Kelly Marshall

Fave surely gets out tomorrow in betting

@RWAStewards Can you please confirm if A Lot Of Montey is a gelding? Racing Australia and RWWA both listed as entire, yet stewards comments list it as gelding last start.

While since I have written something beyond a sarcastic Tweet so here are a few reflections on Ka Ying, his time, his place, and the enjoyable pub debates: racingandsports.com.au/news/racing/in…

Before last few runs was very confident Black Caviar would roll KYR but now off last couple not so much. The 137 figure possible but when you look at who BC beat up like Buffering and he couldnt win a G1 until she retired. Then he won 7. Would like to see KYR form hold up more.

If the US only has self interest, when are the leaders of other countries going to have the gall to stand up to Trump. Easiest way, turn to either Pound or Brics and dump the US dollar

@J_Walter23 @tabcomau Creates one pool, makes derivatives fairer. Also with multis be nice to see only a takeout on the final leg only. As betting into a 4 leg multi even at 110% markets you are betting into a 146% market.

@KellyT_Marshall @tabcomau Not sure what you mean at all? Understand the rounding. Easily fixed with an actual dividend return. Remove rounding completely

SERIOUS question for @tabcomau The National Tote launch is apparently imminent, but merging three pools into one without changing the fundamental economics is just rearranging the deckchairs. If the product remains high-takeout and low-value, you are just building a bigger target for the Corporates. The Reality: Fixed odds markets are sitting at 120%+. Betfair is being taxed into a corner. Punters are crying out for a fair place to bet, yet the Tote remains an afterthought due to 14.25% to 25% takeout rates. The 10% Solution Why isn't the National Tote launching with a legislated 10% flat takeout? Instant Dominance: A 10% Tote becomes the best value product in the Australian betting marketplace. Liquidity returns because the "churn" actually allows punters to survive. Corporates thrive by offering "Tote+" because your takeout is so high. At 10%, they cannot afford to top-dress your price without bleeding out. You reclaim your own product as the premium benchmark. The Generational Cliff The Hard Truth is that Younger punters aren't "loyal." They hunt for best prices, speed, and options. TAB is currently surviving on a "rusted-on" demographic that is aging out of the market. If the National Tote launches with the same old 14% to 25% handicap, it is DOA for anyone under 40. A 10% takeout isn't a "loss," it is an invitation. 10% of a massive, thriving pool beats 15% of a ghost town every day of the week. This is the only way to attract a new generation that currently sees the Tote as a dinosaur with no value proposition. The Final Boss End the Rebate Shadow-Economy: Stop subsidising a few select "whales" with back-room deals. Transparency creates trust, and trust creates liquidity. Where is the lobbying? To get to 10% the TAB needs to stop being a passive tax collector and start being an advocate for the product. They should be petitioning State Governments to overhaul the legislative takeout structures that are currently choking the life out of the Tote. The argument to Treasurers is simple: You are taxing a dying pool. Total tax revenue is on a slide to zero. 10% of a massive, thriving, high-turnover National Tote provides more for the industry and the state than 15% of a product that younger generations refuse to touch. Is the National Tote a survival strategy, or a managed decline for the benefit of Corporate Bookmakers? If you just merge three weak pools into one, you aren't solving the problem, you are just making the exit more visible. Be bold. Drop the rate. Reclaim the market. 🏇💨 #NationalTote #Wagering #Punting #TheGreatGame #TAB

@RWAStewards Add Bannered - Cross over nose band?

PINJARRA SCARPSIDE 27/04 – Late Gear Changes Race 5: (6) SPECIAL COUNSEL – Ear Muffs (Pre-Race Only) ON Race 7: (8) KAT FIVE – Pads (Off-Fore Only) ON Race 8: (6) ASTRO WORLD – Tongue Tie ON #waracing

Join us tomorrow at Ascot Racecourse for ANZAC Day Raceday - with FREE entry for all. 🙌 Gates open from 12:00pm, with a special ANZAC Day Ceremony at 12:30pm as we come together to remember and reflect. On the track, it’s a quality program headlined by the $125,000 Listed Sheila Gwynne Classic and the $100,000 Diggers Cup. 🏇

@betsy_com_au Not many on twitter makes sense but its always hard to disagree with what Matt has to say

Racing is funded by punters. Yet we still make it harder than it should be to access what should be basic info. Reduce the friction. Build confidence. Watch engagement grow. If we get this right, everything else follows 👇 betsy.com.au/racing-punters…

From orphan foal to Melbourne Cup hero. The untold story of champion Half Yours and his Cup miracle betsy.com.au/half-yours-fos…

@racingblogger Add Darwin Cup, Warrnambool carnival, Cairns amateurs, Birdsville Cup. Get the true Aussie flavour

I’ve never had more fun than I’ve had on Australian racecourses and that’s a fact. I’ve been to plenty of meetings all around the world, the banter bus is phenomenal here.

@MunsieGlenn @storm @NRL @ladbrokescomau Totally different roster. They were stacked with future champions back then.

Last time @storm lost 5 matches in a row was 2012 & they went on to win the @NRL Premiership! Anyone want some of tge $17 on offer @ladbrokescomau for them to repeat that effort this year?

@WolfdenApp @ladbrokescomau Sir Delius then Via then Half Yours then AG

WHO IS YOUR CURRENT HORSE OF THE YEAR? FULL SHOW: THE SATURDAY SET EP 133: QUOKKA/ALL AGED STAKES DAY! youtu.be/mPPXNiNs1t4

@J_Walter23 Chips in Hay List.

Don't think any of them would have got near SUNLINE when she was in that kind of mood #Monster

@RVStewards Do we have a jockey declared for the dual engagement in race 5 Donald?

@davepband @dannynoeljackso We always had base rating & would adjust that for balance by anchoring a runner or close to, but then look at factors like wet tracks & seeing your case 1.6=1L then maybe going 1.2 for big margin wet track race. Would also go through look all past ratings for 3 mths for accuracy

I'd only ever use an adjustment factor for my own personal decision making on where to forecast a runner in a future race. Certainly wouldn't incorporate it into the rating process, or - like you say - the process itself would become flawed. But I want to know whether - on average - a given race has produced better or worse form than my original rating forecasted. It'll be noisy in small samples, I'd imagine, but again - a matter for the individual analyst on whether to look at it.

My ratings and sectional review of the Queen Elizabeth Stakes from Randwick, Saturday 11/4/26. Did Autumn Glow fail at the 2000m? Personally, I don't think she failed. I think she fell short of some lofty expectations in a race of very high quality and intensity. formking.com.au

@davepband @dannynoeljackso Just be careful though. Being too positive or negative can do a concertina affect for future ratings and worth doing a review of all ratings for a state so they may not be above/below a sd

I can't argue with that. I am sometimes perhaps a little pessimistic on extremely strong tempo races, as they can often set up artificially strong ratings. In this case I haven't been though, because a lot was given back late and I account for that as well, in my own way. I am starting to become a lot more interested in what the ratings out of these races have become, and rather than change an old rating, what I plan on doing is giving people an "adjustment factor" next to each past run, that reflects the "reasonable" difference in subsequent ratings. I think I'm doing everything consistently enough for this to be a really helpful addition.

@J_Walter23 I think she race very well myself. But can see the point that if you have a 77% implied probability of winning then was that a failure. And in hindsight of a proven G1 2000m horse like SD, maybe she should have been more like $2.00-$2.20 as no stage did she have control.

AUTUMN GLOW failed?? Please…. She ran out of her skin. They have gone flat out for nearly the entire race. SIR DELIUS has gone like an absolute beast. LINDERMANN was given an incredible ride under the circumstances. Ran on pace assisted to grab her late. He’s no slouch. She was right there chasing Sir Delius from the 600m mark. Certainly naive to say 2000m is likely her optimal distance, and certainly not further. But she didn’t fail #QueenElizabethStakes