corruption challenges, and the fact that large businesses tied to officials appear to get preferential treatment in some cases, this setup leaves significant room for waste, fraud, and abuse. The report gave the process a procedural “green light” — but the actual safeguards appear paper-thin compared to the billions involved. Serious questions remain about real accountability. Should Congress demand another independent investigation of the money use? @POTUS @marcorubio @JamesBradleyCA @jamiewrit @leonidragozin @owenmatth @DanielLDavis1 @ConstantMeheut @IgnatiusPost @JDVance @MarioNawfal @lexfridman @FBIDirectorKash @DNIGabbard @olliecarroll @paolomossetti @CortesSteve @HavryshkoMarta @TuckerCarlson @GeromanAT @Kim_Barker

⚡️🇷🇺 Gazprom reported a meager net profit of 11.3 B  RUB ($140 M) in 2025, a stunning swing from a 1.08  T  RUB ($13 B) loss in 2024, propped up largely by artificial tax relief. 📉Revenue slipped ~7% to 5.85  T RUB ($72 B), with gas sales down ~6% to 3.67 T  RUB ($45 B). Cost controls lifted gross margins, yielding a modest operating profit of 127 B RUB ($1.6 B). ‼️ Gazprom remains one of Russia’s largest and most influential companies, underpinning the country’s energy sector and fiscal landscape. #RussiasEconomy #MakeRussiaPay Photo: @REUTERS / Anton Vaganov

⚡️🇵🇱 Poland is now among the world’s largest economies.‼️In just 35 years, Poland climbed from post-communist collapse to the world’s #20 economy - overtaking 🇨🇭Switzerland. GDP per capita surged from $6,730 (1990) to $55,340 (2025), now ~85% of the 🇪🇺 EU average.📈 Sustained 3.8% annual growth since 2004 (vs. EU’s 1.8%), disciplined institutions, EU capital inflows in the hundreds of billions, and a highly educated workforce earning ~50% of Western wages➕ Add early bets on tech (AI, quantum) and political consensus on integration. The next test is sustaining it amid aging demographics and the need for deeper innovation. #PolandEconomy #EconomicGrowth #EmergingMarkets #EuropeanUnion Photo: open sources

⚡️🇨🇺 Cuba restored nationwide power after a 29‑hour blackout on March 17, bringing online its largest oil‑fired plant. Officials warn shortages may persist despite the new plant, as generation remains insufficient. ‼️ The blackout triggered sharp political exchanges: the US called it a “symptom of regime incompetence,” while President Díaz‑Canel accused Washington of daily threats and trying to seize the country’s resources and economy. #CubaEconomy #PowerOutage #EnergyCrisis Photo: @REUTERS / Norlys Perez

⚡️🇺🇦 Ukraine launched its largest biomethane plant, raising total capacity to 106M m³ across 6 producers. Against ~20B m³ annual gas demand, that’s just ~0.5%. The new plant (Teofipol Energy Co.) is directly connected to the gas transmission system, allowing biomethane to flow straight into the main grid without intermediaries.‼️One more plant is expected soon, which will slightly increase capacity, though volumes remain small compared to overall demand. 📈Biomethane is domestically produced, renewable, and reduces import exposure. #UkraineEconomy #NaturalGas #EnergySecurity Photo: EXPRO

💥 France & Switzerland stand out as Europe's most prepared for #EnergyCrises. 🇫🇷 relies on nuclear for around 70% of electricity, 🇨🇭 combines hydro & nuclear for about 85% - both deliver stable, gas-free supply that withstands price spikes and disruptions. Meanwhile 🇩🇪 Germany - phased out nuclear, stuck with coal+gas reliance, & 🇮🇹 Italy - heavy gas dependence ~40%, now scramble for fixes, per @fwred. Rejecting #AtomicEnergy looks like 🇪🇺 costliest blunder: it prolonged fossil addiction & handed #GreenTech reins to China - 90%+ of solar panels, massive wind/battery leverage, trading one dependence for another. In hindsight, true #EnergySovereignty demands unflinching long-term vision over populist phase-outs. #EnergyMix Photo: @PictetGroup

⚡️🇺🇦 Ukraine has received full EU accession benchmarks across all negotiation clusters — de‑facto unlocking the roadmap toward EU membership. ‼️Shortly, Benchmarks demand credible implementation - judicial reform, anti‑corruption and regulatory convergence - not activism alone. 📈Completion of these benchmarks could unlock $80‑100 bn+ in 🇪🇺EU structural funds and investment guarantees over the next decade, while deeper integration with the €15 T EU internal market can boost Ukraine’s GDP by mid‑single digits annually once trade barriers fall. 🌐 For the EU, integrating a 40 m market with competitive agri, IT and industrial sectors strengthens supply chains and broadens the customs union’s tax base, potentially adding 0.2–0.4 % to EU GDP growth. #UkraineEconomy #UkraineEU #EasternPartnership Photo: open sources

⚡️🇨🇳 Chinese state firms resume 🇷🇺 Russian oil purchases after a 4‑month pause triggered by 🇺🇸U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, leveraging a 30‑day waiver covering ~100M barrels. Brent crude >$100 and Middle East disruptions are tightening Asia supply, making Russian ESPO grades shift from $8–10/bbl discounts to ~$2–3/bbl premiums. China still holds ~1.2B barrels in reserves and imports ~12M b/d, so this move is not necessity-driven. #RussiaSanctions #ChineEconomy #MakeRussiaPay Photo: open sources