Leili Doerr Riegel

Even though oil pulled back on hopes for U.S.-Iran talks, the underlying Middle East supply disruption has not really gone away. Asian supply remains tight, shipping is disrupted, and trade flows are still being reshaped. $XOM $CVX $SLB #Stocks #Energy #Oil #Inflation #Trading

Monday’s key focus: can the Strait of Hormuz truly reopen? Tanker flows, oil prices, and any new moves from the U.S. and its allies will directly shape global market sentiment. #Stocks #Hormuz #Oil #Shipping #Macr

$MOS fell 5.88% to $24.66 after Bank of America downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral and cut its price target from $33 to $30. The key issue is rising sulfur and ammonia costs tied to the Iran conflict, which could delay phosphate margin expansion by about a year. #MOS #CF

The scary part about fertilizer is not just higher prices — once global supply gets stuck, both pricing and expectations get repriced together. #Fertilizer #Commodities #SupplyChain #USStocks #Investing #Stocks

Bond markets are flipping—from pricing cuts to hikes. Signal: inflation is sticky, rates stay “higher for longer.” Impact: higher yields, rising funding costs, pressure on valuations (especially tech), stronger dollar, and more volatility #Fed #Bonds #Macro #Markets

$CF +2.38% vs $MOS -3.02%—divergence within fertilizers driven by structure. $CF (nitrogen) is tied to natural gas costs and steady ag demand, supporting margins; $MOS (potash/phosphate) is more exposed to global supply and export pricing

The low-cost gas model for urea is becoming fragile. Global disruptions are spreading beyond the Middle East—markets are shifting from pricing volatility to supply stability risk. $CF #Commodities #Energy #Fertilizer

Crude oil futures rose during the session. Iranian state television reported attacks on the South Pars gas field and the Asaluyeh facility—the market quickly priced in the geopolitical risks and potential supply disruptions. #oil #geopolitics #macroeconomics #markets

Fertilizer stocks have pulled back recently, but the structure remains intact with potential capital rotation back in. Next leg higher may be forming. $CF $MOS $NTR #Fertilizer #Commodities

$CF +2.98% | $MOS +4.61% — fertilizer sector strength with clear capital inflows. Improving price expectations and agricultural demand are supporting momentum; watch for follow-through and volume. #Fertilizer #Commodities #Agriculture

At Nvidia GTC, Jensen Huang said: “Structured data is the truth of AI.” AI progress depends not only on compute but also on data structure and quality. Nvidia $NVDA #AI #NVDA #Data #Tech #Stocks

$CF -4.42% $MOS -3.77% Funds appear to be shifting from the materials sector to the technology sector. #Stocks #ArtificialIntelligence #StockMarket #Investment

The Strait of Hormuz closure is sending shockwaves through fertilizer markets. Around 1/3 of global fertilizer supply flows through the region, while ~10% of polyethylene supply is affected. Fertilizer stocks are surging: $CF +36% since Feb 28 $MOS +14% this month

The Hormuz disruption is spreading beyond oil. Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) has started production cuts, shutting three lines as logistics disruptions hit exports and raw material supply. About 19% of its annual aluminum output is now affected.

$TSLA may be taking the next step in the AI race. Elon Musk says Tesla’s “Terafab” chip fab could launch within a week to support the AI5 autonomous driving chip. If Tesla moves into manufacturing, it would deepen its hardware moat in autonomous driving.

Macro shorts are building fast. Per Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage data: • ETF shorts +10% in one day • +23% month-to-date • Macro short exposure near a 5-year high Positioning now sits in the 97th percentile since 2020. Markets may be quietly pricing in bigger risks.

ETF shorts just posted their second-largest daily increase on record, per Goldman Sachs. Meanwhile ETFs have made up 35%+ of market trading for 9 straight sessions. The last time we saw this kind of activity, the VIX was above 70. a divergence traders are watching carefully.

$PLTR is one of the most controversial stocks in the AI market. Massive demand from AI and defense contracts keeps the growth story alive. But with such a premium valuation, even strong results might not be enough to impress the market. Great company. Debatable price.

@jimcramer The AI ecosystem has three layers: Chips Cloud Software Every layer will produce big winners.

Not buying the 2007 scenario...

@TrendSpider The AI cycle is reshaping the entire tech sector. Chips, cloud and software are all benefiting.

🚨 BREAKING: Mag 7