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Ciclo 1🤝 Ciclo 2 🤝 Ciclo 3 🤝 Ciclo4 230k 10/2025? 👀

JUST IN: 🇷🇺🇮🇷 Russia is providing Iran with intelligence on US ship and aircraft locations, Washington Post reports.

On Khamenei: We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here. I know some of you disagree and prefer that we list these markets without a death carveout because it keeps the rules simple and because many traditional markets, like oil futures, can be proxy markets for war and death. But we believe that’s different than having a market directly settling on someone’s death, which is not allowed for US regulated entities. What’s the point of the market, then? A market on Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader was important because leadership changes in Iran have major impact on the world order: • geopolitical implications • economic consequences • national security considerations • oil and commodity prices, many of which move based on news and expectations around this outcome And it’s always possible for a ruler to step down or transition power without death, even in autocracies. It just happened in Venezuela. In these instances, we make the caveat clear in the rules and in the market page, but today is a good learning that we can do more in terms of improving the UX and adding more ways to surface the rules. We are committed to improving. In the meantime, here’s what we’re going to do: • We are reimbursing all fees from this market • If you have a position from before Khamenei died, you will be paid out on the last-traded price before his death. (This was clear in our rules) • If you have a position from after he died, we’re going to fully reimburse your cost of entry

Buenos días ☕️

What if we get a blood monday 👀 BTC under 62k at 7c...

The 320-339 range is at 4c (was 2c just a bit ago), which feels like a big mispricing to me considering he’s dropped 20-40 tweets in this window several times before. No need to say it’s risky, right? But honestly, it should probably be sitting at 15c at least.