Levers of Value

Can't imagine that pod shops are happy with this ft.com/content/3560d1…

@sshxbt insane

top 5 CNBC clips of all time

The equity check is too large as it stands now, and the debt load is likely too high for the pro forma company. If the synergies come in below the estimates, accretion get wiped out by the high interest expense. Can't rely on a synergies number to make the math work - what would be the downside case?

Proposal to acquire eBay. investor.gamestop.com/ebay

@ryancohen I think this is a really interesting idea, but I don't see how the math works. Model suggests 70% accretion by year 1. Most accretive acquisitions range from 5% to 20%. 70% is unheard of. I think you should find co investors (SWFs, etc) to reduce GME equity issuance.

High Templar Tech (NYSE:HTT) is a SHORT. An AI masquerading, prop trading vehicle, with abysmal governance and 0 value to the operating business. open.substack.com/pub/leversofva… #technology #shareholderactivism

excellent presentation by Starboard outlining their thesis on Fluor starboardvalue.com/wp-content/upl…

Note: Fluor's NuScale Sale. Fluor quietly closed the NuScale chapter, selling its remaining SMR stake for ~$473M and monetizing roughly $2.4B since Sept ’25. Hard not to see Starboard’s fingerprints here — activism pushed FLR to unlock NuScale value and pivot capital back toward its core E&C franchise

Sizable insider trades - April 21st - April 24th

Catalysts: -May 7th - Q1 2026 Earnings -Watch 800G qualification status closely in Q2 updates -Hyperscaler capex disclosure showing accelerated CPO-related orders or pull-ins of CPO ready switch platforms at the expense of pluggable allocations -Lumentum / Coherent CPO product launches with disclosed hyperscaler design -Q-by-Q order trajectory: watch for 800G / 1.6T order pushouts in 2H26 results - even modest deceleration could invalidate the bull narrative

Upside Risks: -CPO timeline slips to 2030+ -If hyperscalers pause CPO deployments due to thermal, reliability, or yield issues, the pluggable cycle extends and AAOI revenue growth further -AAOI announces a credible CPO product or strategic partnership with a switch ASIC vendor or hyperscaler -M&A - acquisition by Lumentum or Coherent, or a strategic takeout at a premium of 30% to 50% above current levels -CATV upcycle extends - Continued DOCSIS 4.0 and DAA spending pushes CATV revenue above $400mm, providing meaningful offset -800G capacity unlocks: If AAOI delivers on the 500k module / month YE 26 capacity target withs table pricing, FY 27 revenue could exceed $2BN

Pair Trade Idea Long: Amphenol (APH) Short: Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Both companies are picks and shovels levered to the AI buildout. But they are on the opposite side of the transition to co-packaged optics.