Keith Kaplan

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Keith Kaplan

Keith Kaplan

@KeithTradeSmith

CEO of TradeSmith, a leading fintech and quantitative investment research firm. Investors trust over $30 billion to be monitored and analyzed on our platform.

Katılım Ekim 2022
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Keith Kaplan
Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith·
If you are panicking about the markets, advice I shared a year ago during the tariff tantrum is a timeless approach to controlling your emotions.
Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith

Here's the most critical thing you can do in the markets right now. 1) Recall why you entered the stock that you are looking at right now in your portfolio? You have to answer that question. Was it news, a hunch, a recommendation, a fundamentally sound company? Was it for "forever" ... ? 2) When you entered that stock, what was your exit plan? Did you have one? Don't get emotional now and just sell everything. You need a disciplined exit plan for every stock you have. 3) If you are looking at a forever stock or planned to hold that stock a long time (for say dividend collection), don't just go changing your exit plan now. (an idea a few points down for you) 4) If you didn't design an exit plan when you entered a stock and don't want to hold it long term further, here's what you can do now ... You can take the less volatile stocks in your portfolio (stocks like $MCD, $HD, $KO, $JNJ) and assign them a 15% trailing stop. If, since you've owned them, they've dropped 15% from their most recent high while owning them, it's a great time to sell. For medium level volatile companies (stocks like $V, $AAPL, $MSFT) you could assign a 25% trailing stop exiting if they've fallen 25% or more since you bought them from their most recent high. For much higher level volatility companies (stocks like $NFLX, $TSLA, $NAK), you could assign a 35% trailing stop and exit if they've fallen 35% or more from their highs since you bought. This is just a simple way to look at your holdings and apply simple portfolio management strategies that take the emotions out of investing and allow you to be level headed with the markets performing how they are today. 5) For your forever stocks and ones you'll hold for a while ... you could sell covered calls against them and you could target 2 - 4 weeks out at a strike price above yesterday's close. Worst case, your stock retreats and you keep the income and the stock gets called away. BUT, if you want to continue holding it, you'd roll that call (simultaneously buy it back and sell a future one at break even much higher until that expires worthless). Best case, your stock rises a little bit and you get paid income along the way. I love this strategy, but don't chase premiums and lose a forever stock early!! **I hope that these ideas help you. Let me know what you think and what your plan is. You, ultimately, have to decide what's best for you, these are just ideas!**

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Keith Kaplan
Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith·
AI Optical Networking Stocks Bounce Back Hard $LITE, $COHR, and $CIEN are surging again after the market correction. The optical networking sector, hammered 10%-22% from its highs, is roaring back to life with Ciena at new all-time highs and the others approaching theirs. This matters because optical networking is critical infrastructure for the AI boom. Big Tech is spending over $600 billion in 2026 alone on AI infrastructure, and optical equipment makers are capturing enormous demand. Here's what's different about this moment: AI isn't creating the same demand patterns we saw 20 years ago. Instead of gradual, predictable growth, we're seeing "demand shocks" - sudden, explosive jumps in demand that push prices and volumes hundreds of percent higher. These demand shocks happen because AI is the fastest-evolving technology in history. Capacity needs explode quarter to quarter. Companies don't have time to plan around them. The suppliers who can meet that demand - like makers of optical networking equipment - see simultaneous jumps in unit sales and per-unit prices. The result: stocks that return hundreds of percent over 18 months. Then corrections. Then bigger rallies. Ciena is up 4.3% this morning and at new highs. Lumentum up 6.2%, near all-time peaks. Coherent up 4.1%, approaching new highs. The bull market in optical networking is back in motion.
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Keith Kaplan
Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith·
Want to know about the "Edge" of computing and AI? Check out my latest interview focused on the embedded nature of AI and ways to play it, including how to keep premature babies safe in the NICU. Thanks @BridgetRBennett and @MarketBeatCom for hosting me again! 👇👇 youtu.be/Z-zypKm_Qjg?si…
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Keith Kaplan
Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith·
Last Week's Winners: $ARTL +112% $LNZA +105% $ANNA +79% $WATT +48% $RHLD +45% $BW +44% $ACXP +44% $ELA +38% S&P 500: $CIEN +14% $APA +13% $BKR +11% $HAL +8% $DAL +8% $WDC +8% $LRCX +8% $SNDK +7% Most Popular: $TSLA $NVDA $HIMS $PLTR $AMZN $IREN $ASTS $SOFI $HOOD $NBIS $RDDT
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Keith Kaplan
Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith·
The Trillion-Dollar AI Infrastructure Bet Big tech companies are spending $1 trillion-plus on AI infrastructure, and the real winners aren't necessarily the chip makers themselves. $AMAT, $LRCX, and $KLA are the three U.S. leaders in semiconductor equipment, and they're the unglamorous backbone enabling the entire AI boom. These companies don't manufacture semiconductors. They provide the fabrication machines, testing services, and production components that make the semiconductor industry function. Without them, there is no AI infrastructure buildout. Without them, there is no AI boom. The investment flows are staggering. Google, Amazon, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, and Meta are on pace to spend around $700 billion on AI infrastructure this year alone, with trillions more to follow. That capital flows directly to the equipment makers who enable production at scale. The results speak for themselves. $AMAT, $LRCX, and $KLA have each gained more than 100% over the past year. They're experiencing terrific revenue growth and strong stock uptrends. The demand tailwinds from the AI megatrend are structural and durable. This is what it looks like when an entire industry has so much future demand, so much capital flowing in, and such massive tailwinds that it's essentially running downhill financially. Semiconductor equipment is exactly that kind of industry right now.
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Keith Kaplan
Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith·
Goldman Sachs forecasts global data center power demand soars 50% by 2027 - 165% by 2030. While stocks tanked last week, $EXC $DUK $FE $SO hit new all-time highs. The AI boom needs electricity. Utilities are the picks and shovels play. $XLU $EXC $DUK #AI #utilities
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Keith Kaplan
Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith·
The Critical Metals Supercycle Behind Missile Restocking Missile arsenals are being depleted at historic rates, and the supply chain crunch is real. This isn't just about defense spending - it's about control of the critical minerals that make advanced weapons possible. $MP $LMT $SRL Every precision missile, drone, and radar system depends on rare earths and exotic alloys. Scandium, when combined with aluminum, creates structures that are lightweight yet incredibly strong. It's become a national security imperative. The US doesn't have the most advanced missiles and drones without scandium. When you're manufacturing missiles at scale, you're creating massive demand for the metals that make them possible. The supply chain is already strained and geopolitically sensitive. This creates a clear investment thesis: increased missile manufacturing equals increased critical metals demand. Three companies are positioned to capture this opportunity. $MP Materials controls Mountain Pass in California, one of the richest rare-earth deposits in the world and the only large-scale rare-earth mine in the US. At a $10 billion market cap, this is the lower-risk play. MP produces neodymium and praseodymium, which go into high-strength magnets for missiles, drones, and motors. $SRL, Sunrise Energy Metals, owns the Syerston project in Australia - one of the largest scandium resources globally. It also contains nickel and cobalt. The real catalyst: Sunrise signed a five-year scandium option with $LMT, Lockheed Martin. That gives LMT the right to purchase up to 25% of Sunrise's scandium output. $DBLVF, Doubleview Gold, is a smaller play with significant scandium content in its British Columbia project. It's higher risk since it's still in development, but it's a leveraged way to play the scandium thesis. Depleted arsenals must be restocked. The race for critical metals is on.
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Keith Kaplan
Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith·
Yesterday's Market Notes: Winners Taking the Victory Lap Energy is absolutely crushing it. Back in September, we recommended loading up on oil stocks - and it's paying in spades. $COP, $HAL, and $CVX all hit all-time highs yesterday. $BNO is sitting at new one-year highs. The bet is working exactly as planned. The optics story keeps delivering. $AXTI is up 160% since we called it in January. This isn't a small move - this is the kind of conviction play that rewards patience. Space is having its moment. Our September space recommendation is firing on all cylinders. $PL just jumped 31% yesterday alone and is up a stunning 733% over the last year. That's the kind of compounding that turns small bets into real money. Solar is in full stride. $SEDG hit a new one-year high yesterday, up 10%, and it's now up 192% over the past year. The January call is proving its worth as solar technology continues its advance. Meanwhile, the AI lawnmower is still running. $ADBE just hit new one-year lows as the momentum shifts. Not every trade works, but the winning trades are winning big. The scoreboard: energy, optics, space, and solar - all delivering.
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Keith Kaplan
Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith·
PIVOT signal just fired on $WMT Tight price compression with oversold pullback on Walmart - setting up a reversion to the upside. 91.9% win historically, 37 times Avg Gain: +3.3% in 28 days Exit: Exit when RSI(5) rolls over from overbought #WMT #signals #trading #stocks
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Keith Kaplan
Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith·
Critical Resources: The Government's Next Trillion-Dollar Play The U.S. government has shifted from blocking domestic mines to backing them with trillions. This pivot is creating one of the decade's most lucrative opportunities in critical resources like $UAMY and $ALM. Here's what's happening: President Trump has staked his legacy on expanding U.S. manufacturing capacity. But there's a massive problem - we lack the copper, lithium, rare earths, antimony, nickel, and other materials needed to build the infrastructure required. We can't source enough of these materials domestically. Most refining, smelting, and processing happens overseas, particularly in China. This dependency became a vulnerability the government can no longer accept in a deglobalizing world. The result? Complete policy reversal. After 30+ years of hostility toward domestic mining and mineral processing, the U.S. government is now changing laws, removing regulations, and writing massive checks to increase production. Operation Epic Fury is making this real. The market is responding. US Antimony $UAMY has climbed 384% over the past year as the company partners with government to boost antimony supplies for batteries, defense applications, and ammunition. Almonty Industries $ALM, a major tungsten processor, surged 577% over the past year and hit all-time highs recently. Tungsten is critical for munitions, electronics, and industrial tools. Our thesis: Companies partnering with the U.S. government to increase domestic and allied-country supplies of critical resources will be among the most rewarding investments of this decade. The scarcity is real. The government commitment is real. The gains have just begun.
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Keith Kaplan
Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith·
$SPY / $SPX just hit red in my system joining $QQQ / $NDX and Hong Kong. $IWB / $DJIA / $IWM are all yellow. Don't panic, don't get emotional. Follow your exit plan on your stocks and funds.
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Keith Kaplan
Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith·
The Machine Economy Needs Stablecoins There may be 100 million AI agents in our economy within two years - possibly billions. That's the next megatrend reshaping money itself. Coinbase $COIN CEO recently said it plainly: "Very soon, there are going to be more AI agents than humans making transactions." The catch? Agents can't open bank accounts. They can own crypto wallets. This creates a singular opportunity. AI agents rent compute power, buy and sell data, and send millions of micropayments daily. Traditional banking infrastructure - ID verification, account applications, forms - doesn't work for machines. But stablecoins do. These are digital dollars that live in coded wallets, move instantly anywhere, anytime, without intermediaries. The numbers are already staggering. Stablecoin transaction volume reached $33 trillion last year, up 70% from the prior year. That's now in the ballpark of major card networks worldwide. Three companies are positioned at the center of this shift. Coinbase $COIN is the world's largest crypto exchange and major stablecoin infrastructure provider. It now generates about 20% of revenue from stablecoins - transitioning from "crypto exchange" to tollbooth on stablecoin volume. The stock is showing strength this year after flat performance last year. SoFi Technologies $SOFI, the $22 billion digital banking company, created SoFiUSD - a dollar-backed stablecoin. It just partnered with Mastercard $MA so SoFiUSD can settle payments on Mastercard's network. Circle $CRCL, the $30 billion digital payments company, powers USD Coin (USDC). For every real US dollar, there's one USDC on the blockchain. The stock has moved up 100% recently. If the vision is even half right, the next dominant user of money won't be human. It'll be machines. And the plumbing connecting those machines to the dollar? That's where COIN, SOFI, and CRCL operate.
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Keith Kaplan
Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith·
$LYB up 71% YTD, $BP $LNG $DVN $WDS $CTRA all hit all-time highs today. Energy thesis keeps compounding. $TSM rolling over, $V and $MA both in the red. $DEO slumping as drinking rates decline. Cyclicals are printing while defensives get hit. Winners and losers diverging fast.
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Keith Kaplan
Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith·
Pivot signal just fired on $DE Mean-reversion setup on $DE - higher high / higher low with a bearish close after reversal - setting up a bounce-back buy. 100.0% win historically, 21 times Avg gain: +5.9% in 15 days Exit: Take profits at 6% #DE #signals #trading #stocks
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Keith Kaplan
Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith·
$ITRI - The Power Grid Upgrade Play That Hasn't Run Yet The Power Grid Upgrade theme has produced some big winners. Quanta Services $PWR gained 140% in the last year. Monolithic Power Systems $MPWR gained 82%. But one company inside this theme hasn't made its big move yet - and that may be about to change. Itron $ITRI is a $4 billion smart grid infrastructure firm. It makes smart meters, grid-edge devices, and network management software. While other grid plays have surged on the build-out narrative, Itron is quietly positioning itself at the intersection of grid efficiency and AI. The bull case comes down to how the grid actually gets upgraded. Companies like Quanta handle the physical infrastructure - new power plants, new transmission lines, new distribution networks. Critical work, but it takes years. Itron handles the other side of the equation: smarter monitoring and management software that helps utilities squeeze more capacity out of what they already have. That can make a difference now. Goldman Sachs forecasts global data center power demand will climb 50% by 2027 and up to 165% by the end of the decade. Big Tech alone is spending over $600 billion this year on AI infrastructure. Trillions more are coming. Itron is layering AI into its platform through partnerships with Nvidia, Microsoft, Snowflake, and Amazon. Its solutions can cut power outages by 10% and boost effective capacity by 20%. Its fundamental score sits at 90 out of 100, reflecting market-leading revenue and earnings growth. With that much capital chasing AI power solutions, $ITRI looks like a name that hasn't been discovered yet.
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Jonathan Rose
Jonathan Rose@Mastersintradng·
We love $LASR -- one of our favorite plays of 2026. Great call @KeithTradeSmith
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Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith

Laser Weapons Are Now Real - And $LASR Is the Only Pure Play The battlefield is going laser. And there is one small company at the center of what could be a major defense technology shift. All last year, I urged buying drone stocks for a simple reason - military drone makers had started producing effective hardware at low cost, with very high cost-to-damage inflicted ratios. Key drone industry players are up hundreds of percent since those calls. The next wave could be directed energy weapons. In December 2025, Israel's Iron Beam, a high-energy laser system designed to intercept drones and missiles, was deployed in live battle - believed to be the first time a high-energy laser weapon was used in live combat. The U.S. Navy's top surface warfare officer is now publicly talking about "a laser on every ship" after successful at-sea tests. The only pure-play, publicly listed company focused on developing megawatt-class directed-energy weapons is nLIGHT $LASR. nLIGHT is a confirmed supplier to Israel's Iron Beam program and holds a $171 million U.S. Defense contract to scale its beam architecture to 1 megawatt - enough power to engage ballistic and hypersonic missiles. The company has confirmed it is already responding to Golden Dome RFPs, the U.S. program that explicitly envisions a laser layer in national defense. This is not a pre-revenue hope play. Aerospace and defense sales are already growing 40-50%. The company just raised $200 million to expand U.S. manufacturing capacity. The economics are compelling. Once installed, each laser shot costs little more than the electricity to fire it. No missiles to restock, no bullets to reload. Speed-of-light engagement, pinpoint accuracy, and effectively unlimited magazines. Global defense spending exceeds $2.5 trillion annually and is growing. Laser weapons are no longer science fiction. $LASR is a name worth watching closely.

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Keith Kaplan
Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith·
Laser Weapons Are Now Real - And $LASR Is the Only Pure Play The battlefield is going laser. And there is one small company at the center of what could be a major defense technology shift. All last year, I urged buying drone stocks for a simple reason - military drone makers had started producing effective hardware at low cost, with very high cost-to-damage inflicted ratios. Key drone industry players are up hundreds of percent since those calls. The next wave could be directed energy weapons. In December 2025, Israel's Iron Beam, a high-energy laser system designed to intercept drones and missiles, was deployed in live battle - believed to be the first time a high-energy laser weapon was used in live combat. The U.S. Navy's top surface warfare officer is now publicly talking about "a laser on every ship" after successful at-sea tests. The only pure-play, publicly listed company focused on developing megawatt-class directed-energy weapons is nLIGHT $LASR. nLIGHT is a confirmed supplier to Israel's Iron Beam program and holds a $171 million U.S. Defense contract to scale its beam architecture to 1 megawatt - enough power to engage ballistic and hypersonic missiles. The company has confirmed it is already responding to Golden Dome RFPs, the U.S. program that explicitly envisions a laser layer in national defense. This is not a pre-revenue hope play. Aerospace and defense sales are already growing 40-50%. The company just raised $200 million to expand U.S. manufacturing capacity. The economics are compelling. Once installed, each laser shot costs little more than the electricity to fire it. No missiles to restock, no bullets to reload. Speed-of-light engagement, pinpoint accuracy, and effectively unlimited magazines. Global defense spending exceeds $2.5 trillion annually and is growing. Laser weapons are no longer science fiction. $LASR is a name worth watching closely.
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Keith Kaplan
Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith·
Market Notes: $MU, $DVN, $CPNG, $LULU, and More A quick scan of what's moving today: The semiconductor supply chain is showing strength. Memory leaders Micron $MU and Sandisk $SNDK hit new all-time highs. Optics names are surging - Lumentum $LITE is up 12% and Applied Optoelectronics $AAOI is up 8% on the session. The hardware backbone of the AI build-out continues to attract capital. Oil stocks are rewarding patient holders. Our call to own oil names back in late September is paying off in a big way. Devon Energy $DVN reached another all-time high today and is already up 26% year-to-date. The US Brent Oil ETF $BNO also just hit a new one-year high. South Korean e-commerce leader Coupang $CPNG just hit a new one-month high - a quiet but constructive signal of momentum building in the name. On the other end of the ledger, premium athletic apparel leader Lululemon $LULU just fell to a new one-year low. The stock is down 49% over the past year. Even dominant consumer brands can face extended downturns when growth slows and sentiment turns. Markets are volatile and headlines are loud right now. But under the noise, the data-driven themes - defense tech, copper, power grid upgrades, AI infrastructure - remain intact. The companies inside those trends are still making new highs. That's where the evidence continues to point.
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Keith Kaplan
Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith·
The Nuclear Renaissance Is Just Getting Started - $CCJ $UEC $URA After a sharp pullback, uranium miners are back in shape - and the bull case is stronger than ever. I have been highlighting the emerging uptrend in uranium miners, with Cameco $CCJ and Uranium Energy $UEC as key names. Since my original call, $CCJ is up 300% and $UEC is up 194%. If you missed that move, there may still be time to act. The structural driver behind uranium demand is only getting bigger. AI data centers are consuming electricity at an unprecedented scale. Goldman Sachs forecasts global data center power demand will climb 50% by 2027 and as much as 165% by the end of the decade. Nuclear power - always-on, carbon-free, and reliable - is becoming the go-to answer. Bloomberg reports surging nuclear demand will drive $350 billion in nuclear spending in the U.S. alone by 2050. This Nuclear Renaissance runs on uranium as fuel. But uranium supply is constrained and will remain so for years. AI cannot code a uranium mine into existence. Uranium miners took a sharp hit during the height of Operation Epic Fury. But the Global X Uranium ETF $URA has already rallied 1.7% off its lows and appears poised to reach new highs. Given nuclear energy's demand outlook, new highs look likely sooner rather than later. Ways to get exposure include direct plays through $CCJ or $UEC, nuclear service companies like BWX Technologies $BWXT, Mirion Technologies $MIR, and Centrus $LEU, or a diversified approach through $URA or the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF $URNM. The Nuclear Renaissance is real, demand-driven, and showing no signs of slowing down.
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Keith Kaplan
Keith Kaplan@KeithTradeSmith·
Sprint Signal Just Fired on Howmet Aerospace $HWM Our Signals product spotted a high-probability pullback entry in $HWM - in our system, when a stock in a strong trend dips like this, the pattern has historically snapped back hard. This momentum setup has fired 84 times on $HWM. The win rate: 94.0%. Average gain across all trades (wins and losses): +5.5% over an average hold of 15 days. Best winner: +22.5%. Max loss: -2.4%. The exit rule: exit when RSI(2) reaches an extreme overbought reading.
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