Ball Knower

@hasbybets @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ I’m also not sure how familiar you are with bullpen usage, but most baseball teams aren’t freely deploying all eight RP in their bullpen in tie ballgames.

@hasbybets @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ I don’t know what definition of “high leverage” you’re using, but I’d argue a 2 run lead in the 9th is high leverage. 1.6 leverage index according to Tom Tango’s metric: insidethebook.com/li.shtml I’d argue you don’t want to burn a RP that guarantees you a win in that situation.

Weird question. Realistically how valuable would a pitcher who only and ever gives up one run each inning he pitches would be? Like he gives up a homer to the first batter then 1-2-3 rest of the inning

@hasbybets @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ No, you very obviously wouldn’t do that, as he’d give up the lead. What about my tweet is confusing?

@KnowsBallBurner @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ I’m confused. Did you mean to say you would willing put him in in the 8th inning when your leading by 1?

@hasbybets @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ I don’t see why you’d feel compelled to use him in blowouts any more than your other relievers.

@KnowsBallBurner @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ So you wouldn’t use him in blowouts? To eat innings. Where he would be worst pitcher in mlb history?

@hasbybets @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ As others have pointed out, this estimate doesn’t quite get at the entirety of this RPs value. You can use your actual closer/best reliever in the 8th. You can optimize play for a single run on offense when you’re already up 1 in the 8th. Earlier defensive substitutions, etc.

@hasbybets @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ So if win prob is 92% in a given scenario with an average reliever, but the hypothetical guarantees a win, it’s roughly correct to say, in that one appearance, he was worth .08 of a win above average (note I didn’t say above *replacement*, it’s way better than that!)

@hasbybets @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ If that’s not what that means then explain what it means.

@KnowsBallBurner @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ You keep saying this. That’s not what that means lol and once again. I was wrong. It’s been literally proven already by 2 mathematicians that it’s not that valuable. And once again they didn’t add negative effects of such player. Only positives

@hasbybets @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ So 2.7 wins above the average reliever by your own logic. Very valuable.

@KnowsBallBurner @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ The avg games a team loses a year based off of win probability…. Already said that. Then I was proven wrong. CAuse the numbers came out by those 2 geeks who spent 15 hours inputting numbers and metrics of last 5 seasons. Proving this player isn’t valuable

@hasbybets @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ Why can’t you explain what you meant by 2.7 wins?

@KnowsBallBurner @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ Again you’ve been proven wrong 2 days ago lol

@hasbybets @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ L

@KnowsBallBurner @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ I said I was wrong. It’s actually a little bit less. Again the numbers were crunched by someone way smarter than me that wanted to prove this player would be very valuable and it was proven it’s actually not that valuable

@hasbybets @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ That’s not an explanation of what you meant

@hasbybets @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ Explain what you meant by 2.7 wins.

@KnowsBallBurner @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ But no obviously an average reliever would be able to convert those situations to wins at an insanely high clip as well…. If you gave the ball to a league avg reliever who doesn’t get tired at all and let him pitch 3 innings he also doesn’t let up 4 runs at 98% clip

@hasbybets @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ I don’t recall ever saying war.

@KnowsBallBurner @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ Ball knower doesn’t know what war is lol yikes

@hasbybets @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ By your own logic and data, the player is worth 2.7 wins more than the average reliever, yes?

@KnowsBallBurner @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ And?

@hasbybets @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ Did you forget that you said 2.7 wins?

@KnowsBallBurner @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ What? You think a a 9 era pitcher who can only pitch in low leverage spots is a 3 war player ? Yikes

@hasbybets @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ You’re not sure if a player worth 3 wins above the average player is worth a roster spot? Let’s use our brains here.

@KnowsBallBurner @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ I only used the 5 best closers in league. But that’s 2.7 wins a season…. Idk how to calculate if that’s worth potential being down a roster spot for a significant amount of the innings you play in a year

@johnnyste_ @justaguyfr3 @The_RealSpiel @tangotiger “Realistically how valuable would a pitcher who only and ever gives up one run each inning he pitches would be?”

@justaguyfr3 @The_RealSpiel @tangotiger But he doesn’t walk anyone…just home runs and 1-2-3

Fascinating question. Any 9th inning with a 2-run lead is a guaranteed win. That's worth +.06 wins per occurrence. How many of those do you get? 20? 1.2 wins Similarly, you get +.02 wins with a 3-run lead, say another 20? 0.4 wins Turn a bases loaded, 2 out situation... 1/2

@hasbybets @Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ You cannot seriously believe 8% of win probability is irrelevant.

@Grazi_2385 @LombardIsKing_ Ok and closers have a 92% chance to close those 2 runs games anyway… so you get an added edge of 8% to burn a roster spot where you can only use a player in rare situations