SOYBEANS: 7-day rally. 3-month highs.
No fresh 🇨🇳 buying.
So… what are we really pricing?
Here’s the story 👇
The market is running on headline juice: possible extension of the 🇺🇸–🇨🇳 truce, talk of a Trump–Xi meeting in April, funds piling into the long side.
That’s expectation. Not vessels.
Now the tape: weekly sales 282.8k mt.
Worst print of the MY. If demand was on fire, we’d see boats stacking up. We don’t
On the supply side, 🇧🇷 at 177.99 MMT (CONAB raised) and 🇦🇷 near 48 MMT. Big crops. Comfortable stocks. No tight balance sheet.
This rally is narrative-driven, not fundamental.
And when the story fades? Specs hit the exit. Fast.
Feels like a sell-the-rip setup brewing.
English
