UK Abraham Accords Group@UKAbrahamAccord
DAILY BRIEFING- UK ABRAHAM ACCORDS GROUP
Friday 6th March 2026
Economic Impact
Brent Crude- $90.18 per barrel
LNG- 135.44 GBp/thm
Friday’s oil price rose during the day to $90 per barrel. European stocks rose whilst US futures were largely unchanged. Global equities are set for their biggest weekly drop in a year. Currencies have stabilised and the dollar has had its best week in a year as investors are pushed into assets considered safe havens from instability. Gas prices have jumped their highest since the start of the Ukraine war in 2022.
Europe’s stocks are up today but are set for large weekly drops. The pan-European STOXX 600 is up 0.45% today. The FTSE 100 is up 0.48% today, but has fallen 4.2% this week. This is, however, better than European indexes including France’s Cac 40 which is down 6% this week, and Germany’s Dax which is on track to be down 5.4%.
In the UK, economists have warned that if the war is not resolved until the end of the summer then interest rate cuts may be delayed by a year to control inflation- likely to remain around 3%. This cost of government borrowing continues to rise. Economists at Oxford Economics have said that UK energy bills could rise by 13.5% in July and push inflation up to 2.7% from 2.3%. The pound rose against the Euro 0.2% as traders forecast the likelihood of an interest rate cut to be less than 15%. The pound is 0.1% lower against the dollar.
In the US, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are down 0.3% and 0.54% respectively.
Japan’s Nikkei index is up 0.6% today, but set for a 5.5% weekly drop. The MSCI’s widest Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) index is set for a 6% weekly drop- the sharpest fall since March 2020.
The MSCI all-world stock index is on track to see a 2.6% weekly drop.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is down 90%. Asian countries are struggling to secure alternative energy supplies. The International Energy Agency has said there is currently no need to release emergency energy stockpiles. Japan, however, is reportedly considering using part of its national oil stockpile- worth around 146 days of oil consumption and 254 days of imports. 95% of Japan’s oil imports are from the Middle East, 70% comes through Hormuz. Surging oil prices are set to hit African economies hard.
The conflict is obstructing humanitarian aid efforts to places such as Gaza and Sudan. Land, air, and sea routes are constricted which is restricting and delaying lids saving shipments. For example, tents and tarpaulins for Gaza have become stuck in the supply chain. The WHO in Dubai has warned that its operations, such as polio vaccinations, are obstructed. This includes 50 emergency requests from 25 countries.
Summer holidays are likely to be much more expensive given the surging price of jet fuel.
Iran
State media announced that the Iranian armed forces had shot down two drones- one U.S. MQ-9 and one Israeli Hermes 900.
US Central Command reports Iranian ballistic missile attacks down 90% and drone attacks down 83% over the last 24 hours
President of Iran Masoud Pezeshkian said in a statement that mediation efforts to end the war had begun. The statement read: “some countries have begun mediation efforts. Let’s be clear: we are committed to lasting peace in the region yet we have no hesitation in defending our nation’s dignity and sovereignty. Mediation should address those who underestimated the Iranian people and ignited this conflict.” Pezeshkian added that Iran was “committed to lasting peace”.
In their fourth meeting, Iran’s temporary leadership council, which is chaired by Pezeshkian, made “necessary preparations” to select a new leader. A statement from the council read: “in this meeting, necessary preparations were made for convening the Assembly of Experts and selecting the country’s future leader”.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister claimed that Iran was not intentionally targeting Arab states, only US military bases and assets in their territory.
United States
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the “amount of firepower over Iran and over Tehran is about to surge dramatically”.
The first 36 hours of the operation against Iran consumed over 3,000 precision-guided munitions and interceptors, exposing a critical vulnerability in the supply chain. The US used 90 Patriot missiles, whilst Gulf states used 250.
The US Treasury has eased oil sanctions on Russia by giving a 30 day waiver to Indian refineries to buy the millions of barrels of Russian crude on floating storage, which is currently at sea.India gets 40% of its oil through Hormuz, making it vulnerable to energy supply shocks.
The Administration is set to meet with executives from major US defence firms, such as Lockheed Martin, to discuss boosting weapons production to replenish stocks used up by offensive and defensive operations against Iran.
The United States and South Korea are discussing moving US Patriot missile defence systems to the Middle East.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says that Americans can expect lower gas bills within weeks and that the US Navy will escort tankers through Hormuz ‘when reasonable’.
United Kingdom
British counter‑terrorism police arrested four men, including an Iranian national and three dual British‑Iranian citizens, in London on suspicion of conducting surveillance linked to Jewish community targets on behalf of Iran, the Metropolitan Police said.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer told King Hamad of Bahrain that the UK will deploy four jets to Bahrain for defensive air cover.
Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy, when asked if he was embarrassed by the UK’s response to the conflict said “Absolutely not.... we have F-35s, Typhoons in the sky taking down missiles as we speak and that has happened over Jordan, it’s happened over Qatar and of course, we will support nationals in the region. It’s also right to say that we coordinate with allies, the French, the Germans. Cyprus is a Nato ally [sic], so we coordinate also with other teams and other close allies on how we equip the area. HMS Dragon will be in the region in the coming weeks to further bolster and further support our air defences”.
Lammy added that RAF jets could legally strike Iran’s missile sites. Lammy said “It is entirely legal to protect our people and protect our staff, and therefore all operational capability is available to us in those circumstances”. Downing Street insist that this is not a U-turn and that their position remains unchanged.
British Wildcat helicopters will arrive in Cyprus today. The Wildcats are equipped with Martlet missiles which are capable of intercepting drones. Last year the Ministry of Defence ended 24/7 staffing at the naval base in Portsmouth, delaying the deployment of HMS Dragon to Cyprus.
Pete Hegseth, US Defense Secretary, announced that the US will use UK bases to “dramatically” increase the number of strikes on Iran. Hegseth said it was “unfortunate” that Britain did not initially approve the use of bases such as Diego Garcia for US military action.
Britain’s first repatriation flight from Muscat, Oman landed this morning.
Israel
Iran has targeted Tel Aviv in a volley of drones and missiles. Loud explosions were heard over Tel Aviv this morning. Israeli air defence systems are working to intercept the rockets.
The Israeli military announced that it had destroyed Khamenei’s underground bunker in Tehran which was also a command and control centre which continued to be used by Iranian officials after Khamenei’s death. The operation involved 50 fighter jets.
A senior Israeli official has told the Times of Israel that the war against Iran is “proceeding much better than expected”. The official added “Nobody could have expected such smooth execution… With such payloads being dropped, and such a complex level of coordination required — no one could have anticipated such success so soon”.
The Israel Defense Forces claim to have demolished a majority of Iran’s ballistic-missile launchers .
United Arab Emirates
The UAE is considering freezing Iranian assets. 86% of all Iranian strikes have hit GCC territory, 49% of which have targeted the UAE.
Of the nine ballistic missiles and 112 drones launched at the UAE today, Emirati air defences intercepted all missiles and 109 drones.
Emirates and Etihad Airways have announced that they are to resume limited flights- including to Heathrow, Paris, and New York. Emirates has announced that it anticipates returning to full network operations in the next few days.
Iran targeted AWS data centres- described by the Financial Times as “symbols of US tech power in the region”- with drone strikes.
Bahrain
Bahrain has announced that since the conflict began, it has destroyed 78 missiles and 143 drones.
Iran targeted the Israeli Embassy in Bahrain with missiles. Iran also struck a hotel and two residential buildings in Bahrain. Drones also targeted AWS facilities in Bahrain.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia has announced it downed at least four drones and three ballistic missiles this morning northeast of Riyadh- targeting the Prince Sultan Air Base which hosts US military assets.
Saudi Arabia is supplying its customers via Aramco’s strategic storage in Japan, the Netherlands, South Korea, China, and Egypt. The capacity of this storage is between 30 and 35 million barrels.
10,000 barrels of crude has been loaded from Al-Muajiz in the first four days of March, as Saudi Arabia attempts to export oil via the Red Sea, utilising its East-West pipeline. The rate of 2,500 barrels a day through this route is a record.
Three VLCCs are in the Red Sea with four more headed that way, suggesting early signs of tanker repositioning.
Qatar
Qatar thwarted a drone attack on Al Udeid Air Base, the biggest US military base in the region, near Doha.
The Qatari energy minister has warned that the war will force the Gulf to stop energy exports within weeks driving oil to $150 per barrel, and that this could ‘bring down the economies of the world’. This caused oil prices to jump 2.6%.
Jordan
Satellite images show that radar systems for US THAAD missile batteries were hit in Jordan.
Syria
The Syrian Civil Aviation Authority has opened a newly reactivated air corridor from Aleppo in the north toward the Mediterranean for use by foreign and domestic airlines. Air traffic is resuming through Aleppo International Airport and flights from Aleppo to Jeddah and Amman are scheduled for today. This could help alleviate regional air travel difficulties.
Russia
Russia is seeing an increased demand for its oil and gas. Dmirty Peskov, a Kremlin spokesperson, said “We are seeing a significant increase in demand for Russian energy resources in connection with the war in Iran. Russia has been and remains a reliable supplier of both oil and gas- including pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas. It also remains capable of guaranteeing the continuity of all deliveries for which contracts have been concluded.” This follows President Putin’s threat yesterday to cut off Europe from its gas exports .
Russia is reportedly providing Iran with intelligence to strike US assets, according to the Washington Post. Since the war began, Russia has given Iran the location of three US military assets, such as warships and aircraft. One official said “It does seem like it’s a pretty comprehensive effort”.
China
China is in talks with Iran to allow crude oil and Qatari LNG to safely travel through Hormuz. 45% of Chinese oil imports come through Hormuz.
Turkey
Turkish President Erdogan condemned Iranian attacks on Azerbaijan and warned Iran not to damage its relations with Turkey.
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan has withdrawn their diplomats from Iran.
Egypt
President Sisi says that Egypt is in a state of ‘near-emergency’ as the Egyptian economy is threatened by the closure of Hormuz. Sisi warned that runaway inflation is a risk, as evidence emerges of short-term investment outflows. The Egyptian pound has fallen to an eight month low against the dollar. A spokesperson for Sisi warned that price-gouging traders could be tried in military courts.
Sisi said on Thursday that Egypt is attempting “honest and sincere” mediation to end the conflict, reportedly cooperating with Turkey and Oman on the effort: “Egypt had tried to prevent this escalation because it knows only too well from experience that wars only result in destruction, ruin and hurting the interests and destiny of the people. Egypt is continuing to try to launch a mediation effort that's both sincere and honest to stop the war because its continuation will exact a high price. This war is a reflection of mistaken calculations and assessments”.
Iraq
Three drones targeted telecommunications towers in northern Iraq.
Iraqi Kurdish authorities say that an attack at an oil field run by US firm HKN Energy forced it to halt production.
Oman
The US Embassy in Muscat was hit by a drone. Bloomberg has described Muscat as ‘ground zero for escape’ as Western expats and tourists leave the region.
Lebanon
Nawaf Salam, the Prime Minister of Lebanon, has warned “a humanitarian disaster is looming”, following massive internal displacement in Lebanon caused by Israeli evacuation orders.
Kuwait
A projectile exploded near Ali al-Salem Air Base.
Kuwait’s Ministry of Defence have announced that 67 army personnel have been injured since the start of the war. This is the highest of any Gulf military.
European Union
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa are set to discuss the conflict with Gulf leaders on Monday.
French President Emmanuel Macron has announced his government will strengthen its cooperation with the Lebanese Armed Forces and provide armored transport vehicles as well as operational and logistical support. Macron tweeted “"Everything must be done to prevent this country, so close to France, from once again being drawn into war… At this moment of great danger, I call on the Israeli prime minister not to expand the war to Lebanon. I call on Iranian leaders not to further draw Lebanon into a war that is not its own”. Macron added “Hezbollah must immediately cease its fire toward Israel. Israel must refrain from any ground intervention or large-scale operation on Lebanese territory”.
The French transport minister announced that 52 French ships were stuck in the Persian Gulf.
Italian energy company Eni is evacuating all foreign staff staff from the Zubair oilfield in Basra, Iraq. French oil company TotalEnergies is also evacuating staff from Basra.
German Chancellor Merz says that ‘uncontrolled immigration’ from Iran must be prevented. Merz said “An endless war is not in our interest. The same applies to a collapse of Iranian statehood or proxy conflicts fought on Iranian soil. Such scenarios could have far-reaching consequences for Europe, including for security, energy supply and migration”.
