Legal Phil

If you describe what is occurring in the US as a “coup” or “fascism,” or refer to the elected government as a “regime” (left or right), I have deep contempt for you. Your cosplaying as oppressed makes light of the suffering of those who have lived under actual authoritarianism.

@PincherMartin8 @nobodyknows2322 @MikeRathbone86 @NotPJORourke I guess that I should add that a variation of the first and third options is to kill enough leadership that you get far enough down that you find someone more pragmatic. Thus, the "regime" survives, but more in a Gulf model. It is not implausible, but also depends on some luck.

@PincherMartin8 @nobodyknows2322 @MikeRathbone86 @NotPJORourke I also think that this is why the leadership strikes are so important, even though people dismiss them. Less experienced leadership, with less committed allies, are easier to take down.

Of course Tehran is losing, but will an air war result in regime change? If not, then what does it matter? Most of Iran's conventional capabilities can be quickly rebuilt after the war, other than perhaps its navy - and before this war I didn't know we were that concerned by the Iranian navy.

@nobodyknows2322 @PincherMartin8 @MikeRathbone86 @NotPJORourke Exactly. I believe 8 months passed after the end of operations there for Milosevic to fall.

@Legal_Fil @PincherMartin8 @MikeRathbone86 @NotPJORourke Kosovo was kinda like this, too, including in the delayed reaction re: regime change

Sir you are dead!

finger roll in this spot is so crazy

The New York Times will not put this on their front page because their customers would punish the paper severely for popping their Manichaean self-delusion.

Look, I don't blame people for being skeptical of any plans, but this has strong "we've tried nothing and are all out of ideas" energy.

Have they considered the possibility that they do not see a realistic way of reopening the Strait because they "are not looking at sending naval assets until the conflict eases"?

Some thoughts (mostly responses to criticism) on how Operation Epic Fury is going: 1. The WH communication strategy (if they even have one) has been totally abysmal. This is more a political comment than a military or geopolitical one, but it's important. But I will offer a counterpoint: what on earth could this WH have communicated instead that would have worked for them? Both of our major parties are becoming increasingly anti-Semitic; this is an even bigger problem with Democrats, but it exists across the political spectrum. 2. No matter how good or bad the war planning (military, economic, geopolitical, etc.), everyone needs to remember that the enemy also gets a say. And this particular enemy is insane and pure evil. Many war plans tend not to survive the first battle. This has been true of wars since ancient times. And in what is almost a footnote point, we had a golden opportunity to take out the enemy's top leadership, and we took it. We had to rush things just a bit, but we are far ahead of where we would have been otherwise. 3. The longer we would have waited, the worse this problem would have grown. Of course, some people -- way too many -- are just fine with Iran becoming the dominant Middle East power and even possessing nuclear weapons. There are a lot of people who think that Israel should not even exist and that a nuclear Iran is a means to that end. Some of them are open about it, others are being mendacious. If I have learned anything here in the last 2-3 years, it is that anti-Semitism is a much bigger problem than I ever knew. Some of it is religiously based (some strands of Christianity and Islamists alike); some of it is class envy, some of it is just plain racist. In each of these forms, it is an evil that we didn't purge from the world after the Holocaust. 4. War sometimes is the only way to solve problems like Iran. Nothing is easier than pointing out the bad shit that happens in war. The much harder thing is plotting out the likely moves if, instead, we do nothing and allow an enemy who has vowed to destroy Israel and America to acquire nuclear weapons and the ballistic missile capacity to deliver them. 5. As bad as the WH has been in their communications, both the IDF and our military have performed magnificently. 6. We need to stop our absolutely shameful and dishonorable treatment of Ukraine, who is proving to be a true friend and ally. And the rest of Europe needs to grow the fuck up and help us. It's their economic and geopolitical future as much as ours. Trump is testing them and so far many of them have failed the test. They're poking the wrong bear, and the longer they continue to do so, the worse it will be for them in a few weeks or months.

Giving up your law license so you can tweet is wild

I think it is pretty beyond debate at this point that Mamdani's wife is a terrorism sympathizer. And I don't know anyone who would be married to an open terrorism sympathizer who isn't one themselves.

Set aside that it is mildly disturbing that Trump is genuinely pulling numbers from his base that even Kim Jong Un couldn't manufacture, I don't know why anyone is surprised. Trump really is MAGA. People who think the Tucker et al have the pulse of it are simply ignorant.

In short, "I could drone someone in Tehran, and I wouldn't lose any voters."

La localisation du porte-avions français Charles de Gaulle rendue possible grâce à l'imprudence d'un marin utilisant l'application de running Strava, rapporte Le Monde. En faisant son footing sur le pont, il révélait la présence du navire.

lol of course

@liley_william I just think people need to keep the timeframe in mind, as that really does matter. They still have cards to play of course.

@liley_william Well, they expected to use terrorist proxies, as well as effect a more complete shutdown of Hormuz (i.e., mining). Yes, they can still effect a shutdown, but it is a more resolvable type now. And the bombing capacity has been significantly degraded in 17 days. 1/

In a sea of people offering specious arguments against the Iran war, Pincher is very sober minded. Even if you disagree—maybe especially so—I’d recommend checking him out.

Also depressing that some people actually thought otherwise.

Incredible.