Kimberly Mackey

Year-over-year shift in home prices, by ZIP Code Map via @ResidentialClub

See you there!

Register: us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regist…

BIG ONE-DAY MORTGAGE RATE DROP The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 5.99% Same day last year: 7.15% ------------------ 10-year Treasury yield today: 4.17% Spread today: 182 bps 👀

Mortgage spreads are now only 0.25% basis points away from getting back to normal 🎄🎅❄️⛄

If you only attend one SMPH this year, this is the one. Join us Wednesday to get a head start on 2026. Register at linktr.ee/NewHomesSoluti…

Break through the noise and the fear to help your buyers understand today's opportunities. Join us LIVE on Tuesday to get your specific questions answered. Register at Newhomessolutions.com/head-to-head

Happy Halloween! 👻👽🦇

@FlyTPA @Delta I know it was on the airline and their crew. But you add in the air traffic and weather delays to this and it almost makes me not want to visit Phoebe as often! At least I was not wearing crocs! 😉😉

@KimberlyDMackey @Delta Hi, Kimberly - We're sorry to hear about this. We encourage you to check directly with Delta as they are responsible for ground handling. We're wishing you safe travels.

@FlyTPA @Delta It took me longer to fly from ATL last night than it would have to drive it. I get delays, those happen. Not figuring out how to park a plane at a gate for 1.5 hours is NOT the sort of thing one expects @FlyTPA That is usually reserved Phoenix or JFK! Do better pls

@NewsLambert @michaelmiraflor OMG! You are clearly overdue for a vaca! *May I suggest driving to said vaca locale because flying is too stressful with DC closed.

@michaelmiraflor you’re right. I got carried away. Let’s just do one giant parking lot instead.

hear me out

Builders: Struggling to get traffic? Join us tomorrow to learn about this powerful traffic conversion tool that builders of any size can do. @hiveologie us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regist…

@NewsLambert All due respect to KB Home, but getting a mortgage with a buy down is NOT like during the pandemic when people were over, paying and putting large sums of cash down. Most of these buyers would be priced out were it not for these buy-downs. Buy downs=more buying power.

"I believe that there are [builder] customers that are overpaying for the home to effectively get an incentive... They may potentially be upside down when they try to sell that home," - KB Home COO Rob McGibney told analysts back in June x.com/NewsLambert/st…

@RickPalaciosJr And, if this isn't a home someone plans on living in for more than 7 years, why wouldn't they take advantage of these ARM rates. If things change, puerile can always refi. Smart!

Adjustable rate mortgages are already ~5.75% and if/when the Fed cuts 25bps in September, they’ll hit 5.5%. We know from surveying owners & renters for several years this is the ‘magic mortgage rate’ to get people off the fence, especially those locked in at legacy low rates. I’ve been talking this SOFR/ARM rate setup through w/clients the last month, which Rob summarizes in this excerpt @rbrtrmstrng. Assuming the yield curve continues steepening and 10-year rates (thus 30-yr mortgage) stays elevated as Fed cuts (our base case scenario), you could see ARMs at closer to 5%-5.25% by end of 2025 but 30-year mortgage stubbornly sticky at 6%+.  That wide of a spread b/w ARMs and 30-year mortgage will get some folks off the sidelines, and I anticipate the share of ARMs overall crossing above double-digits.  Also, ARMs aren’t underwritten like the subprime ‘fog a mirror, get a loan days’, and credit quality is much better following Dodd-Frank. Most ARMs are also 7-year fixed period, which doesn’t require being underwritten at an indexed + spread reset rate, so easier to qualify on. Homebuilders like ARMs too since it’s cheaper to buy the rate down vs. doing so on full term of 30-year fixed mortgage.  Lastly, first-time homebuyers today in their early to mid-30s were in high school when ARMs wreaked havoc on the economy and housing market. The scars many of us in the industry since then carry with us weigh less heavily on the ARM vs 30-year mortgage decision. Bottom line: ARMs are coming back as the Fed cuts and housing will benefit (at least in the near term). Some upside momentum to what has been a rough year so far for homebuilders and the resale market.

@randywise1 Hi Micki!!! So glad you are there to add to the Randy Wise Team!

@NewsLambert Limited reports of challenges getting some lighting fixtures and some appliances. Could this mean we are burning through Q1 stockpiles? Slower demand allowed those to last longer? Just now starting to feel it?

I think you're right that softened construction / material demand is playing a role. The other big thing is that the bulk of residential construction materials are domestically sourced And much of what does come from outside the U.S. comes from Canada + Mexico—which so far have been spared from some of the bigger tariff increases (Canadian lumber is a different story given its annual Department of Labor review)

“Tariffs have not had a meaningful impact to our horizontal costs. And in fact, these costs have moderated and access to trades has eased” - Erik Heuser, COO of Taylor Morrison, on their July 23, 2025 earnings call