Dr. Linda Gavras - van Garderen

The next step is not choosing between methods — but connecting attribution with impact research. If we want actionable climate science, physical insight, statistical attribution and impact analysis must go hand in hand. #ClimateChange #ExtremeWeather #Attribution #storylines

Statistical attribution tells us how the likelihood of event classes changes. But for complex, local extremes, we also need conditional (storyline-based) approaches to understand how climate change alters the physical processes within a specific event.

New News & Views in Nature Communications on conditional attribution and complex extremes. Inspired by the 2024 Valencia flash flood study, I reflect on how we attribute highly convective events in a warming climate. nature.com/articles/s4146…

@Jamierectorcal @CarbonBrief @AyeshaTandon @ClimateDann @ETheokritoff @nickleach0 @WimThiery @RupertS_Smith @FrediOtto Is there any specifick extreme event you're interested in? I might help out with finding publications or research projects of interest for you.

@Jamierectorcal @CarbonBrief @AyeshaTandon @ClimateDann @ETheokritoff @nickleach0 @WimThiery @RupertS_Smith @FrediOtto Hi @Jamierectorcal, thanks for your comment. Indeed these events are also studied. Cold snaps in the Northern Hemisphere tend to come from the breaking of the stratospheric polar vortex, there is a large group of colleagues working on that. -->

Q&A: The evolving science of ‘extreme weather attribution’ | @AyeshaTandon w/ comment from Peter Stott @ClimateDann @etheokritoff @Linimie @nickleach0 Kevin Trenberth @WimThiery @ruperts_smith Delta Merner @FrediOtto #CBarchive Read here: buff.ly/4gooRrW

@Jamierectorcal @CarbonBrief @AyeshaTandon @ClimateDann @ETheokritoff @nickleach0 @WimThiery @RupertS_Smith @FrediOtto We publish all this work, but cannot choose what will be picked up by the media and lands in your view. In a way, free media should ofcourse not be influenced by the scientist in such a way, that would not be good either. I am sure we can agree on that.

@Jamierectorcal @CarbonBrief @AyeshaTandon @ClimateDann @ETheokritoff @nickleach0 @WimThiery @RupertS_Smith @FrediOtto I have also looked into the 2012 SESA drought where there were opposite signs cancelling eachother out a bit. For instance dryer conditions at the moment, but wetter conditions on long term. These are important dynamics to learn about.

@brabantalert Jullie website is niet meer bereikbaar, is er een overload? Als ik op brabantalert.nl klik krijg ik de volgende error: fault filter abort

De stof die lekt in België heet Mercaptaan. Dit is een stof met een sterke onaangename geur die lijkt op rotte kool. Aardgas zelf is geurloos. Deze stof werd voorheen toegevoegd aan gas, zodat we gas kunnen herkennen. Di brabantalert.nl/_meldingen/1605

@yellow_flame De website naar brabantalert werkt niet, misschien een overload, maar de informatie is nu niet beschikbaar.

In het oostelijk deel van Brabant is een NL-Alert verstuurd omdat daar de geurstof van aardgas te ruiken is. Het betreft geen gas(lek). De geuroverlast zal zeker tot 09.00 uur duren. Info via brabantalert.nl/_meldingen/1605 #NLAlert via actueel.nl-alert.nl/alert/3087989a…

SN storylines = constrain dynamics, let thermodynamics evolve freely. ➡️ Powerful for extremes (heatwaves, rainfall, storms) ➡️ Easy to interpret & communicate A must-read for anyone into #ExtremeWeatherAttribution

🚨 New paper! “Spectrally nudged storylines for extreme event attribution” (Feser & Shepherd, 2025). Clear, concise, and educational: what they are, why they matter, and how they differ from scenarios. 🔗 nature.com/articles/s4324…

Sea fog at Scheveningen — nature’s sneaky surprise for beachgoers. Rolling in fast, stealing the sun, chilling the air… and then gone before lunch as if nothing happened. #Scheveningen #SeaFog #CoastalWeather #BeachLife #WeatherPhenomenon #DutchCoast #zeevlam #WeatherWatch

When extreme weather happens, the question is: Did climate change make it more likely? Probabilistic attribution helps us answer that question. Learn more here: #probabilistic-attribution" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">lindavangarderen.com/extreme-weathe… #ClimateChange #ExtremeWeather #EventAttribution #Heatwave #ClimateScience

@helgavanleur Het wordt een kleffe boel morgen, ik heb er zelf ook al even naar gekeken mbv KNMI HARMONIE voorspelling. België krijgt er ook flink van los. linkedin.com/posts/linda-ga…

Waarom is een 30℃(op vakantie) in Spanje anders dan in Nederland? Een hoge dauwpuntstemperatuur geeft de warmte een drukkend gevoel. In de vakantielanden is het dauwpunt vaak lager. Komende dagen wordt het dauwpunt bij ons hoger, dus de lucht vochtiger, dus de warmte drukkender

Data from @KNMI UWC-West HARMONIE-AROME Cy43 (Europe) #heat #weather #Benelux #KNMI #wetbulb #meteorology #publichealth #humidity

Tomorrow: hot 🔥 & muggy 💧 across the Benelux. Side-by-side map shows max 2 m air temp vs max wet-bulb temp (how muggy it’ll feel). Higher WBT = harder to cool & higher heat-stress risk. Full explainer + hi-res map 👉 lindavangarderen.com/2025/08/11/ben…

July 2025 didn't break any global temperature records, but large regional records were still shattered. This is the largest Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly for any month for the Pacific 30-50°N region:

“Adequate quality”? Not helpful. Reading a paper twice? No thanks. I put together a succinct peer review protocol that is to the point: ✔️ Concrete steps ✔️ No vague advice ✔️ Free PDF + checklist lindavangarderen.com/peer-review-pr… #PeerReview #ClimateScience #AcademicLife #OpenScience

Het eerder afgegeven advies over de wolf is verder aangescherpt: blijf weg uit alle landgoederen, bos- en natuurgebieden op de Utrechtse Heuvelrug tussen A12 en A28. Lees het bericht en de actuele adviezen op: provutr.nl/246b12

Lovely explainer on the meteorology of heatwaves for those who would like to go a bit more in depth 🤓🤓