Degen Ape Trader@DegenApe99
How to trade @Polymarket Up or Down 5-minute markets?
After many tests while developing EVPoly, I figured out a reality check.
It is all randomness.
No technical analysis, price action, or orderbook structure can help you predict the outcome of the next 5 minutes.
It's a coin flip. Whether you do deep calculations or not, after a large number of trades, it all reverts to 50/50.
So there is no edge to predict the future.
On top of that, the new fee structure increases your inventory cost by ~1%.
If you do 50/50 coin flips, you are losing money in the long term.
So how to deal with that?
Two solutions:
- Take advantage of other traders who think they can predict the future
- Take the trade when the outcome is 99.5% on your side (and you pay 99c)
These two strategies will come with EVPoly, the new @EVplusAI product this week.