parody：Lucas Barrin 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

Earlier this morning while discussing gold’s outlook with a few friends, I expected a bounce from around 4055 up to the 4085–4090 zone. It ultimately topped out near 4082 before turning back down, but that still offered over 15 points of profit upside. On a 1 lot position, every single point represents $100 in profit price is currently hovering around 4050, right near the two day average not a great entry point right here. Have your demo accounts ready; as soon as a solid entry opportunity presents itself, I will broadcast an updated trading signal

To date, CGNX is down a modest 2%, compared to a drawdown of over 30% across the semiconductor sector as a whole reaffirming its role as one of our primary safe havens. Holding this position hasn't yielded massive profits, but it has successfully shielded your portfolio from heavy losses #CGNX

What many people fail to understand is why Tesla sold a record number of cars in Q2 with a 26% revenue increase, yet its operating profits plummeted. Where did all that money go? Today, let's talk strictly about this earnings report The issue facing Tesla right now isn't that its cars aren't selling it's that Musk is taking all the cash earned from the automotive business to feed his expanding AI empire. Looking closely at this report reveals a striking paradox. Tesla’s Q2 revenue reached $28.24 billion, beating market expectations, with trailing 12-month revenue crossing the $100 billion threshold for the first time. Vehicle deliveries hit 480,000 units (up 25% year over year), automotive revenue grew by 23%, and the services business surged by 50%. On the surface, everything looks fantastic However, adjusted EPS came in at just $0.33 a third lower than market expectations. Operating profit shrank to $400 million, the operating margin dropped from 4.1% to 1.4%, and free cash flow turned negative to -$1.1 billion The real red flag in this earnings report isn't a sudden collapse in the car business; it's the rapid surge in operating expenses. AI R&D, the Robotaxi fleet, Optimus production lines, Cybercab scaling, in-house chip design, and compute infrastructure every single project is burning capital well in advance In Q2 alone, Tesla's capital expenditures hit $5.79 billion. Management expects full year 2026 capex to exceed $25 billion, with continued growth expected over the next two to three years, alongside arrangements for up to $30 billion in debt financing. Musk has called this the fastest industrial scale expansion in the U.S. since World War II What exactly is this $25 billion buying? FSD and Robotaxi: Tesla's global paid FSD user base is approaching 1.5 million (up 56% year over year) In North America, 55% of new vehicle deliveries now have FSD enabled, with 45% opting for the subscription model. This shows Tesla is actively transitioning from one time hardware sales to recurring software revenue Robotaxi is also producing more concrete metrics: management stated that unsupervised Robotaxis have logged over 380,000 miles across six cities in two states without any notable incidents. That progress is commendable. However, 380,000 miles is still far from proving large-scale commercial viability. What truly bears watching next is fleet size, paid ride volume, operating cost per mile, and the pace of regulatory approvals across more cities Optimus:Optimus carries even greater upside than Robotaxi, but scaling its manufacturing is vastly more difficult. Musk admitted that Optimus may be the hardest product to mass produce in Tesla's history because a vast majority of the humanoid components lack an existing supply chain actuators, dexterous hands, and flexible circuits all require ground up redesigns Tesla is currently setting up its first generation Optimus assembly line at the Fremont factory on the former Model S and Model X line. Yet Musk acknowledged that the initial production ramp curve will be long and flat. Right now, Optimus acts more like a long-term call option rather than a business segment that can support current earnings In House Chips and Compute: Tesla doubled its training compute capacity in the first half of the year, with the Cortex2 facility drawing over 115MW of power while pushing forward with A14, A15, and A16 chip designs. Musk even suggested that without its own TeraFab, future Optimus production could be bottlenecked by a shortage of AI chips There is nothing wrong with this strategic logic: to lead in real-world AI, Tesla must simultaneously control data, models, chips, compute, and manufacturing. But that is precisely where the challenge liesevery single link in that chain is extraordinarily expensive, and every project carries execution and delay risks When Morgan Stanley gave Tesla a $417 target price, they valued the legacy automotive business at just $47 meaning nearly 90% of the company's valuation relies on future initiatives like FSD, Robotaxi, the energy network, and Optimus. That is what makes Tesla so difficult to value You can't simply judge the company by its $398 million quarterly operating profit, because it is genuinely building a future that could dwarf its car business. But you also can't blindly buy into the dream Elon sells, because Robotaxi has yet to generate scaled profits, Optimus is still building out its supply chain, and proprietary chip fabs remain far from fully validated. Ultimately, buying Tesla stock is buying Elon Musk If you believe Musk can deliver on Robotaxi, Optimus, proprietary chips, and AI manufacturing one by one, you will view today's compressed margins and negative cash flow as the bedrock of a future empire. If you don't believehim, you'll feel the market has already priced in far too much unearned profit. In my view, Tesla's direction of investing heavily in AI is correct, and its core automotive foundation hasn't collapsed. However, the current execution and monetization speed of Robotaxi and Optimus simply aren't matching such a high valuation valuation. Should you still buy or hold TSLA? Going forward, watch three key indicators: 1. Can paid FSD user numbers keep growing? 2. Can Robotaxi begin generating verifiable revenue? 3. Can Optimus move beyond the experimental assembly line? I am willing to track the blueprint Musk has laid out for the long haul. But until these future ventures actually start generating cash, I don't possess enough faith in Musk to pay upfront for all those promises on behalf of the market. If you do, you aren't wrong you just need to endure the near term volatility and pain, which won't be easy. Nobody can tell you how much lower it might drop or how long the wait will be; that is a risk you must carry yourself

A while back, Apple defied the trend after reporting earnings. Even though its profit dipped, its cash flow remained rock solid, and the market quickly repriced it after a lower opening By the same logic, SPCX hitting consecutive new lows recently boils down to the exact same core issue

So as you can see, the market's real fear isn't whether these companies can make money it's when the massive cash burned in this AI arms race will actually start yielding returns. If rate hikes return and the tide goes out, companies with poor cash flow might not survive the next cycle

If we revisit the recent mega cap tech earnings, you'll see what the market is actually worried about. Oracle beat estimates with over $500 billion in backlog, but short term cash flow pressure dragged the stock down from $140 to $120. It's a similar story for Tesla and Google Google is also sitting on over $500 billion in backlog with AI capex exceeding expectations, yet the stock still dropped 6%

NVO remains an attractive entry point around the $48–49 level. For those who are already in the position, there’s no need to add more shares. We’ll wait for the potential rebound in the coming week #NVO

FIG opened lower today. Based on our plan, if it falls to the $20–21 level, we’ll add 10% more to our position. If you haven’t entered the trade yet, the $22–23 range is still a reasonable entry point #FIG

Crude oil prices are rising, but the upward trend will not last. Higher oil prices conflict with broader economic policies, so even if they breach $76, they are bound to pull back. When trading the energy sector, be cautious about going long

The gold market is still fluctuating within the 4,000–4,100 range, so the strategy remains to short on rallies. Quantitative returns are expected to be slightly higher than last week, and the losses from the stock market can be offset in the gold market

CRWV retested the support at its previous low this week and confirmed its validity. We should see a rebound starting from this level over the next 2-3 weeks. Current resistance sits at 95-100; once it breaks through this level, the next target will be 120

Congratulations to our friends who added shares of CGNX yesterday. CGNX is rising with the market rebound. Continue to hold until the next opportunity to add more