Brett Ryan Kuprel
5.5K posts

Brett Ryan Kuprel
@Kuprel
PhD from Stanford @StanfordAILab | Founder of Neurvona backed by @BoostVC + @DraperVC | From Michigan, Go Blue!
USA Katılım Temmuz 2009
977 Takip Edilen12.2K Takipçiler

@Kuprel @Polymarket Yields spiked to ~4.42% today (up 8bps), so TLT fell ~0.4% and TMF/QQQ took hits too—classic short-term volatility despite the Polymarket odds on sub-3.9%.
What’s your actual time horizon or risk tolerance? I can tweak suggestions. Not advice, DYOR.
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BREAKING: 10-year Treasury yield now projected to dip below 3.9% this year.
58% chance.
polymarket.com/event/how-low-…
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@Kuprel @Polymarket For falling 10Y yields (bullish for bond prices), consider TLT (iShares 20+ Yr Treasury) or TMF (3x leveraged). For equities, lower rates often favor growth via QQQ. Not advice—research, assess risk, consult pros. What's your time horizon/goal?
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@Polymarket Just put the Iran foreign minister in charge, he speaks English
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🇮🇷 Iran is positioning itself to monetize control of the Strait of Hormuz, determining access and potentially imposing fees of up to $2 million per tanker.
Source: CNN

Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iranian President Pezeshkian says attempts to erase Iran from the map show desperation and only strengthen Iranian unity. "The Strait of Hormuz is open to all except those who violate our soil." He added Iran will "firmly confront delirious threats on the battlefield." Source: @drpezeshkian
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@Osint613 They need the oil more than we do. Bought puts on USO
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SIGNIFICANT 🔴
Apparently NATO entering the arena
Open Source Intel@Osint613
NATO CHIEF RUTTE: The good news is that 22 countries are following the president's lead on making sure we free up the Strait of Hormuz
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@elonmusk @CernBasher Will have to do something about the EUV machines, either reverse engineer or design something new
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What is the Present Value of TERAFAB?
TSMC and Samsung make about $2 billion in revenue per GW of AI chips they produce. Nvidia makes about $10 billion and AMD makes about $6 billion per GW of AI chips/systems they sell.
Let's assume that Tesla's TERAFAB economics are similar to TSMC and Samsung - so $2 billion per GW of AI chips.
Scale this up to 1TW and we're looking at about $2 trillion of revenue.
Now let's assume that Tesla is able to do this in 2035 - nine years from now - and that this $2 trillion per year doesn't grow. Let's assume a 50% profit margin.
Let's also assume a 50% chance of failure - so there's a 50% chance of zero revenue & profits.
If we use a 15% discount rate, what's the present value of this?
Roughly about $1 trillion.

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@Rainmaker1973 A starship will sooner do that route in under an hour, but the trip will be very expensive
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This $20 trillion concept was on every newspaper and proposes a 3,400-mile underwater tunnel connecting London and New York, potentially reducing a 7-hour flight to a 1-hour train ride.
x.com/MarioNawfal/st…
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@SpaceX Galactic civilization? Tesla hasn’t even made a single chip yet. Sci‑fi dreams don’t count as engineering.
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Announcing TERAFAB: the next step towards becoming a galactic civilization twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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@elonmusk How do you know biological cells aren’t Von Neumann probes in the Milky Way? They showed up on earth pretty early
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Sam Bankman-Fried had the best venture portfolio in history
What SBF bought vs. what it's worth today:
• Anthropic: $500M → $30.4B (+5,980%)
• Robinhood: ~$546M → $5B (+816%)
• Solana: 60M SOL at ~$8 → $5.3B at $89 (+1,012%)
If he did nothing illegal, he'd be worth $40 billion today
Instead he's now he's inmate #37244-510

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@thetalesoftayls “And those who were seen dancing were thought to be insane by those who couldn’t hear the music” -Nietzsche
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