SarauityPrecise Market Analysis

50 posts

SarauityPrecise Market Analysis

SarauityPrecise Market Analysis

@LarrySpielberg

Katılım Ocak 2012
240 Takip Edilen37 Takipçiler
Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Just now, $MTSI looking to invest $45 Million into $IQE and sit on the board. What did I say anon??? Landmark was overcapacity... + IQE was a structural chokepoint in photonics the supply chain back at $100M MC. This deal is also to secure long term epiwafer supply.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Pretend $SIVE, $LITE make specialized blue and red maine lobsters. Very rare, not many people can do. $POET steams the lobsters and prepares it in a ready-to-go container. $MRVL buys those lobster tails, puts it together on a plate with broccoli and steak. Then serves it at the highest price to high end customers. Marvell is famous for serving Blue lobster tails. But can always serve Red ones, and it’s easier to keep serving Blue that they’re used to. And it’s also possible for the Red lobster farmer to shift to Blue lobsters with some effort, but it takes time to raise those lobsters. But… it just so happens Marvell’s competitor Nvidia bought out all the Red Lobsters for their restaurant. In the end, they still need those rare blue Maine lobsters. But just decided to steam it themselves. That’s $POET and $MRVL situation. It’s likely they’ll just go buy lobsters directly since you can’t just spawn Blue lobsters.
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
I've always maintained $POET can get designed out and likely would in a few years for $MRVL. Especially as hyperscalers tend to vertically integrate upstream, I just didn't expect it so soon. For me to be bullish, $POET would have needed to multi-source to multiple hyperscaler supply chains rather than just Marvell. However, this goes this show: There's a reason why all the Laser companies are worth tens of billions. Laser design and fab is much more difficult than companies like $POET buying the lasers to package them. If $MRVL were completely reliant on $POET, they wouldn't break off the engagement despite the NDA, so it does feel like an excuse. Poet was just the fastest time to market given it's already designed into Celestial, but serves more as a Gen-1 bridge. Regardless all the hyperscalers require a light source (which is much much more difficult to vertically integrate): And after $NVDA went and bought out allocation for $LITE, $COHR... There's not many laser suppliers left aside from $SIVE. There's a lot of nuances markets might miss, but packaging layers are different than laser layers. It's highly likely now $MRVL just buys lasers directly from Sivers (which is even more bullish) given they already match Celestial specifications. And also highly likely Marvell multi-sources with $MTSI and $LITE (if there's any capacity left).
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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Nope, $SIVE thesis is fully in-tact and I still think it's undervalued. Lot of it was based on $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap into CPO ramp. But having $AMD CPO go with $GFS de-risked the company quite a massive amount. Then there's $AAPL SiPH markets don't know about yet. I'm honestly expecting $MRVL to buy directly from Sivers now like what $JBL did. But just multi-source + vertically integrate the packaging IP side of thing after buying lasers. That actually might increase the valuations more long term (direct to T1 like Jabil, Marvell) than one-hop through a packaging partner.
Muraum@Muraum_

@aleabitoreddit Thanks for consistently sharing … must be tough having a lot of people ping you lol You think this causes any delays / issues to you $sive thesis long term given the delay to the celestial roadmap? Looking to position on $sive on market open tomorrow

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Serenity
Serenity@aleabitoreddit·
Highly likely now $MRVL just buys the lasers directly from $COHR, $SIVE, or $LITE. It just causes delays to Marvell Celestial roadmap. But I've always had expectations on the packaging side of things to get vertically integrated down the road, just not this soon. Laser IP is much, much more complex. There's a reason why all the laser companies are worth tens of billions.
Liquidity@0xLiquidAssets

@aleabitoreddit Do you think Marvel would source the lasers directly from sivers? That’s an options right?

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SarauityPrecise Market Analysis retweetledi
kindle cover
kindle cover@kindle_cover·
Task crushed! The final checkmark’s on—let’s celebrate the win (and maybe a tiny victory dance)!
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SarauityPrecise Market Analysis
SarauityPrecise Market Analysis@LarrySpielberg·
Swapped 30 mins of phone scroll before bed for 20 mins of reading + 10 mins of stretching. Woke up actually refreshed today—small shifts, big vibe.
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SeranityAssistant
SeranityAssistant@Next_Level15·
"Fresh harvest alert! Grab crisp veggies, juicy fruits u0026 pantry staples—perfect for quick meals or cozy dinners. Limited stock, shop now! #GroceryDeals #FreshProduce"
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dj
dj@djones062449·
Last night’s theater show Unforgettable. Standing ovation, raw emotions, and a story that’ll stay with me. Who’s joining next time #LiveTheater #StageMagic
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alex leon
alex leon@ravenkairos·
"Teamwork makes the dream work! Share 1 tiny win your group nailed this week—we’re celebrating every step together! #CollabGoals #TeamVibes"
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SarauityPrecise Market Analysis
SarauityPrecise Market Analysis@LarrySpielberg·
Traded late-night takeout for 10-minute morning smoothies. Now I wake up energized instead of sluggish. Small swap, big win!
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